Atypically High Amount of Data Reported This Monday

September 9, 2019

Data releases rather than market action were in today’s spotlight.

Japanese real GDP growth last quarter was revised downward by a half percentage point to an annualized 1.3% from the first quarter. Business investment and exports were weaker than estimated initially. Real GDP was 1.0% greater than in the second quarter of 2018, and the GDP price deflator posted an on-year rise of only 0.4%.

After a 14.2% leap in Japanese bankruptcies from a year earlier in July, such recorded a 6.3% on-year drop in August.

Japan’s monthly economy watchers survey in August was mixed. Although the current index rebounded 1.6 points above July’s 38-month low, the economy watchers expectations index slumped 4.6 index points to 39.7.

Japan posted a 2.00 trillion yen unadjusted current account surplus in July, similar in size to the JPY 2.03 trillion surplus a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted surplus of JPY 1.647 billion was 15.2% smaller in July than June’s surplus.

On-year growth in Japanese bank lending slowed to 2.1% in August.

Monthly British GDP in July calculated from the supply side swung back into positive territory, suggesting that GDP in the current quarter is on track to advance about 0.3%.

British construction output rebounded 0.5% in July from a 0.7% drop in June but was only 0.3% above its year-earlier level, down from a 4.0% year-on-year advance as recently as March.

British industrial production rose 0.1% in July but posted a 3-month low year-on-year change (-0.9%).

The U.K. goods and services trade deficit was only GBP 219 million in July. As in June, such is much smaller than the shortfalls earlier this year.

The German EUR 22.1 billion current account surplus in July was 59% wider than that in July 2018, and the seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of EUR 20.2 billion was well above the first-half average monthly surplus of EUR 18.4 billion.

Euroland’s Sentix gauge of investor expectations recovered unexpectedly to a 2-month high of minus 11.1 in September from a 58-month low of -13.7 in August.

The Bank of France’s monthly manufacturing sentiment index improved 3 points in August but the indices for construction and service sector activities were unchanged. Officials at the central bank believe that real GDP is on course to post growth of 0.3% in 3Q19.

China’s trade surplus in August of $34.84 billion was down from $44.6 billion in July and represents a 4-month low. Exports were 2.6% greater than a year earlier versus a 2.6% drop in imports.

New Zealand’s real manufacturing quarterly index sank 2.7% last quarter, the first drop in 3 quarters. Australian home loans in July beat expectations.

Ireland’s construction purchasing managers index recovered to a 3-month high in August from a 71-month low in July.

The dollar fell overnight by 0.5% against sterling, 0.3% versus the Australian dollar, 0.2% relative to the kiwi, yuan and loonie, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro. The greenback firmed 0.2% against the Swiss franc, 0.1% versus the yuan and is unchanged in value relative to the yen.

Ten-year sovereign debt yields are up 6 basis points in the U.K. and 3 bps each in the United States and Germany.

The prices of oil and gold rose 0.7% and 0.2% overnight.

Stock markets in Europe fell 0.6% in the U.K. but rose 0.3% in Germany. Among Asian markets, equities closed up 0.6% in Japan and India and 0.8% in China.

As promised British Prime Minister Johnson suspended parliament temporarily as of tomorrow.

Mexican CPI inflation slowed to a 32-month low of 3.16% last month.

Copyright 2019, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.



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