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Ungovernable U.S. Congress Elevates Uncertainty But Dollar Softens Only Modestly
October 4, 2023
In a startling political development, the U.S. House of Representatives has no Speaker, and it could be quite a while before that critical vacancy is filled. Without that critical step, Congress will be rendered impotent. Ordinarily such a crisis might be expected to weigh discernibly on the dollar, but the other force strongly at play […] More
Strength of Dollar Adds to Downward Pressure on Stocks
October 3, 2023
The weighted DXY dollar is trading at a 45-week high not seen since two days before Thanksgiving 2022. Overnight dollar advances of 0.9% and 0.8% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies and of 0.5% and 0.4% versus the Swiss franc and Mexican peso dwarf the 0.1% upticks relative to the yen and sterling. The […] More
Next week’s menu: September 23-29, 2023
September 22, 2023
Central Banks: In addition to the release of Bank of Japan Board meeting minutes, monetary policies will be reviewed in the Czech Republic, Colombia, Mexico, Hungary and Thailand. Special Event: In the coming final week of the third quarter and U.S. fiscal year, market attention will become increasingly focused on efforts to avert a government […] More
Slow Start to a Week Chocked Full of Central Bank Policy Meetings and Data
September 18, 2023
The dollar softened overnight by 0.2% relative to the yen, Swiss franc, Aussie dollar and sterling and by 0.1% against the euro, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. Stock markets fell 1.4% in Hong Kong, 1.3% in Taiwan, 1.0% in South Korea, and 0.7% in Indonesia and Australia. Share prices so far show losses today of […] More
Slew of Data Released on Final Day of August
August 31, 2023
U.S. personal income and consumption expenditure growth in July defied expectations in opposite ways. Personal spending climbed 0.8% on month (0.6% adjusted for inflation), while income growth slowed to 0.2%. Downtrends in total and core U.S. inflation according to the PCE price deflator partly reversed with the former increased 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% and […] More
Softer Dollar as 2Q U.S. Growth Is Revised Slightly Lower
August 30, 2023
The dollar fell overnight by 0.7% against sterling, 0.4% relative to the euro, 0.3% against the Mexican peso, and 0.2% versus the loonie, Swiss franc, kiwi, and Aussie dollar. Alternatively, the greenback strengthened 0.8% against the Russian ruble and 0.6% against the Turkish lira. Equities around the world are narrowly mixed. U.S. corporate profits last […] More
Mega-Hike in Turkish Central Bank Rate and a Republican Presidential Debate that Changes Little
August 24, 2023
The Central Bank of Turkey’s key interest rate was raised to 25.0% from 17.5%. This biggest move so far followed increases of 250 basis points in July and 650 bps in June and catapults the rate well beyond the prior peak of 19.0% for five months from March 2021 to August 2021. The size of […] More
Weak Data Depresses Long-Term Interest Rates but Not Equities… Dollar Strengthens
August 23, 2023
Ten-year sovereign debt yields dropped overnight by 10 basis points in the U.K., 7 basis points in Germany and 4 basis points in the U.S.. The British FTSE recovered 0.7%. Continental European equities and U.S. stock futures are barely changed. The dollar climbed above Tuesday closing levels by 0.8% relative to sterling, 0.4% versus the […] More
Asian Growth Concerns.. British CPI and Euroland GDP Figures Release.. And Waiting for FOMC Minutes Due Later Today
August 16, 2023
The Chinese economy remains a concern that weighing on its regional neighbors as well. Property prices in China were 0.1% lower in July than a year earlier. That’s follows zero percent in the second quarter and disappointing retail sales, industrial production, corporate investment, and unemployment data reported yesterday. Equity markets today tumbled 1.3% in South […] More
A Quiet Day Ahead of U.S. Price Data Due Tomorrow and Friday
August 9, 2023
Overnight dollar movements range between +0.2% against the peso and Turkish lira to -0.2% versus the euro and renminbi. Equities recovered some ground after Italy’s government scaled back its windfall profits levy on banks. Share prices have rebounded 2.0% in Italy and 0.9%-1.3% in the U.K., Germany, France, and Spain. The Japanese Equities closed down […] More
