Deeper Analysis
March 2024 and 1Q24 in Figures
March 31, 2024
The dollar, ten-year sovereign debt yields, and equities and commodity prices rose in the first quarter. The Swiss National Bank became the first major developed economy central bank to lower interest rates in this cycle, and the Bank of Japan became the last to abandon a negative short-term interest rate. The Fed pushed out the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: March 30 – April 5, 2024
March 29, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in India and Poland. Minutes from last ECB and Reserve Bank of Australia Board meetings to be published. Many Fed officials have planned public speaking opportunities. Holidays and Special Events: It’s the start of a new calendar quarter. Many markets will be closed for Easter Monday. Europe goes on daylight […] More
Uncategorized
A Fair Amount of Data Out But Most Markets Not Trading Because of Good Friday
March 29, 2024
The dollar has dipped so far today by 0.3% against the Mexican peso, 0.2% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and 0.1% relative to the euro, yen and sterling. The Swiss franc and Canadian dollar are unchanged. Gold at $2,238 per ounce is close to all-time highs. Share prices closed up 1.0% in China on […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Fed Showing Patience Amid Robust U.S. Economic Data
March 28, 2024
Governor Waller is the latest top Federal Reserve Governor to affirm the prudence to not cutting rates as soon as the FOMC had been signaling earlier this year. This patience in the face of robust U.S. economic data has not adversely affected investor sentiment the way such did not long ago. U.S. equities are so […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Thumbs Up for U.S. Economy but Thumbs Down for China’s
March 27, 2024
The U.S. stock market near noontime shows a gain so far this Wednesday of about half a percent, and the dollar is buoyant with gains of 0.4% against the Mexican peso, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, and 0.1% relative to the Chinese yuan and euro. It’s been a rare non-Monday with no U.S. data to […] More
Central Bank Watch
Sri Lankan Interest Rate Cut
March 26, 2024
An unexpected interest rate cut was undertaken by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, whose Standing Deposit Facility Rate was cut to 8.5% from 9.0%. The rate has been on a roller coaster ride since its pandemic low of 4.5% from July 2020 to August 2021. An initial hike took it to 5.0% for the […] More
Central Bank Watch
A Sixth Straight Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Hungary
March 26, 2024
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered at six straight monthly policy reviews, dropping by 225 basis points in the final quarter of 2023 and but 250 bps this quarter. The peak rate of 13.0% was maintained from September 2022 to October 2023. CPI inflation in Hungary peaked at 25.7% in January […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Equities Up and Dollar a Bit Down While Awaiting Several U.S. Data Releases
March 26, 2024
Today’s moves in the dollar and equities have been muted ahead of released figures for U.S. home prices, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and the Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are a touch softer. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated yesterday’s warning from his Vice Minister for International Affairs that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Japanese Finance Ministry Amps Up Threat of Yen Intervention Support
March 25, 2024
With the yen down 12.5% against the dollar so far this quarter and hovering not far from a its three-decade low, Japanese Vice Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda made a not-subtle threat of direct intervention purchases of the currency. The weakening of the yen is not in line with fundamentals and is clearly driven […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: March 23-29, 2024
March 22, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in South Africa, Sweden, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Azerbaijan, and Hungary. Atlanta Fed District President Bostic and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann speak publicly during the period. A summary of this past Tuesday’s Bank of Japan Board meeting and minutes from the previous meeting get published. […] More
