U.S. dollar outlook
A Long, Long View of the Dollar’s External Value: Low Now and In Danger of Weakening Further
September 15, 2025
Charts of the often-quoted DXY/USDX weighted index of the dollar provide a view going back to the birth of flexible dollar rates some 52 and a half years ago. The currency weights reflect trade flows with other major economies at an historic time rather than the current one. The index is dominated by the euro […] More
Can the U.S. Win a Currency War?
June 20, 2019
President Trump wants a weaker dollar to depress imports, strengthen U.S. exports and import-competing domestic goods, and wean America off its reliance on globalized supply lines. He believes the dollar is fundamentally overvalued, and there is some merit to that claim. The most recent semi-annual update of the Economist’s BIG MAC index done last January […] More
Ceteris Paribus
March 28, 2017
Forecasting the dollar has been infinitely complicated by all the crazy stuff going on in U.S. politics, other populist movements, and changing policies. In theory, current economic conditions and their projected trends ought to be front and center in this process, but that’s far easier said than done. To simplify things when constructing predictive models, […] More
Dollar Supported by Economic and Geopolitical Developments
December 17, 2014
Plunging Oil Prices: As Fed Chair Yellen opined today, oil prices have declined substantially in a short period of time, surprising the FOMC and most of the financial markets with the abruptness and severity of the the drop. There are numerous and mixed ways that such a change will affect the U.S. and other economies. […] More
