Various Data Results and Another Step Closer to Ending the U.S. Federal Government Shutdown
November 11, 2025
Today’s 107th anniversary of the Armistice that ended the First World War is being observed in the United States as Veteran’s Day and in France as Remembrance Day. Banks there will be closed, but stock markets are open. A wide range of economic data have been reported, including British labor market figures, the German ZEW Institute’s monthly gauge of investor sentiment, and Japan’s current account and sentiment survey of service sector workers.
The full U.S. senate approved the federal funding extension late yesterday, with the same voting pattern (including eight Democrats) worked out earlier. The bill now goes to the House of Representatives and then to the White House for President Trump’s signature. Operations should return Thursday, barring an unforeseen further snag. For now, the agreement is being seen as yet another win for the president. All the Dems got is a debate on adding back some affordable care insurance subsidies but no promises such will lead to any revisions.
The weighted DXY dollar index is unchanged from Monday’s closing value. The greenback is down 0.4% against the Swiss franc and 0.1% versus the euro but up 0.2% against the Australian dollar and 0.1% relative to the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar.
U.S. stock futures have been hobbled in pre-open trading by renewed AI sector jitters. In other stock markets, share prices closed up 0.8% in South Korea, 0.4% in India and 0.2% in Hong Kong but down 0.4% in China, 0.3% in Taiwan and Indonesia, 0.2% in Australia and 0.1% in Japan. An unchanged German DAX so far trails performances in the U.K. (up 0.7%) and Italy (up 0.8%).
Weaker-than-anticipated British labor market data have buoyed hopes that the Bank of England might cut interest rates in December. A 29K jump in unemployment claims was the most in 15 months and accompanied by news of a drop in employment last quarter aand and the lowest reading for regular pay growth in 41 months. A separate British data release for on-year change in same store sales revealed the smallest increase (1.5%) in 5 months. The 10-year British gilt yield responded to these data with a 7-basis point decline.
Germany’s ZEW expectations index unexpectedly slipped 0.8 points to a 2-month low of 38.5 despite marginally less pessimism about current conditions. For the full euro area economy, the ZEW expectations index rose to a 2-month high, and the current conditions reading was its least negative in four months. Also, the latest survey pointed to less expected inflation.
Oil and gold prices are around 0.5% firmer, but Bitcoin had declined 1.1% in price.
Japan reported a record trade surplus in September of JPY 4.483 trillion (4.348 trillion yen when seasonally adjusted). The JPY 17.5 trillion surplus in the first half of the fiscal year (April-Sept) was was still 14% wider than a year earlier, nevertheless. Japan’s economy watchers survey of sentiment among service sector workers improved for a sixth straight month, printing at a 19-month high of 49.1 in October versus a 38-month low of 42.6 last April. Also, Japanese on-year growth in bank lending of 4.1% (a 54-month high) was up from an average 3.0% on-year pace in the first nine months of this year.
The NFIB index of U.S. small business sentiment weakened more than forecast to a 6-month low of 98.2 in October. In this second term of President Trump, only readings of 97.4 in March and 95.8 in April were lower. A month after his reelection, the gauge jumped to a 74-month peak of 105.1 on promised deregulation, but the higher costs of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding future tariff levels have exerted a particularly heavy burden on small companies.
National Australia Bank’s monthly index of business confidence fell a point to a 2-month low of +6, while its companion measure of Australian business conditions improved by a point to a 19-month high of +9. Westpac-MI’s gauge of Australian consumer confidence climbed over 12% in November to a 9-month high.
South African factor output slid 0.5% on month while rising 0.3% on year in September. South Africa’s jobless rate declined a tad last quarter but remained painfully high at 31.9%.
Mexican industrial production dropped for a fourth straight month in September, this time by 0.4% and resulting in a 2.4% 12-month rate of decline.
On-year growth in Turkish retail sales in September of 14.3% was the most in three months and exceeded expectations. Retail sales in Indonesia retail sales that same month fell 2.4% on month and rose 3.7%.
The Irish construction purchasing managers index climbed 4.4 points in October, but at 48.1, remained below the 50 threshold that separates positive from negative activity growth.
Many economies reported price data. Brazilian October consumer price inflation of 4.7% after 5.2% in September was at a 9-month high. Inflation had slowed previously from 12.1% in April 2022 to as low as 3.2% in mid-2023.
Dutch CPI inflation, which peaked in September 2022 at 14.5% and then got as low as -0.4% a year later, eased to a 2-month low of 3.1% last month from 4.1% back in April.
Hungarian CPI inflation last month held at September’s 4.3% level.
A 5.5% consumer inflation rate in Colombia last month was the highest in 13 months.
From a peak of 18.0% in September 2022, Czech CPI inflation receded to an 85-month low of 1.8% this past April and settled into a corridor of 2-something percent, including a 2-month high of 2.5% in October.
In Mongolia, CPI inflation has lately revived from 8.1% in July to an 8-month high of 9.2% in October.
Lithuanian producer prices rose 0.3% in October but matched September’s 7-month low of -0.6% compared to the year-earlier month.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: British labor market data, Euroland and German ZEW expectations index, Japanese current account and economy watchers index, U.S. small business sentiment
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