Central Bank Watch
Fourth Brazilian Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Since March
August 5, 2026
Four 25-basis point rate cuts at the Central Bank of Brazil have lowered such to 14.0%, which still remains far above the latest 12-month 4.6% rate of consumer price inflation. Today’s reduction was decided unanimously, and more cautious downward moves are to be expected in coming months. A three percentage point inflation corridor is targeted, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Several Claims that an Interim Deal To Open Hormuz Could Be Imminent
August 5, 2026
On the heels of yesterday’s record U.S. equity market closes, financial markets are feeling optimistic. Axios reports that a 60-day deal that would open the Strait of Hormuz involving the U.S., Oman and Iran is very close. Sources in Qatar claim that a draft has been written, and both President Trump and his Treasury Secretary, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Oil’s Price Floats Back Above $80/Barrel Level
August 4, 2026
Monday’s U.S. stock market rally had been triggered by another last-minute pull-back in President Trump’s threat to annihilate Iran militarily. Yet again, his willingness to give diplomatic talks one more chance was quickly met with a different narrative with Iran that direct talks between the two countries have not resumed. They are only speaking to […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lower Oil Price and Many July Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Surveys Reported
August 3, 2026
(128) President Trump repeated the prior weekend’s geopolitical gambit. Like then, he had threatened before the weekend that massive military strikes against Iran were imminent, only to rescind that order and announce that a diplomatic approach will be tried instead. In both instances, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has traded 6.8% lower […] More
Deeper Analysis
July 2026 in Figures
July 31, 2026
The net July changes in the table below for the most part understates the extreme financial market turbulence caused by the re-escalating Middle East war, resulting sharp rise in the price of oil, rollout of a new U.S. tariff plan, extreme fires ravaging Europe and other parts of the world, and new regime at the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: August 1-7, 2026
July 31, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in India, Brazil, Mexico, Moldova, Romania, Armenia and the Czech Republic. Holidays & Events: Canada observes an August Civic Holiday on August 3, and OPEC+ ministers meet tomorrow. Purchasing Manager Surveys: Load of July surveys will be reported during the period. Scheduled U.S. Economic Data Releases: Quarterly productivity […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
WTI Oil Back Above $85, Signs of Higher Inflation, and Japanese Intervention But No Rate Hike
July 31, 2026
What started as a war between the U.S. and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other has broadened into a regional conflict that threatens to engulf Europe with a triple shipping choke-hold at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Suez Canal. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investors Absorbing U.S. and Euroland GDP Data and Expressing Disappointment that Fed Didn’t Raise its Interest Rate
July 30, 2026
In the wake of the Fed’s policy decision, equity markets have swung widely, and the dollar has declined, with additional overnight losses of 0.9% against the South Korean won, 0.8% relative to the kiwi, 0.4% relative to the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and Mexican peso, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and Indian rupee, and 0.1% […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Press Conference
July 29, 2026
The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% where such has been since a reduction of 25 basis points announced last December 10th. This was the fifth of eight scheduled policy reviews in 2026, and each of them has ended with the same result. Whereas the previous meeting in […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
July 29, 2026
It’s almost certainly only a matter of time before the federal funds targeted interest rate is increased to counter above-target inflation and the growing risk of a rise in medium-term expected inflation. Seven and a half months have passed since the cut announced on December 10 put the target at 3.50-3.75%. Compared to then, monthly […] More
