National Bank of Serbia
Divergent Interest Rate Decisions, Geopolitical Concerns, and Higher U.S. PPI Inflation Than Forecast
December 12, 2024
Central bank interest rates have been hiked by 100 basis points in Brazil and 50 bps in Ukraine but were also cut today by 50 bps in Switzerland and 25 bps in Euroland. The threats of coming tariff hikes and other sharp diversions in long-established U.S. policies have other economies around the world on edge. […] More
U.S. Election Reaction Sharing Spotlight with Central Banks
November 7, 2024
The Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut its interest rate target today by 25 basis points, is but one of several central banks in today’s news. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate was lifted late yesterday by 50 basis points. The Bank of England’s base rate has been cut today by an […] More
25-Basis Point Interest Rate Cut By ECB; Coming Fed Rate Unlikely to Exceed That Increment
September 12, 2024
Like yesterday’s release of U.S. consumer prices, today’s producer price data pose no resistance to an initial 25-basis point cut of the federal funds rate but are unlikely to warrant a larger reduction by the Federal Open Market Committee next Wednesday. Overall producer prices went up 0.2% versus an expected 0.1%, but their level was […] More
Interest Rate Cuts in Ukraine and Serbia
June 13, 2024
The National Bank of Ukraine policy interest rate was lowered to 13.0% from 13.5%. In the early months after Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the interest rate had been catapulted from 10% to 25% and then kept at that level from June 2022 until a reduction in July 2023. Ten percentage points of […] More
Central Bank Decisions and Price Data
June 13, 2024
The FOMC‘s June interest rate decision, updated forecasts, and press conference yesterday left an impression that was not quite as hawkish as feared. The likelihood of three rate cuts that had been signaled as recently as March is now remote, but the possibility of one cut before yearend is still clearly in play, and even […] More
Spotlight Today on Central Banks
May 10, 2024
Published minutes from the April European Central Bank Governing Council meeting observe an ongoing and projected moderation of wage pressures, downwardly skewed growth risks, and diminishing public concern shown in survey evidence that inflation in the long term will stay above target. Inflation is projected to be at target by the middle of next year, […] More
U.S. PPI and ECB Rate Announcement Fail To Clarify Confusion about Future Inflation and Central Bank Interest Rates
April 11, 2024
Central bankers have consistently sent a message that disinflation will be a bumpy process and that monetary policy normalization will hinge on growing confidence that inflation targets will be fully resecured. In other words, time and evolving information will dictate what is done. It is not apparent if inflation will meet these parameters without a […] More
Investors Focused on Monetary Policies, Inflation, and Biden’s State of the Union Address Tonight
March 7, 2024
Scheduled monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank, National Bank of Serbia, and Central Bank of Malaysia left key interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, 6.5%, and 3.0%, respectively. No changes had been expected. Bank of Japan Board member Nakagawa made remarks affirming that Japan’s economy is closer to achieving the central bank’s inflation target […] More
A Pause in the Action
February 8, 2024
While equities in China (+1.3%), Japan (+2.1%), France (+0.6% so far), Italy (+0.6%), Spain (+0.5%) and Germany (+0.4%) followed yesterday’s upbeat U.S. example, U.S. futures have paused on technical considerations. China’s gain equated to a loss for Hong Kong today of 1.3% and India of 1.0%. Pakistan’s election today has been marred by outbreaks of […] More
Continuing Uncertainty Saps Financial Markets of Direction
November 9, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell‘s remarks yesterday didn’t touch on current monetary policy, but he’ll be speaking publicly again today. Investors are hoping for clarification regarding what the Fed is likely to do. Two earthquakes of slightly more than 5.0 on the Richter scale in the oil-producing region of Texas injects confusion into the next move in […] More
