German IFO Business climate index

Weather Extremes, Covid, and Sino-U.S. Government Talks on Investors’ Minds

July 26, 2021

The starting round of high level talks between China and the United States has not gone well. Much of the world including both those countries are experiencing extreme weather conditions this summer. Talk of emerging from the Covid pandemic is looking premature as reported infections rise in many places. In the United States, such reached […] More

Signs of Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy Patience

June 24, 2021

Overnight dollar movements were mostly down but slight in magnitude. The U.S. currency slid 0.4% against the Mexican peso, 0.3% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.2% versus the yen, and 0.1% against the euro, Aussie dollar, loonie and yuan. The dollar also rose 0.5% versus the Turkish lira and 0.3% against sterling. Relative to […] More

Dollar Slips to Lowest Level Since First Week of 2021

May 25, 2021

Several Fed officials speaking yesterday reaffirmed commitment to current stance for some time longer. In response, the dollar fell 0.4% against the euro, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and its weighted index, and by 0.1% relative to the loonie and sterling. The dollar also firmed 0.1% against the Japanese […] More

Long-Term Interest Rates Edge Higher

April 26, 2021

Ten-year sovereign debt yields this Monday are three basis points higher in the U.K. and United States, two bps higher in German and up a basis point in Japan. The dollar is marginally softer but above its overnight low on a weighted basis. The key EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationships are unchanged. The peso is also […] More

Dollar Ending Week on an Up-Note But Euro Steady

March 26, 2021

The dollar overnight appreciated another 0.35% on a trade weighted basis, but strength wasn’t even this time. The dollar rose 0.6% against the yen and 1.0% relative to the Turkish lira. The key EUR/USD relationship is unchanged, and the greenback has slipped 0.4% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, 0.3% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar […] More

Risk Aversion on Adverse Coronavirus News

October 26, 2020

The week before the U.S. election opened with equity markets on the defensive, led by drops of 2.4% so far in the German Dax, a 0.8% decline in China’s Shanghai Composite index, and losses of 0.7% in France, Italy, and South Korea. There are holiday closures in New Zealand for Labour Day, Austria for National […] More

More Evidence of Deep and Global Economic Downturn

April 24, 2020

Dollar movements on the final day of the week have been comparatively modest and somewhat mixed against other major currencies. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil extended its rebound but is currently still down 7.6% since last Friday’s close. Gold is little changed. Further substantial declines of 9-10 basis points have occurred today […] More

Getting Down to Crunch Time in Sino-U.S. Trade Talks

February 22, 2019

Stocks fell Thursday on some disappointing U.S. economic data but have rebounded Friday, as investors are choosing to believe that Sino-U.S. trade talks will reach an agreement averting an escalation of the tariff war.  Share prices rose 1.9% in China, 1.2% in Hong Kong, and 0.5% in Australia, and European bourses are up by 0.5% […] More

Market Eyes U.S. Tax Bill

December 19, 2017

President Trump’s signing of a broad tax bill appears fairly imminent. The House of Representatives will vote on the bill today; passage is assured. A senate partisan vote, where Republicans hold a narrower majority, could occur late today and most likely no later than Wednesday. Equities in Asia mostly advanced overnight after a strong U.S. […] More

Euro Dips Briefly Below $1.05

February 22, 2017

Concerns that European nationalism may break the EU apart caused the euro to dip to an overnight and 6-week low of $1.0493 and 10-year sovereign debt yields to fall five basis points in The Netherlands, 4 bps in Germany, 3 bps in France, Italy and Britain. Equity markets in Continental Europe are down 1.0% in […] More

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