FOMC Statement, Updated Forecasts and Press Conference
September 16, 2026
In line with a nearly universally held consensus, the federal funds target was raised by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%. This tightening was the first change of Kevin Warsh Fed chairmanship and the first rate increase since July 2023. The U.S. still has elevated inflation and solid economic activity that rests on a foundation of robust business investment and strong productivity. Employment is rising slowly but aligned with growth in the labor force. Today’s decision is meant to promote a “timelier” return of inflation to target, according to the brief FOMC written statement.
The revised Fed forecasts also released today are consistent with the rate hike decision. Inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditure price deflator was revised higher to 3.7% this year, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Not until 2029 does such drop to the target of 2.0%. The core PCE for 2028 was revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to an above-target 2.1%. Unemployment holds steady at 4.1% throughout the forecast period. GDP growth of 2.3% this year and 2.4% next year is a tad above forecasts made three months ago.
Finally, the consensus appropriate path of the fed funds target among FOMC members shows end-2026 and end-2027 levels that are 50 basis points above those indicated in the forecasts issued in June.
Chairman Warsh’s press conference, now reduced to 30 minutes from what traditionally had been much closer to an hour, did not convey meaningfully additional information, beyond what is said in today’s written FOMC document and in previous public events such as the Jackson Hole Symposium. In response to the questions, he initially restated them into a form consistent with his changed approach to communication including a strict avoidance of forward guidance. So what does this mean in practice?
Number one, FOMC officials are very united on the determination to restore price stability, defined as a 2% rate of rise in the personal consumption price deflator. This is to be done in a manner of sufficient speed to prevent second and third order fallout from supply side shocks. Put differently, chances must not be taken with squandering the public’s confidence that the Fed can and will return inflation all the way to its target. With the target exceeded for the past five years, the danger of this happening is greater than a year or two ago.
Number two, Warsh is willing to talk broadly about the Fed’s process. More than once, he stressed economic trends rather than specific data points. More than once, he declined to answer questions for his opinion on policies not mandated to be decided by the Federal Reserve such as the development of AI, fiscal decisions, the monetary decisions of other central banks, or foreign policy. Answers appeared selective and short by design.
Number three, Warsh is willing to reveal the evolution of al decision when made. The 9-3 decision at the July meeting agreed that the economy was strengthening, that inflation was too high, and that price risks were upwardly skewed whereas risks to growth seemed balanced. Common ground was found then in allowing a further seven weeks to gather more information to confirm or refute what was felt by many in July.. Since July, it has become clearer that the U.S. economy is strengthening, unacceptable inflation trends are not abating, and geopolitical pressures now present greater danger to price stability.
Number four, Warsh wishes to quell the influence of the Fed’s quarterly economic and projected interest rates. He freely explains that he is not submitted figures in that that exercise, but he does explain what the forecasts from other committee members are showing. The projections are a snap-shot in time but not commitments to future policy actions. At each meeting, the FOMC considers all relevant information and the gestalt of all perceived trends in real time guides what is required to best achieve the Federal Reserves remit from the congress.. Right now, growth is aligned with its target. Inflation is too high. Policy priority is a no-brainer.
Number five, Warsh has nothing to say about his conversations with the president or any discrepancy between the Fed’s monetary policy and what the Mr. Trump might say differently about what he wants the Fed to doing with interest rates. For Fed officials to opine about what the president is saying is a no-win situation that can only make its policy mission harder to achieve. It doesn’t take a fly on the wall after today’s interest rate hike to know that in effect the removal of some monetary accommodation is tantamount to a demonstration that Fed officials are committed to their task and doing whatever it takes to achieve price stability. If President Trump can’t or won’t steer foreign policy in such a way as to reverse this year’s commodity price shocks, then that failure will inevitably affect the necessary course of Fed policy.
