Central Bank of Armenia

Kyrgyzstan and Armenia

October 31, 2023

The Central Bank of Armenia‘s interest rate has been reduced by a further 25 basis points to 9.5%. This was the fourth cut since June, totaling 125 basis points from a peak of 10.75% reached initially last December. Officials are proceeding cautiously in light of the much steeper descent of CPI inflation from 10.3% in […] More

U.S. Equities Not Out of the Woods and Yen Drops After BOJ Policy Tweet

October 31, 2023

Yesterday’s 1.2-1.6% advance in major U.S. stock market indices appears more a case of bottom-fishing than the start of an uptrend. The FOMC’s two-day policy review that starts today isn’t expected to result in an interest rate hike, but the post-meeting press conference will likely strike a hawkish tone in light of recent robust U.S. […] More

Weighted Dollar Strengthens to Three-Week High, While Bitcoin Weakens to Six-Week Low

August 1, 2023

The dollar strengthened overnight by 1.3% against the Australian dollar, 0.9% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.6% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar, 0.5% relative to the Japanese yen, 0.4% against the Swiss franc and sterling, 0.3% versus the Chinese renminbi and Mexican peso, but just 0.2% against the euro. The price of Bitcoin tokens dropped 1.2%. […] More

Armenian Central Bank Rate Cut

June 13, 2023

Armenia got its first central bank interest rate cut since 2020. Early in the pandemic, the Central Bank of Armenia’s refinancing rate had been at 5.25% from May 2020 until an initial hike in February 2021. In the face of accelerating CPI inflation that crested at around an 11-year high of 10.3% last June, the […] More

Softer Dollar Ahead of U.S. CPI Release

June 13, 2023

The dollar in overnight trading lost 0.5%  against sterling, 0.4% versus the euro and Aussie dollar, and 0.3% relative to the Swiss franc. Alternatively, the dollar touched a fresh record high of 24.106 Turkish lira but subsequently unwound the incremental gain and a tad more. Much is riding on today’s U.S. CPI figures, which analysts […] More

Great Relief When U.S. CPI Fails to Exceed Expectations

March 14, 2023

The U.S. consumer price report for February was actually not entirely encouraging. But after a strong of worse-than-expected price news, the 6.0% year-on-year rise of total consumer prices matched expectations and represented the eighth decline in a rose from 6.4% in January and 9.1% last June. That was enough to send U.S. stock futures up […] More

Financial Markets Exhibit Astounding Sensitivity to a Single Inflation Data Point

December 13, 2022

When the wires flashed news that U.S. CPI inflation in November was lower than forecast, share prices soared while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar plunged. The instant reaction of the stock market was significantly reduced in pretty short time, but the sensitivity of financial markets underscored how uncertain traders feel about current […] More

Investors Heartened by Unconfirmed Social Media Reports that Chinese Covid Restrictions Will Be Relaxed Soon

November 1, 2022

Stock markets in the Pacific Rim soared 5.2% in Hong Kong, 2.6% in China, 1.7% in Australia, 1.8% in South Korea, and 1.2% in Singapore. Japan’s Nikkei firmed only 0.3%, by contrast, but equities in German, France, Great Britain, Spain and Italy are all trading 1-2% higher so far today. U.S. future point to a […] More

Armenian Interest Rate Hike to 9.5%

August 2, 2022

The Central Bank of Armenia had cut its refinancing rate in 2020 to a 10-year low of 4.5%. Increases from May 2021 had totaled 325 basis points by the end of that year and have been followed three more moves so far in 2022: 25 basis points in February, 125 bps in March and 50 […] More

A Chinese Cloud Moves Through Financial Markets

August 2, 2022

The game of chicken between House Speaker Pelosi and Chinese President Xi has generated a new run by investors into safer assets. Pelosi appears determined to not scrap her Asian trip stop in Taiwan, and Xi is warning of unspecified reprisals. In overnight market action, share prices closed down 2.4% in Hong Kong, 2.3% in […] More