National Bank of Poland
Federal Reserve Tops a List of Many Central Banks Deciding Interest Rate Levels
May 7, 2025
Today’s FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT (14:00 EDT) is universally expected to be an unchanged federal funds target range of 4.25-4.50%. Updated macroeconomic forecasts are not scheduled at this meeting, so the focus will be on what Fed Chairman Powell says at his press conference, which begins at 14:30 EDT and, even more influentially, how […] More
Sour Investor Mood Ahead of U.S. PPI Release
March 13, 2025
U.S. equities got only a dead-cat bounce from Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected consumer price data and are back showing red ahead of producer price figures due shortly. With his assortment of U.S. policy about-faces, President Trump has acquired a Grinch-like aura in the world financial community. At this writing, The dollar is down 0.2% against the […] More
Continuing Firestorm of Trump Statements Overwhelms an Otherwise Busy Day of Data Releases and Central Bank Decisions
February 5, 2025
The dollar fell overnight by 0.2% against the euro, Swissy, sterling and Canadian dollar but jumped 1.2% versus China’s yuan and 0.8% relative to the Mexican peso. In other financial market action, Nasdaq futures took a notable hit. Share prices in the Pacific Rim closed up 1.6% in Taiwan, 1.1% in South Korea and 0.5% […] More
Dollar & Equities Lifted by Persistent Hopes of Further Fed Easing
January 17, 2025
A series of U.S. price reports this week either met or undershot analyst predictions. Fears of a Fed interest rate hike have gone away for now, and hopes for one or two cuts later in 2025 remain alive. A second source of market relief came from news that the Israeli cabinet has approved the temporary […] More
Fed Rate Cut Hopes and Several Economic Data Releases
December 4, 2024
By a three to one margin, financial markets anticipate a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed later this month, compared to a minority view that officials may choose not to ease at this time. Several U.S. data releases occurred this Friday: ADP estimates that 146k private-sector jobs were created in November, which is […] More
Republican Victory Lifts Dollar, U.S. Equities, and 10-Year Treasury Yield Sharply
November 6, 2024
Donald Trump’s declared electoral votes topped the magical 270 much more quickly than had been expected. Republicans also recaptured a senate majority and lead in House seat contest with 57 still undecided. Trump has a 3.5 percentage point majority in the popular vote. Jill Stern and RFK Jr. combined siphoned off 0.8 percentage points of […] More
Strong Yen Sales
October 2, 2024
Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy when other central banks scrambled to tame a sharp rise inflationary pressure in 2021-3 had encouraged investors to borrow essentially free money offered in Japan and invest in higher yielding assets elsewhere. Those so-called carry trades are now being reversed and consequently driving down the yen, which slumped 0.9% against the […] More
Speculation that the Fed Cuts By 50 BPS Gaining Traction
September 5, 2024
The cooling U.S. labor market is a main focus with a series of key releases this week. Investors learned yesterday that job openings and quits dropped more sharply in July. Later in the day came the release of the Fed’s Beige Book with nine regional districts showing stagnation or slight economic contraction, and only the […] More
Another Sign of Cooler U.S. Growth, Which Isn’t an Entirely Unwelcome Thing
June 5, 2024
ADP’s monthly calculation of U.S. private-sector employment growth rose by a less-than-anticipated 152k last month. That constitutes the smallest gain since +111k in January. Composite and service-sector purchasing manager readings for the euro area in May of 52.2 (a one-year high) and 53.2 (a 3-month low but the fourth straight score above 50) appear to […] More
Spotlight Today on Central Banks
May 10, 2024
Published minutes from the April European Central Bank Governing Council meeting observe an ongoing and projected moderation of wage pressures, downwardly skewed growth risks, and diminishing public concern shown in survey evidence that inflation in the long term will stay above target. Inflation is projected to be at target by the middle of next year, […] More