| EUR/$ | $/JPY | 10Y, % | DJIA | Oil, $ | |
| 06/30/04 | 1.2173 | 109.44 | 4.63 | 10396 | 37.95 |
| 06/30/05 | 1.2090 | 110.89 | 3.96 | 10370 | 57.00 |
| 06/29/06 | 1.2527 | 116.07 | 5.20 | 11077 | 73.41 |
| 06/28/07 | 1.3452 | 123.17 | 5.10 | 13456 | 69.82 |
| 08/07/07 | 1.3749 | 118.55 | 4.73 | 13510 | 72.27 |
| 09/18/07 | 1.3888 | 115.75 | 4.51 | 13475 | 81.42 |
| 10/31/07 | 1.4458 | 115.28 | 4.42 | 13873 | 93.59 |
| 12/11/07 | 1.4682 | 111.49 | 4.11 | 13645 | 89.78 |
| 01/30/08 | 1.4792 | 107.31 | 3.70 | 12454 | 91.70 |
| 03/18/08 | 1.5786 | 98.73 | 3.41 | 12257 | 107.53 |
| 04/30/08 | 1.5562 | 104.58 | 3.83 | 12953 | 111.54 |
| 06/25/08 | 1.5568 | 108.37 | 4.18 | 11837 | 133.62 |
| 08/05/08 | 1.5445 | 108.42 | 3.97 | 11484 | 119.82 |
| 09/16/08 | 1.4144 | 105.16 | 3.36 | 10936 | 91.18 |
| 10/08/08 | 1.3625 | 99.87 | 3.50 | 9447 | 87.02 |
| 10/29/08 | 1.2933 | 97.15 | 3.81 | 9145 | 67.38 |
| 12/16/08 | 1.3790 | 90.14 | 2.52 | 8687 | 44.14 |
| 01/28/09 | 1.3253 | 90.01 | 2.61 | 8356 | 42.92 |
| 03/18/09 | 1.3115 | 98.13 | 2.94 | 7340 | 47.73 |
| 04/29/09 | 1.3331 | 97.06 | 3.02 | 8194 | 51.05 |
| 06/24/09 | 1.3984 | 95.43 | 3.59 | 8373 | 68.76 |
| 08/12/09 | 1.4221 | 96.17 | 3.71 | 9366 | 70.64 |
| 09/23/09 | 1.4779 | 91.50 | 3.50 | 9859 | 69.13 |
| 11/04/09 | 1.4884 | 90.75 | 3.51 | 9896 | 80.66 |
| 12/16/09 | 1.4542 | 89.78 | 3.56 | 10478 | 73.14 |
| 01/27/10 | 1.4045 | 89.49 | 3.61 | 10148 | 73.31 |
| 03/16/10 | 1.3756 | 90.64 | 3.67 | 10645 | 81.45 |
| 04/28/10 | 1.3157 | 94.10 | 3.75 | 11043 | 82.57 |
| 06/23/10 | 1.2284 | 90.12 | 3.13 | 10307 | 76.50 |
| 08/10/10 | 1.3107 | 85.85 | 2.81 | 10605 | 79.94 |
| 09/21/10 | 1.3132 | 85.21 | 2.66 | 10747 | 73.05 |
| 11/03/10 | 1.4059 | 81.35 | 2.53 | 11174 | 84.59 |
| 12/14/10 | 1.3423 | 83.37 | 3.38 | 11497 | 88.47 |
| 01/26/11 | 1.3658 | 82.55 | 3.41 | 12001 | 87.36 |
| 03/15/11 | 1.3969 | 81.04 | 3.29 | 11815 | 98.09 |
| 04/27/11 | 1.4665 | 82.63 | 3.36 | 12612 | 112.48 |
| 06/22/11 | 1.4392 | 80.12 | 2.97 | 12175 | 94.87 |
| 08/09/11 | 1.4234 | 77.09 | 2.36 | 10993 | 81.76 |
| 09/21/11 | 1.3778 | 76.34 | 1.93 | 11377 | 86.74 |
| 11/02/11 | 1.3724 | 78.11 | 2.03 | 11805 | 92.77 |
| 12/13/11 | 1.3067 | 77.92 | 1.98 | 12130 | 100.20 |
| 01/25/12 | 1.3027 | 77.96 | 1.97 | 12670 | 98.85 |
| 03/13/12 | 1.3096 | 82.76 | 2.08 | 13044 | 106.34 |
| 04/25/12 | 1.3226 | 81.37 | 1.97 | 13096 | 104.13 |
| 06/20/12 | 1.2693 | 79.28 | 1.66 | 12837 | 83.63 |
| 08/01/12 | 1.2300 | 78.10 | 1.49 | 13028 | 88.98 |
| 09/13/12 | 1.2895 | 77.43 | 1.72 | 13342 | 97.60 |
