New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Much Stronger Oil Price Lifts Dollar Especially Against Rand Following Surprise Interest Rate Decision by South African Reserve Bank
July 23, 2026
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil catapulted around 5% higher overnight and is presently a bit above $91.0 per barrel.The price had fallen previously as low as $68.58 on the first day of this month. Iran and U.S. forces traded shots for a twelfth straight day, but today’s big development in that war […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Elusive Peace in the Middle East Promoting Choppy Financial Market Conditions
July 22, 2026
The Trump Administration has no inclination to resume talks so long as the Houthi threat to halt traffic out of the Red Sea remains. Resumed military conflict has now stretched to 11 days, and this geopolitical purgatory is getting mimicked by oscillating financial market movements from one day to the next. The lurches haven’t necessarily […] More
Central Bank Watch
Rate Cut to 5.75% at the National Bank of Hungary
July 21, 2026
The National Bank of Hungary’s key interest rate today underwent its second 25-basis point reduction in a row. The decision, albeit not without some risk, was the expected one and accompanied by hint of yet another cut in August. The argument for monetary easing is that Hungarian consumer price inflation slowed further in June to […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Hopes of Another Ceasefire as Data Shows Sentiment Boost During the Last One
July 21, 2026
Iran and the United States traded military strikes for a tenth straight day even as lagged economic data underscore the economic benefits of the last ceasefire. Meanwhile, market participants wonder how much longer central banks will wait while the war remains unresolved. The current price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, $84.60 per barrel, represents […] More
Deeper Analysis
Consumer Price Results Last Month Around the World Varied
July 20, 2026
After today’s morning rundown of news, data releases and financial market changes, Canada released June consumer price figures, showing the biggest month-on-month drop (-0.4%) since the Covid-distorted month of April 2020 and a 0.4 percentage point slowdown in the 12-month rate of increase to 2.8%. That level exceeded the 2.0% target for the ninth time […] More
Deeper Analysis
A Subtle But Meaningful Shift in Monetary Policy-Making Seemingly Favored by the New Fed Chairman
July 20, 2026
Fed Chairman Warsh fully embraces the mission of price stability that the congress has assigned to the Federal Reserve but aims to implement vast modifications to how the central bank pursues its mission. Five broad task forces have been set up to broadly review and make radical changes in a wide range of areas towards […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Different Spins on the War in Iran, Now in its 21st Week
July 20, 2026
(130) If one listens to the revelations of diplomatic sources, a breakthrough to secure peace is just around the corner. This low chatter has been around since the war began in late February, and it’s intent seemingly has been to contain upward pressure on oil prices and to maintain hope in world financial markets. As […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: July 18-24, 2026
July 17, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary authorities at the European Central Bank and in Indonesia, Turkey, Hungary, South Africa, China, Russia and Kazakhstan will be reviewing their policy interest rates. ECB President holds a press conference. Special Event: British Prime minister resigns on Monday and will be succeeded by the new Labour Party leader Andy Burnham. The new […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Concerns About AI Taking Center Stage
July 17, 2026
With wars in the Middle East hopelessly stalemated and central bankers proceeding with caution in responding to elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, the world financial community has turned its attention to Artificial Intelligence for fresh material from which to react. What investors see has created alarm: enormous business spending to build data centers intended […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Cloudier Near-Term Prospects for Central Bank Interest Rates
July 16, 2026
In a widely expected action and by a unanimous vote, the central bank rate in one country, South Korea, has been raised for the first time since January 2023 (see my review). In another (New Zealand), which on July 8th experienced its first rate tightening since May 2023, a key central bank official said more […] More
