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Investors Positioning for Likely Fed Reserve Rate Cut from FOMC Meeting that Starts Tomorrow
December 8, 2025
(162) The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose five basis points overnight in anticipation of a 25-basis point cut likely to be announced on Wednesday. This increase exerted a similarly-sized increase in other 10-year sovereign debt yields, for example of 8 bps in Spain, 7 bps in Spain, 6 bps in Germany and Great Britain, 5 […] More
Next Week’s Menu: November 15 – 21, 2025
November 14, 2025
Central Banks: Monetary policy stances will be reviewed in Jamaica, South Africa, China, Hungary, Indonesia and Iceland. Minutes from the October FOMC meeting will be published, and Williams, Logan, Goolsbee, Kashkari are among the Federal Reserve officials whose public remarks may create headlines. Mann, Pill and Dhringra of the Bank of England, as well as […] More
A Three-Ring Circus of Market Influences
October 30, 2025
A 90-minute meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea resulted in a de-escalation of trade tensions but a rise in national security brinkmanship. While a formal trade deal was not signed, an understanding was reached on several points. The treat of a 100% U.S. tariff on China was dropped, and the fentanyl-related levy […] More
Dollar Revival Extended
October 8, 2025
Driven by sluggish growth and political uncertainties affecting other economies, the dollar climbed overnight by a further 0.6% against the Japanese yen and Korean won, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, Turkish lira and British pound. The intra-day high in the weighted DXY dollar […] More
Next Week’s Menu: September 27 – October 3, 2025
September 26, 2025
Central Banks: In addition to planned monetary policy reviews in Australia, India, Iceland, Egypt, Colombia and Jamaica, the Bank of Japan will publish the results of its quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations as well as a summary of its recent Board meeting. Monetary officials speaking publicly in the coming period will include […] More
First Batch of September PMI Surveys, Fed Official Comments and the OECD Interim Global Economic Outlook
September 23, 2025
There was scant dollar movement overnight of 0.1% or less, and U.S. stock futures are also marking time ahead of a speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Share prices in the Pacific Rim closed up 1.0% in Japan, 1.4% in Taiwan and 1.1% in Indonesia but down by 0.7% in Hong Kong and 0.2% in China. […] More
Second Thoughts about the Scope and Implication of Possible Resumed Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
August 25, 2025
(177) The euphoria of investors following last Friday’s speech from Fed Chairman Powell ebbed quickly. Whereas risk-on behavior surged before the weekend on the signal that a rate reduction in September would be up for likely discussion, today’s market activity has been considerably more muted. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen seven basis points in […] More
GDP Reports and Interest Rate Decisions
July 30, 2025
The dollar strengthened from Tuesday closing levels ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement due within the hour and amid preliminary second-quarter GDP releases that showed faster growth in the United States but slower expansion in Europe. Dollar gains have amounted so far to 0.8% against the Australian dollar and South Korean won, 0.7% […] More
Next Week’s Menu: July 26-August 1, 2025
July 25, 2025
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled at the Federal Reserve and in Japan, Great Britain, Brazil, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and BOJ Governor Ueda hold press conferences. The Bank of England’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report gets published. Federal Reserve forecasts don not get revised this time. Tariff […] More
Chinese GDP and U.S. CPI Highlight Today’s Data Menu
July 15, 2025
A slew of Chinese economic data were reported earlier today, and now investors await U.S. June consumer price figures that are expected to reveal a further acceleration of both total and core inflation. The initial effect of higher tariffs may be clarified, and this release will play a guiding role in what the Fed officials […] More
