Data Cyclone
December 10, 2024
This Tuesday was greeted with a heap of price and industrial production data, a downward revision to U.S. unit labor cost growth, Chinese trade figures, and central bank rate decisions in Australia and Armenia.
The dollar strengthened overnight by 1.1-1.2% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.6% relative to the yen, and 0.4% versus the euro and Swiss franc.
10-year sovereign debt yields are up five basis points in the United Kingdom, three bps in the United States, two bps in Japan and a basis point in Germany.
Gold and oil prices have climbed 0.9% and 0.8%, while Bitcoin is 1.7% lower in price.
The South Korea Kospi index rebounded 2.4%. U.S. major stock indices are modestly firmer. Equities rose 0.5% in Japan and 0.6% in China but closed down 0.6% in Taiwan. The British FTSE and Paris CAC, in contrast, are down 0.7% and 1.0%.
The deregulatory agenda of the incoming Trump administration in the United States elicited a sharply positive reaction in small business sentiment, which leaped 8.8% in November to 41-month high. More good U.S. news arrived in revised third-quarter productivity and unit labor cost figures. Non-farm productivity advanced 2.2% at an annualized rate and was positive for an eighth straight quarter. Annualized growth in unit labor costs was revised sharply lower to just 0.8%, resulting in a year-on-year increase of just 2.2%.
German consumer price inflation of 2.2% in November was unrevised from the preliminary estimate and represents a 4-month high. A 44-month low of 1.6% was touched in September just two years after the 8.8% peak in September 2022.
Dutch CPI inflation climbed half a percentage point to a 16-month high of 4.0% last month. Such had imploded from 14.5% in September 2022 to -0.4% in October 2023.
Czech and Hungarian consumer price inflation in November of 2.8% and 3.7% respectively matched a 6-monnth high and set a 4-month high.
Brazilian CPI inflation last month ticked 0.1 percentage point higher to a 14-month high of 4.9% but stayed well below the 12.1% peak in September 2022.
Danish CPI inflation stayed at October’s 4-month high of 1.6%, well down from 10.1% back October 2022.
In Norway, consumer price inflation slid 0.2 percentage points to a 47-month low in November, and a zero percent producer price inflation rate was non-negative for the first time since August.
Greece’s 2.4% rate of CPI inflation was the same as October’s result and otherwise the lowest since June.
Moldovan CPI inflation, which crested at almost 35% in the final quarter of 2022, was 5.4% last month, its highest 12-month increase in a year.
Egyptian CPI inflation fell a percentage point in November to a 23-month low of 25.5%.
Investors await U.S. releases of CPI tomorrow, PPI on Thursday, and import prices on Friday for some final guidance regarding the Fed’s interest rate decision next week.
Many countries reported industrial production figures today. Italy’s October results (unchanged from September’s level and down 3.6% year-on-year) was representative of Europe’s sluggish economy. In Finland, industrial production rebounded 0.8% following a 1.9% drop in September but was just 0.6% above the October 2023 level. A 1.2% year-on-year rise in Bulgarian industrial production had broken a streak of 20 straight sub-zero percent 12-month changes but proved short-lived, as today’s report showed IP 1.6% lower in October than a year earlier. A 1.3% year-0n-year decline in Austrian industrial production extended that country’s streak of negative year-on-year movement to ten months. Turkish industrial production in October dropped 0.9% on month and 3.1% on year, making such the fifth negative 12-month change in a row. Greek industrial production likewise was 2.9% below the October 2023 level, and a 2.0% year-on-year drop in Swedish industrial production was the seventh decline in a row.
Better news was reported from Slovenia, a 42-month high 3.4% on-year rise in industrial production, and South Africa where factory output rose 0.4% on month and 0.8% on year. The Sacci-compiled South African index of business sentiment improved last month to a 109-month high.
China’s trade surplus widened in November to a 5-month high of $97.4 billion.
In Australia, business confidence slipped to a 2-month low, and business conditions sank to the worst reading of this century.
Japanese machine tool orders were 9.3% higher in October than a year earlier, their best reading since a 9.7% advance in June.
The Reserve Bank of Australia again left the Official Cash rate at 4.35%, the peak first established in November 2023. However, the accompanying statement included an added reflection that official had become more confident that inflation is poised to return sustainably to the 2-3% target.
The Central Bank of Armenia’s refinancing rate was cut another 25 basis points to 7.0%, its lowest level since September 2021 and 350 basis points below the peak of 10.5% maintained from December 2022 until an initial reduction in August 2023. Although CPI inflation had risen from 0.6% in October to 1.4% in November, that still below the target of 4.0%. Moreover, core inflation remains below 1%.
Copyright 2024, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Central Bank of Armenia, Chinese trade balance, Italian industrial production, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S. productivity and unit labor costs
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