New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Diversity of Central Bank Rate Decisions… Dollar and Equities Mixed

November 18, 2021

Central bank officials today cut Turkey’s one-week repo rate by 100 basis points, left record-low policy interest rates unchanged in the Philippines and Indonesia, and are widely expected to announce an interest rate hike in South Africa. This year’s unexpectedly sharp acceleration of inflation to multi-year and multi-decade highs around the world has overshadowed Covid […] More

Central Bank Watch

Icelandic Central Bank Rate Hike

November 17, 2021

The Central Bank of Iceland‘s policy interest rate has also been raised multiple times in response to the recent acceleration of inflation. Today’s hike to 2.0% from 1.5% increased the ante following 25-basis point advances in May, August, and October. “The inflation outlook has deteriorated somewhat since August, owing in part to more persistent global […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Persistent Global Pressure on Prices, Some More Central Bank Hikes, and the Dollar Touches Its Firmest Level Since July 2020

November 17, 2021

The weighted DXY dollar index touched 96.24 overnight, its strongest level since the first week of July 2020, but has settled back to show no net changed. Relative to Tuesday closing levels, the dollar is down 0.3% relative to the kiwi, yuan, peso, and sterling and by 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro, yen and loonie. The […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Sixth Hungarian Central Bank Rate Hike

November 16, 2021

Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s base rate was raised 30 basis points today to 2.1%. The increase and its size matched expectations. This cycle of gradual increases began in June, hasn’t missed a month, and thus far totals 150 basis points. More tightening is to be expected, as officials served notice that projected inflation in 2022 will […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Xi/Biden, Central Banking Signals, and a Big Line-Up of U.S. Data Releases Today

November 16, 2021

The virtual summit between the Presidents of China and the United States exceeded three hours. The talks were reportedly civil but didn’t yield newsworthy compromises on the key contentious issues. The Fed and Bank of England seem closer to an interest rate lift-off than the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan. Minutes published from […] More

Deeper Analysis

Two Characteristics of U.S. Inflation Spikes When Caused by Supply Bottlenecks

November 15, 2021

The former economics Nobel prize-winner and current New York Times OP-Ed columnist Paul Krugman wrote a piece last week asserting that elevated inflation this year more closely resembles patterns in 1947 than in 1979. It’s an interesting take, original at first glance yet obvious when one reflects on the the root cause of what’s driving […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Time for Waiting

November 15, 2021

Meaningful data were reported Monday in Japan and China, but investors chose to maintain an advent posture pending other pieces of information that could emerge in the next 24-hour period. These include a virtual summit between Presidents Joe Biden of the U.S. and Xi Jinping of China that is intended to quell mounting tension between […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: November 13 – 19, 2021

November 12, 2021

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled in Turkey, South Africa, Iceland, Indonesia, Hungary and the Philippines. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting will be published, and RBA Governor Lowe will be speaking. Scheduled U.S. Economic Data Releases: Retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, building permits, import prices, the NAHB housing […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Reserve Bank of Peru Lifts Interest Rate by Half a Percentage Point

November 12, 2021

At the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, the Board of Directors felt compelled to react to a 0.6 percentage point further acceleration of CPI inflation to 5.8% in October, its highest level since the start of 2009. Officials attribute the rise mostly to external factors but also mentioned the Peruvian Sol’s recent depreciation. Their hope […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Mexico’s Overnight Interbank Rate Lifted Again

November 12, 2021

Officials at the Bank of Mexico by a vote of four to one authorized a fourth straight 25-basis point hike of the overnight interbank rate to 5.0%. Before the magnitude of global inflationary pressure was understood, the rate last February had been sliced by 25 basis points to 4.0% to culminate 325 basis points of […] More

css.php