January 2024 in Figures
February 1, 2024
10-year sovereign debt yields in Europe and Japan posted larger net increases than did the comparable U.S. Treasury yield last month. None of the major central banks in the table below changed their interest rate benchmark during the month. Among other central banks, cuts were made of 100 basis points in Chile, 50 bps in Brazil, Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan, and 25 basis points in Israel, Peru, and Colombia. Turkey’s benchmark increased by another 250 basis points to 42.6%.
It had been a good month for equities in most economies, gains were trimmed back significantly on the final business day. The British Ftse ended up losing net ground for the month. The U.S. combination of comparatively strong economic activity with faster-than-anticipated disinflation exerted a positive knock-on effect on the dollar’s external value, and the currency’s broadly based extended appreciation motored on in spite of the increasing plausibility of former President Trump’s return to the White House. In that scenario, a more forceful America First approach to trade, immigration and foreign policies would likely torpedo the post-WWII international monetary system. Many other pillars that underpin dollar hegemony could unravel in the process, but such risks are not thus far being discounted.
The conflicts between Israel and Hamas and between Russia and Ukraine broadened during January, contributing to some upward pressure on world oil prices. Crypto and gold closed little changed for the month.
| 10-Yr Yield | 12/29/23 | 01/31/24 | January Chg |
| U.S. | 3.88% | 3.92% | +4 Basis Points |
| Germany | 2.02% | 2.16% | +14 |
| Japan | 0.60% | 0.72% | +12 |
| U.K. | 3.52% | 3.79% | +27 |
| Canada | 3.10% | 3.32% | +22 |
| Switzerland | 0.61% | 0.77% | +16 |
| CB Policy Rate | 12/29/23 | 01/31/24 | January Chg |
| Fed funds target | 5.25/5.50% | 5.25/5.50% | 0 basis points |
| ECB refi rate | 4.50% | 4,50% | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 5.25% | 5.25% | 0 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | +1.75% | +1.75% | 0 |
| FX | 12/29/23 | 01/31/24 | Chg in Dollar |
| EUR/USD | 1.1040 | 1.0812 | +2.1% |
| USD/JPY | 141.03 | 146.95 | +4.2% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8412 | 0.8615 | +2.4% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2746 | 1.2681 | +0.5% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6815 | 0.6565 | +3.8% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6323 | 0.6115 | +3.4% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3250 | 1.3436 | +1.4% |
| USD/CNY | 7.0790 | 7.0996 | +0.3% |
| Equities | 12/29/23 | 01/31/24 | January Chg |
| S&P 500 | 4771 | 4846 | +1.6% |
| Nasdaq | 15011 | 15164 | +1.0% |
| Djia | 37690 | 38150 | +1.2% |
| Dax | 16752 | 16904 | +0.9% |
| Nikkei | 33464 | 36287 | +8.4% |
| Ftse | 7733 | 7631 | -1.3% |
| Canada TSE | 20950 | 21022 | +0.3% |
| Swiss SMI | 11138 | 11333 | +1.8% |
| Commodities | 12/29/23 | 01/31/24 | January Chg |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 71.65 | 75.85 | +5.9% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
2071.80
44172 |
2067.40
42548 |
-0.2%
-3.7% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2024. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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