U.S. dollar outlook

Can the U.S. Win a Currency War?

June 20, 2019

President Trump wants a weaker dollar to depress imports, strengthen U.S. exports and import-competing domestic goods, and wean America off its reliance on globalized supply lines. He believes the dollar is fundamentally overvalued, and there is some merit to that claim. The most recent semi-annual update of the Economist’s BIG MAC index done last January […] More

Ceteris Paribus

March 28, 2017

Forecasting the dollar has been infinitely complicated by all the crazy stuff going on in U.S. politics, other populist movements, and changing policies. In theory, current economic conditions and their projected trends ought to be front and center in this process, but that’s far easier said than done. To simplify things when constructing predictive models, […] More

Dollar Supported by Economic and Geopolitical Developments

December 17, 2014

Plunging Oil Prices:   As Fed Chair Yellen opined today, oil prices have declined substantially in a short period of time, surprising the FOMC and most of the financial markets with the abruptness and severity of the the drop.  There are numerous and mixed ways that such a change will affect the U.S. and other economies.  […] More