Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

May 18, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Africa, Ukraine, South Korea and Hungary. FOMC minutes to be published. Powell, Harker, Evans, Dudley, Kaplan, Bostic and Kashkari of the Fed speak publicly. So will Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe. Holidays and Events: Whit Monday in Switzerland, France and Germany. Victoria Day on Monday in Canada. […] More

2018 Shaping Into a Better Year for the Dollar than 2017 Was

May 14, 2018

We are mid-way through the second quarter and at the three-eighths marker though 2018. The dollar, which ultimately dropped 12.3% against the euro in 2017 and at a similar point of last year had declined 4.1%, shows a scant 0.3% net uptick against Europe’s common currency this year. The dollar is also above its end-2017 […] More

Next Week

May 11, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings scheduled in Thailand, Mexico, Indonesia, Iceland, Poland, and Brazil. Publication of RBA minutes. Mester and Kashkari of the Federal Reserve to speak publicly as will DeBelle of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jordan of the Swiss National Bak and Schembri of the Bank of Canada. Holidays and Events: Norway’s Constitution […] More

Next Week

May 4, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in the U.K., New Zealand, The Philippines, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Serbia, and Peru. Publications of Bank of Japan Board summary and minutes. Bostic, Barkin, George, Quarles, Kaplan and Evans of the Federal Reserve, and Bank of England Governor Carney speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: Early May bank holiday in […] More

An Enigmatic Dollar

May 1, 2018

The book has now been written on the first third of 2018. The dollar had underperformed expectations in 2017, falling 12.3% against the euro, 8.7% versus sterling, 7.6% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar, 6.5% against the Canadian dollar, 6.3% versus the yuan, 4.3% against the Swiss franc, and 3.6% relative to the yen. Recent currency movement […] More

Next Week

April 27, 2018

Many Holiday Closures: Japan observes Showa Day on Monday, Constitution Day on Thursday and Greenery Day on Friday. China has Labor Day on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the markets observing May Day on Tuesday are France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea,Brazil, Italy, Mexico, Norway, Indonesia, India, Singapore, South Africa. Numerous Purchasing […] More

False Claims

April 16, 2018

The experience of 45 years since governments in the major economies adopted a system of market-determined flexible exchange rates has taught officials to treat currency policy as a delicate matter. The less that is said by officials about their own or other currencies, the better. Currency policy in the United States falls under the jurisdiction […] More

Next Week

April 13, 2018

Special Events: Semi-annual IMF/World Bank Meetings will be running throughout the week in Washington, DC. Highlights of the gathering will include publication of the World Economic Forum, a press conference on Thursday by IMF Managing Director Lagarde, and a Group of Twenty press conference on Friday. A meeting of EU finance ministers will occur on […] More

U.S. Current Account, GDP and the Dollar

April 9, 2018

The U.S. current account deficit has been in a manageable and safe range since 2012. As a percentage of nominal GDP, it ranged between 2.2% and 2.7% during the last three calendar years, including 2.4% in 2017, 2016, and 2013. The ratio had been higher in the first three years of the current economic upswing […] More

Next Week

April 6, 2018

Central Banks: Policy meetings in Poland, Ukraine, South Korea, Serbia, Peru and Mexico. Policy meeting minutes to be released by European Central Bank and the Federal Open Market Committee. Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, and Bank of England Governor Carney speak publicly. Scheduled U.S. Economic Statistical Releases: Consumer prices, […] More

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