U.S. small business sentiment
Softer Oil Price Leads Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Lower But External Uncertainties Haven’t Gone Away
October 13, 2026
The WTI and Brent oil prices are 1.5% and 1.7% softer than yesterday but still highly elevated. President Trump sprung a pre-midterm surprise, striking a deal with Russian President Putin that suddenly eases sanctions against Russian diesel exports. Trump’s intent is to reduce energy prices for U.S. consumers and businesses, but the size of the […] More
A Quiescent August Thus Far
August 11, 2026
Because so many market participants take holidays at this time of year, August has a reputation in the financial community for being a calm period when not much happens, and the first half of this year’s August has pretty much conformed to that stereotype. It hasn’t always been so, however. It was in August that […] More
Various Data Results and Another Step Closer to Ending the U.S. Federal Government Shutdown
November 11, 2025
Today’s 107th anniversary of the Armistice that ended the First World War is being observed in the United States as Veteran’s Day and in France as Remembrance Day. Banks there will be closed, but stock markets are open. A wide range of economic data have been reported, including British labor market figures, the German ZEW […] More
Political Changes, U.S. Benchmark Revisions of Employment, and Various Inflation Data Releases
September 9, 2025
French Prime Minister Bayrou lost yesterday’s parliamentary vote of confidence, and President Macron must now appoint another politician to head a parliament in which no party holds a majority of seats. The outcome had been widely anticipated given the sharp split in support for the government’s fiscal plans and over immigration, and the no-confidence voting […] More
Investors Following the Bouncing Tariff Ball and Are Meanwhile Surprised by an Unexpected Australian Interest Rate Decision
July 8, 2025
Continuing tariff policy uncertainty is making day-to-day financial market activity very choppy. President Trump had intensified tariff war fears on Monday by disclosing some hefty planned import levies, for instance 40% on goods shipped from Laos, 36% from Thailand, 35% from Serbia, 26% from Kazakhstan, 30% from South Africa, 25% from Japan, South Korea and […] More
Second Thoughts About Monday’s Euphoria as Spotlight Shines on Price Data
May 13, 2025
Nothing has been consistent in this year’s eruption of trade tensions. The scale-back in tariffs that buoyed financial markets yesterday were couched in a temporary context and left net tariff increases since the start of this year still quite significant. Investors await U.S. CPI data this morning, wondering how much they might reflect increased tariff […] More
Where’s the Bottom?
March 11, 2025
Stock market action today has featured some tepid bottom-fishing after Monday’s debacle. In pre-open futures, the DOW, SPX and Nasdaq each bounced 0.3% higher. In Europe, the British Ftse and German Dax are up 0.2% so far, but French and Italian equities are just flat. Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.6%, while markets in Singapore, Taiwan and […] More
Sharp Increase of Euroland Long-Term Interest Rates
February 11, 2025
With 2.5 hours remaining before Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, a scarcity of meaningful data releases today, and Japan closed for National Foundation Day, investors continue to dwell on the inflationary implications of U.S. tariff hikes and the inevitable retaliatory responses from other governments. As threatened, Trump signed an executive order […] More
Equities Up but Dollar Down on Possible Modification of Tariff Plans
January 14, 2025
Bloomberg news is reporting a tactical, but not strategic, rethink by the incoming Trump administration regarding planned tactics. The ultimate goal of very substantial and broadly based tariff increases remains the same. But instead of making the tariff jump in a single front-loaded move, officials are considering to do so at a pace of 2-5% […] More
Waiting Game Except in Gold’s Case
April 9, 2024
Tuesday’s been another wait-and-see day, with little fresh data to provide direction and being just ahead of tomorrow’s release of U.S. consumer price figures and minutes from the last FOMC U.S. monetary policy meeting. The dollar’s a touch softer, declining overnight by 0.5% against the Australian currency, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, 0.3% relative to […] More
