Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Pandemic, Economy, and the Dollar

April 6, 2020

Currency market participants are in an unprecedented period whose evolution will be decided foremost by an external factor involving a shock to the system in which even the experts have no first-hand experience. Although medical scientists have considerable familiarity dealing with other coronaviruses, there hasn’t been a respiratory pandemic in the last 102 years to […] More

Next Week’s Menu: April 4 – 10, 2020

April 3, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Israel, Australia, Poland, Serbia and South Korea. Also know that during the Covid-19 crisis, central bank policies have been modified frequently after unscheduled meetings. FOMC minutes will be published, and so will the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey. Holidays and Other Notes of Interest: Mahavir Jayanti […] More

Next Week’s Menu: March 28 – April 3, 2020

March 27, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Singapore and Chile. Policy meetings scheduled originally for April 3rd in India and Romania were held in advance of that date. The RBI today announced a 75-basis point cut and several other easing measures, and the National Bank of Romania’s 50-bp cut on March 20 was accompanied […] More

A Very Robust Dollar with Continuing Upside Potential

March 23, 2020

The dollar has thrived during the global coronavirus pandemic. In the past two weeks the U.S. currency has advanced between 5% and 10% against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Turkish lira, Brazilian real, South Korean won and South African rand. It has climbed between 10% and 15% relative to the British […] More

Next Week’s Menu: March 21-27, 2020

March 20, 2020

Central Banks: There are scheduled monetary policy meetings in Mexico, Thailand, Great Britain, and the Czech Republic, but in the current environment, unscheduled emergency central bank meetings are likely to remain as prevalent as one’s that have been planned in advance. St. Louis Fed President Bullard, ECB President Lagarde, and Bank of England Governor Bailey […] More

Next Week’s Menu: March 14 – March 20, 2020

March 13, 2020

Central Banks: In spite of the Covid-19 pandemic, monetary policy meetings are being held next week in a slew of countries featuring the Fed and Bank of Japan and to be followed by press conferences by Powell and Kuroda. Policy boards also meet in China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Switzerland, Indonesia Iceland, Norway and […] More

Coronavirus Darkens Dollar Outlook

March 7, 2020

After simmering on low for two months, the Covid-19 outbreak slammed world financial markets to create back-to-back weekly volatility on a scale with few precedents over the past four decades. Stocks, long-term interest rates, commodity prices and foreign exchange were all sucked into the maelstrom. The DOW closed February 21st down just 0.4% over the […] More

Next Week’s Menu: March 7-14, 2020

March 6, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed by the European Central Bank and in Peru, Ukraine, and Serbia. Lagarde holds a press conference after the ECB meeting, and DeBelle of the Reserve Bank of Australia speaks publicly. Special Events: United States and Canada move to daylight savings time on March 8th. Democratic Party primaries on […] More

FOMC Delivers an Unscheduled Rate Cut

March 3, 2020

The Federal Open Market Committee made an emergency 50-basis point cut of the federal funds target to 1.0-1.25%. The announcement was flashed at 15:00 GMT (10:00 local time) and was decided by a 10-0 vote. A rate reduction at the March 18th meeting had been priced into the market, and a further move then remains […] More

Next Week’s Menu: February 29 – March 6, 2020

February 28, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Poland, Australia, Canada and Malaysia. The Fed Beige Book of U.S. regional conditions will be published, and Mester, Evans, Bullard and George are some of the Fed officials with public speaking engagements. Carney and Haldane of the Bank of England, Weidmann of the Bundesbank and ECB, and […] More