Deeper Analysis

Negative U.S.-Minus-Ezone Manufacturing PMI Spread Widened for Second Straight Month in July

August 2, 2021

The ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers survey for manufacturing dropped 1.1 points last month. Declines of 6.4 point in the price component, 2.2 points in production and 1.1 points in orders outweighed a 2.0-point increase in the employment sub-index. The IHS-compiled U.S. PMI rose slightly, in contrast, from 62.1 in June to 63.4 last month. Consequently, […] More

Dollar Now and Where It Might Be Heading

July 15, 2021

By historical standards, the dollar’s trading ranges over the last twelve months have been atypically confined. Similar 52-week high-low spreads against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc respectively have been 8.5%, 8.8%, and 8.2%. Not surprisingly given those widths, the dollar has moved within an 8.1% band against the DXY weighted index. Presently the dollar […] More

Manufacturing Spread that Favors Euroland Widened in June

July 1, 2021

The ISM U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index settled back to a 5-month low of 60.6 in June, whereas the IHS-compiled euro area PMI rose to another record high. The U.S.-minus-Ezone differential between those two indicators of -2.8¬† in June was the most advantageous to Euroland such has been since January 2016. If the dollar continues […] More

June 2021 and Second Quarter in Figures

June 30, 2021

The dollar was strongly bid against other currencies and gold during June but lost modest ground over the course of the whole second quarter. Although all the central banks highlighted in the feature did not change interest rates during the second quarter, Fed officials signaled that quantitative easing is likely to begin sooner that thought […] More

U.S. ISM PMI in Manufacturing and Euroland’s IHS PMI Compared

June 1, 2021

The ISM-compiled purchasing managers index rose half an index point to 61.2 in May, while the IHS-compiled euro area PMI edged 0.2 points higher to 63.1. The differential between the two compilations became 0.3 points less favorable toward Euroland. Each survey signifies¬† historically robust activity, and so does IHS’s U.S. index, which climbed 0.6 points […] More

May 2021 in Figures

May 31, 2021

Commodity prices and many commodity-sensitive currencies performed well during May. The weighted dollar index depreciated 1.2%, squandering all of its rise from the first four months of 2021, and dollar losses in May amounted to 1.5% or more against six of the eight currencies featured in the table below. Although central bank policy interest rates […] More

U.S. Jobs Report Delivers Biggest Forecasting Miss Ever

May 7, 2021

A net 266k non-farm jobs were added in April, more than 700k less than predicted. The 144.3 million level of employment remains nearly 50 million below the extended trendline of jobs growth occurring in the two decades between end-1979 and Y2K. Fed officials are right to believe that America is still far from what used […] More

Euroland’s Manufacturing PMI Moved Above the U.S. PMI Last Month

May 3, 2021

The IHS-compiled manufacturing purchasing managers index moved above the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI for the first time since January 2018. This crossing of the lines stemped from an unexpected 4.0-point decline in the U.S. index even as the euro area index rose 0.4 additional points to a record high. It should be noted, however, that […] More

April 2021 in Figures

April 30, 2021

The month of April experienced significant further appreciation of U.S. equities and the price of oil. The Canadian and British stock markets kept pace with America’s to a certain extent, but the Swiss and Japanese lost ground. The dollar fell against a broad spectrum of other currencies, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield premium relative […] More

March and First Quarter 2021 in Figures

April 1, 2021

None of central banks below changed policy interest rates during the first quarter, but 10-year sovereign debt yield recorded sharp advances. Favorable U.S. long-term interest rate differentials became even more so during March. In spite of rising long-term bond yields, equities experienced gain last quarter including in March. The U.S. and Canadian dollars strengthened last […] More

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