Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

March 16, 2018

Central Banks: A scheduled FOMC meeting dominates the coming week. Newly minted Chairman Powell will preside over his first post-meeting press conference, and a 25-basis point interest rate hike is widely expected. The Fed’s forecasts will be updated. Monetary policy meetings are also occurring in Russia, The U.K., Brazil, Chile, Colombia, New Zealand, Taiwan, The […] More

Circumstantial Evidence Suggests Trump Wants Dollar to Weaken

March 14, 2018

As private citizen, presidential candidate, and president of the United States, Donald Trump has embraced the usefulness of commercial protectionism, that is the imposition of tariffs and other barriers to benefit strategic industries deemed at risk because of unfair foreign competition. He’s unafraid of trade wars and believes that America would win such disputes. Victory […] More

Next Week

March 10, 2018

Special Events: Meeting of EU finance ministers on Thursday. U.S. moves clocks forward one hour tonight, which will temporarily reduce the time difference between N.Y. and London to four hours, N.Y. and Frankfurt to five hours, and N.Y. and Tokyo to 13 hours. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer releases the spring forecast statement on […] More

Next Week

March 4, 2018

Special Events: Italian parliamentary election on March 4th and announced details of U.S. tariffs. Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings scheduled in Australia, Japan, Canada, Euroland, Malaysia, Turkey, Peru, Serbia, Romania, and Poland. The Fed Beige Book of regional conditions will be published, and Dudley, Rosengren, Bostic, Kaplan, and Quarles will be speaking publicly. So will […] More

Known Unknowns

March 1, 2018

When you think about the number of meaningful changes with imprecise consequences, it’s no wonder that world financial markets are more volatile in 2018 and why investors remain very jittery. Four of the changes involve U.S. economic policies. The earliest to be undertaken was broad government deregulation including but not limited to the activities of […] More

Next Week

February 23, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Korea, Israel, Ukraine, and Hungary. Fed Chairman Powell’s initial semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony (Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee). Fed also publishes its Beige Book of regional economic conditions. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager February Surveys: China, U.S., Japan, U.K, Euroland, Germany, […] More

Next Week

February 16, 2018

Holidays: Lunar New Year Closures Monday in China, Hong Kong and Singapore. China remains shut on Tuesday and Wednesday. U.S. and Canada are also closed on Monday for Washington’s Birthday and Family Day, respectively. Central Banks: Following a slew of central bank policy reviews during the past two weeks, the coming week has very few […] More

Dollar and Relative Inflation

February 15, 2018

One theory of long-term exchange rate determination known as Purchasing Power Parity stipulates that currency movements have a tendency eventually to offset variations in relative inflation rates, such that the amount of currency A needed to purchase a bundle of trade-exposed goods in country A when converted into currency B will be just enough to […] More

Next Week

February 9, 2018

Holiday Closures: Japan Founders Day on Monday. Brazil observes Mardi Gras on Monday and Tuesday. Several Asian countries will be closed Thursday and/or Friday for the Lunar New Year that ushers in the year of the dog. These include China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore. Central Banks: Policy reviews at the Swedish Riksbank, […] More

Next Week

February 2, 2018

Central Banks: A considerable list of monetary policy meetings scheduled next week features the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of India, and Bank of Russia and also includes central banks in Iceland, Thailand, New Zealand, Romania, Serbia, Poland, Mexico and Peru. RBA Governor Lowe and BOE Governor Carney hold subsequent press […] More