Disparate Stock Market Moves
October 8, 2024
The dollar was mixed overnight, sliding 0.2% against the yen and euro, but rising 0.5% relative to the Chinese yuan, 0.4% against the Australian dollar, and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, kiwi, peso and Turkish lira.
10-year sovereign debt yields dipped a basis point in the U.S. and Japan, held steady in Germany and Great Britain, and edge a basis point higher in Italy and France.
More diverse movement occurred in global stock markets. The reopened Shanghai Composite jumped 4.6%, and markets in Indonesia and India advanced 0.5% and 0.7%. Alternatively, Hong Kong’s market tumbled back 9.4%, and share prices also fell in South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and Singapore. In Europe, major stock markets have fallen 0.5-1.2%, but U.S. stock futures are in the black as investors await U.S. trade figures later today and price data and FOMC minutes later in the week.
WTI oil has settled back 2.2%. Gold is 0.3% lower, while bitcoin is up a bit.
Japan experienced a record monthly current account surplus in August of JPY 3.804 trillion seasonally unadjusted. The seasonally adjusted surplus of JPY 3.017 billion was above the JPY 2.19 trillion monthly average in January-July.
The Japanese economy watchers index, a gauge of sentiment among service sector workers, fell to a more pessimistic 47.8 reading in September from a 5-month high of 49.0 in August and 51.8 last December.
Japanese real household spending posted a smaller on-year drop of 1.9% in August than had been anticipated. Average cash earnings were 3.0% higher year-on-year that month but 0.6% lower when adjusted for inflation.
Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia policy review justify keeping a tight monetary policy even though interest rates at other central banks have begun to ease and Australian total inflation has dipped under 3.0%. Core CPI remains above the 2-3% target range. The National Australia Bank’s monthly measure of business confidence printed at a 2-month high of -2 in September, and the index of current business conditions was at a 5-month high.
Swedish consumer price inflation of 1.6% in September constituted a 38-month low, and core CPI of 1.2% was its lowest since December 2020, below the 2.0% target, and down from an end-2022 peak of 10.2%.
Latvian CPI inflation of 0.5% in September was its lowest in four months and down from a 26-year high of 24.1% in September 2022.
The preliminary estimates of Dutch consumer price changes in September of -0.5% versus August and a 3-month low 3.5% year-on-year pace were not revised.
German industrial production jumped 2.9% in August, reversing a 2.9% drop during July. The increase was the steepest in 34 months, and the resulting 2.7% year-on-year decline was the smallest in a year. Average output in June-August was 1.3% below the previous 3-month average level.
The monthly index of same store sales compiled by the British Retail Consortium posted its largest year-on-year rise (1.7%) in a half year.
The French current account deficit of EUR 641 million in August was 68% narrower than a year earlier.
The U.S. goods & services trade deficit narrowed to a 5-month low of $70.4 billion in August (-74.122 billion seasonally adjusted). The year-to-date gap of $576 billion was 9% wider than the deficit in January-August 2023.
U.S. small business sentiment printed at a 2-month high in September but still 6.6% below its long-term average level as perceived uncertainty ahead of next month’s election swelled to a record high.
Copyright 2024, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: German industrial production, Japanese current account and real household spending, Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, Swedish CPI
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