| 10/24/12 | 1.2948 | 79.75 | 1.77 | 13115 | 85.72 |
| 12/12/12 | 1.3082 | 83.24 | 1.70 | 13325 | 87.13 |
| 01/30/13 | 1.3584 | 91.16 | 2.02 | 13949 | 97.63 |
| 03/20/13 | 1.2948 | 95.65 | 1.94 | 14497 | 92.82 |
| 05/01/13 | 1.3195 | 97.48 | 1.62 | 14740 | 90.47 |
| 06/19/13 | 1.3364 | 95.76 | 2.23 | 15304 | 98.38 |
| 07/31/13 | 1.3301 | 97.92 | 2.67 | 15565 | 105.63 |
| 09/18/13 | 1.3363 | 98.28 | 2.76 | 15606 | 107.01 |
| 10/30/13 | 1.3764 | 98.18 | 2.48 | 15660 | 97.42 |
| 12/18/13 | 1.3696 | 103.81 | 2.89 | 16198 | 98.06 |
| 01/29/14 | 1.3651 | 102.13 | 2.73 | 15719 | 97.23 |
| 03/19/14 | 1.3918 | 101.75 | 2.71 | 16335 | 99.96 |
| 04/30/14 | 1.3868 | 102.11 | 2.66 | 16553 | 99.52 |
| 06/18/14 | 1.3584 | 101.93 | 2.61 | 16892 | 106.12 |
| 07/30/14 | 1.3372 | 102.84 | 2.51 | 16878 | 101.45 |
| 08/17/14 | 1.2961 | 107.60 | 2.57 | 17151 | 94.05 |
| 10/29/14 | 1.2677 | 108.40 | 2.33 | 16956 | 82.51 |
| 12/17/14 | 1.2409 | 117.58 | 2.11 | 17201 | 57.85 |
| 01/28/15 | 1.1337 | 117.77 | 1.78 | 17457 | 44.75 |
| 03/18/15 | 1.0637 | 120.98 | 2.05 | 17733 | 42.49 |
| 04/29/15 | 1.1164 | 118.67 | 2.05 | 18039 | 59.16 |
| 06/17/15 | 1.1255 | 124.22 | 2.39 | 17862 | 59.12 |
| 07/29/15 | 1.1073 | 123.61 | 2.29 | 17720 | 49.17 |
| 09/17/15
10/28/15 |
1.1334
1.1081 |
120.86
120.50 |
2.26
2.07 |
16778
17687 |
47.01
45.83 |
| 12/16/15
01/27/16 03/16/16 04/27/16 06/14/16 07/27/16 09/21/16 11/02/16 12/14/16 02/01/17 03/15/17 05/03/17 06/14/17 07/25/17 09/20/17 11/01/17 12/13/17 01/31/18 03/21/18 05/02/18 06/13/18 08/01/18 09/26/18 11/08/18 12/19/18 01/30/19 03/20/19 05/01/19 06/19/19 07/31/19 09/18/19 10/30/19 12/11/19 01/29/20 03/03/20 03/15/20 03/23/20 04/29/20 06/10/20 07/29/20 09/16/20 11/05/20 12/16/20 01/27/21 03/17/21 04/28/21 06/16/21 07/28/21 09/22/21 11/03/21 12/15/21 01/26/22 03/16/22 05/04/22 06/15/22 07/27/22 09/21/22 11/02/22 12/14/22 02/01/23 03/22/23 05/03/23 06/14/23 07/26/23 09/20/23 11/01/23 12/13/23 01/31/24 03/20/24 05/01/24 06/12/24 07/31/24 09/18/24 11/07/24 12/18/24 01/29/25 03/19/25 05/07/25 06/18/25 07/30/25 09/17/25 10/29/25 12/10/25 01/28/26 03/18/26 04/29/26 06/17/26 07/29/26 09/16/26 |
1.0956
1.0874 1.1089 1.1339 1.1205 1.0998 1.1160 1.1099 1.0641 1.0741 1.0638 1.0910 1.1149 1.1735 1.2010 1.1631 1.1815 1.2424 1.2271 1.1963 1.1788 1.1668 1.1765 1.1400 1.1420 1.1415 1.1355 1.1244 1.1217 1.1132 1.1066 1.1117 1.1112 1.1002 1.1179 1.1087 1.0697 1.0859 1.1367 1.1787 1.1824 1.1814 1.2174 1.2115 1.1908 1.2071 1.2126 1.1812 1.1722 1.1581 1.1255 1.1287 1.0983 1.0536 1.0438 1.0129 0.9884 0.9884 1.o686 1.0988 1.0792 1.1047 1.0860 1.1065 1.0672 1.0563 1.0875 1.0840 1.0855 1.0681 1.0830 1.0814 1.1126 1.0801 1.0487 1.0423 1.0864 1.1356 1.1515 1.1473 1.1864 1.1650 1.1658 1.1944 1.1517 1.1686 1.1558 1.1380 1.1534 |
