Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
August 27, 2010
The last week of the summer currency market season begins with a British bank holiday on Monday and ends Friday with an early closure of the U.S. Treasury market for the Labor Day holiday. Since the Memorial Day start of this period, the dollar has declined 6.3% against the yen and 3.6% versus the euro. [...] More
Summer Ending, so What’s Next in Forex?
August 27, 2010
Currency markets have mostly been marking time in late August. Since my previous Insights essay written two weeks ago, the U.S. currency experienced scant net changes of +0.7% and +0.4% against sterling and the euro, while edging down 0.2% against the kiwi and 0.1% versus the Australian dollar. The Chinese yuan is unchanged on balance [...] More
Next Week
August 22, 2010
Central bank meetings in the coming week scheduled in Israel, Hungary, Poland, and the Philippines are not expected to result in any changes of interest rates. Thai monetary officials, however, probably will tighten further. Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers an important speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. In the euro area, preliminary purchasing [...] More
Administrative Notice
August 17, 2010
Currency Thoughts will be observing a lighter schedule over the next couple of days. Our apologies for any inconvenience. Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010. More
Next Week
August 13, 2010
Next week will be much quieter than the past one. No top tier and few overall central bank meetings are scheduled. Those in Turkey, Colombia and Mexico are expected to keep existing rate levels. Minutes from the Bank of England’s August meeting will be examined to see if Andrew Sentance cast a hawkish dissent for [...] More
Few Feeling Confident or Lucky on This Friday the Thirteenth
August 13, 2010
A mid-August Friday afternoon and Friday the thirteenth no less would be a precarious place for currency traders to sit in the best of circumstances, and these are certainly not that. Trouble lurks wherever one peers, and the market reaction is risk aversion. Start with the U.S. economy because that is where perceptions have been [...] More
Next Week
August 6, 2010
The FOMC and Bank of Japan hold interest rate policy meetings next week. So do the Norwegian, South Korean and Hong Kong monetary authorities. None of these are expected to modify key rates. The Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report will unveil new forecasts. BOJ minutes from the July meeting and the August ECB Bulletin [...] More
Third Anniversary
August 6, 2010
The world financial crisis began on August 8, 2007. The third anniversary finds a very heterogeneous world business cycle. Growth in global real GDP is again above 4.0%, something almost nobody foresaw a year ago. Many emerging economies in Latin America and Asia, a far wider spectrum than just India and China, are experiencing very [...] More
Next Week
July 30, 2010
Central bank interest rate meetings are scheduled in Australia, the euro area, the U.K., Peru, Romania Indonesia and the Czech Republic, but none is expected to announce a change of policy. Canada will be closed for Civic Day on Monday. The first week of the month is naturally PMI week. Monday will see a parade [...] More
Beware of August
July 30, 2010
The upcoming third anniversary of the financial crisis finds advanced economies deeper in debt, struggling to maintain traction, and without a consensus over policy priorities. Confusion also exists over the next direction of major currencies. The dollar lost value against most currencies during July in a pattern that persisted into the final days of the [...] More
