Deeper Analysis
October 2025 in Figures
October 31, 2025
Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined substantially in the U.K. and Canada but experienced much smaller net changes during October in other economies in the table below. A 25-basis point cut in the federal funds target late in the month contrasted with decisions in Japan and Euroland not to change policy. Central bank policy reviews were […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: November 1-7, 2025
October 31, 2025
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed next week in the U.K., Australia, Sweden, Norway, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Moldova, Georgia, Malaysia, and Czech Republic. Governors Bailey of the BOE, Bullock of the RB A, and Macklem of the BOC will hold press conferences. Daly, Mesalem and Williams of the Fed speak publicly, and Bank of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Witching Hour
October 31, 2025
Halloween 2025 finds the dollar in treat mode, with overnight gains of 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus sterling, 0.2% relative to the loonie, Aussie dollar and Swiss franc and 0.1% against the euro. While many stock markets are closing the week on a down note, U.S. stock futures an hour before the opening bell […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Three-Ring Circus of Market Influences
October 30, 2025
A 90-minute meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea resulted in a de-escalation of trade tensions but a rise in national security brinkmanship. While a formal trade deal was not signed, an understanding was reached on several points. The treat of a 100% U.S. tariff on China was dropped, and the fentanyl-related levy […] More
Central Bank Watch
Another Canadian Central Bank Interest Cut but Perhaps the Last One of the Cycle
October 29, 2025
The Canadian policy interest rate has been reduced by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This was the fourth such cut of 2025 and comes on top of 175 bps of easing during the final seven months of 2023. A statement explaining today’s decision and updated forecasts anticipates slow growth of less than 1.5% in both […] More
Central Bank Watch
Thoughts Regarding the FOMC Statement and Powell Press Conference
October 29, 2025
Two things unrelated to the characterization of current economic conditions pop up in today’s statement: The vote to cut confirm the 25-basis point interest rate cut was a spit one. Governor Miran as in September voted to reduce the interest rate by a larger 50 basis points, which was predictable. The possibility of some committee […] More
Central Bank Watch
October 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview
October 29, 2025
A second consecutive 25-basis point cut of the federal funds rate target range to 3.75-4.00% is pretty universally expected after today’s 7th of eight 2025 scheduled policy reviews by the Federal Open Market Committee. At the first five reviews this year, monetary easing was on pause because the disinflationary process had stalled with inflation still […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Very Busy Three Days Ahead
October 29, 2025
The final three days of October are full of events that financial markets are following closely: A slew of companies are reporting 3Q earnings, including META, Alphabet, Microsoft, Caterpillar, UBS, CVS, Starbucks, ADP and Verizon. Nvidia beat expectations, sending its stock up 5% overnight thus far. Ahead of the FOMC interest rate announcement today, President […] More
Central Bank Watch
Krygyzstani Central Bank Interest Rate Cut
October 28, 2025
There’s been a 75-basis point increase in the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan’s policy interest rate to 10.0%. This move follows an initial 25-bp increase in July, and together these moves unwind one percentage point of the 500-basis point reduction implemented in three steps between November 2022 and May 2024. Consumer price inflation in the Kyrgyz […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Attention To Trump’s Continuing Asian Tour but Also Upcoming Central Bank Decisions
October 28, 2025
U.S. President Trump and Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, apparently hit it off very well. After inking deals on trade and rare earths, President Trump proclaimed the United States to be “an ally at the strongest level” of Japan. The completion of a U.S. trade deal with China later this week also seems a […] More