121.72
118.48 113.70 111.37 106.15 105.65 100.84 103.33 115.37 113.52 114.48 112.47 111.55 111.17 111.34 113.91 112.58 109.31 106.27 109.91 110.38 111.69 112.94 113.88 112.26 109.55 111.42 111.17 108.36 108.59 108.16 108.89 108.62 109.14 107.21 108.33 111.26 106.73 107.24 104.84 105.00 103.68 103.65 104.07 109.27 108.80 109.97 110.09 109.23 114.01 113.98 114.36 118.62 130.10 133.82 137.31 144.08 146.93 134.86 128.93 132.57 135.22 139.38 140.82 148.06 150.87 142.93 146.58 151.60 157.68 155.93 150.89 141.97 152.94 153.77 155.05 145.92 143.03 144.64 148.89 154.63 152.24 156.40 153.59 159.42 160.29 160.41 163.67 155.10 |
2.29
2.02 1.99 1.89 1.62 1.53 1.70 1.78 2.45 2.49 2.57 2.30 2.13 2.29 2.24 2.35 2.34 2.73 2.89 2.97 2.96 2.99 3.08 3.23 2.81 2.72 2.57 2.48 2.08 2.02 1.75 1.80 1.80 1.61 1.01 1.01 0.81 0.61 0.77 0.59 0.67 0.77 0.91 1.01 1.66 1.62 1.49 1.25 1.31 1.56 1.45 1.78 2.19 2.98 3.34 2.77 3.56 4.03 3.51 3.41 3.54 3.37 3.79 3.89 4.35 4.79 4.02 3.97 4.28 4.66 4.27 4.11 3.68 4.34 4.36 4.55 4.32 4.26 4.35 4.35 4.04 4.01 4.16 4.25 4.26 4.40 4.46 4.64 4.95 |
17583
16002 17217 18013 17675 18461 18151 17989 19915 19890 20885 20920 21375 21711 22376 23405 24585 26259 24839 24095 25309 25310 26543 26195 23881 24841 25727 26624 26452 27210 27048 27067 27877 28833 25917 23185 18592 24667 27169 26467 28196 28418 30,125 30,554 32,868 33,908 34,251 34,938 34,279 35,894 35,493 34,594 33,726 33,242 30,806 31,846 30,850 32,524 34,175 34,093 32,466 33,689 34,108 35,418 34,553 33,226 37,090 38,380 39,144 37,888 38,772 40,995 41,634 43,703 43,606 44,789 41,660 41,665 42,454 44,474 45,463 47,838 47,742 49,005 46,225 48,862 51,493 51,955 52,113 |
35.95
30.85 37.79 44.89 48.29 41.91 43.44 45.18 51.83 53.33 48.43 47.96 44.71 48.75 50.55 54.24 56.60 64.41 65.00 67.57 66.77 67.62 71.68 60.93 47.80 54.51 59.48 63.38 53.65 58.48 58.16 54.60 58.68 53.52 47.18 31.73 23.36 15.30 39.05 41.22 40.00 38.84 47.77 52.81 64.30 63.70 72.32 74.25 71.94 81.14 70.39 87.40 95.70 107.71 116.24 97.36 83.70 88.57 77.56 76.80 70.32 68.70 69.38 78.93 90.28 82.86 69.77 75.92 81.70 80.52 78.79 77.74 70.65 72.76 71.00 72.75 67.38 58.24 73.82 70.40 64.50 60.56 58.22 62.82 98.98 107.90 75.91 85.12 102.53 |
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
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