Central Bank Rate Hikes at the Czech National Bank and National Bank of Moldova
November 5, 2026
The CNB 2-week repo rate had been at a cyclical low of 3.5% for 13 months until an initial 25-basis point hike this past June, and a second 25-basis point increase was authorized today, bringing the rate up to 4.0% and matching its end-2024 level.
The National Bank Moldova‘s policy interest rate bottomed briefly at 5.0% in the early months of this year. A quintet of hikes amounting to 150 basis points in May, 50 bps in June, 50 bps in August, 150 bps in September and 200 bps announced today has more than doubled the rate level to 11.0%, which is its highest point in 43 months.
In justifying each of these moves, the released statement put as much, if not more, emphasis on a rising inflation risks than the actual current rates of inflation. Czech CPI inflation last month printed within the 1-3% target at 2.4%. Moldovan inflation started 2026 at 4.9% in January but climbed to 8.6% in September. Both countries have histories of very elevated inflation coming out of the pandemic, 18.0% in the Czech Republic at the September 2022 peak and 34.6% in Moldova in October 2022. Patience is dwindling that energy prices will drop enough and sustainably. El nino’s effect on food costs are another worry. Both central banks revised projected inflation next year higher and are seeing signs of upward creep in expected inflation.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
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