Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: January 18 – 24, 2020

January 17, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed in Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Norway, and at the European Central Bank. People’s Bank of China will decide its loan prime rate for the next month. Bank of Japan publishes minutes from its December meeting and a new quarterly Outlook for Economic Growth and Prices, and Bank of Canada […] More

Thoughts on How the Dollar Might Perform in 2020

January 13, 2020

Lessening Dollar Volatility: Closing quarterly quotes for the euro against the U.S. currency last year painted a tight shot group of $1.1217 in 1Q, $1.1373 at midyear, $1.0900 in the third quarter and $1.1219 at yearend. If one substitutes dollar/mark for EUR/USD for years prior to 1999, the 4.3% spread between the most disparate of […] More

Next Week’s Menu: January 11 – 17th

January 10, 2020

Central Banks: Turkey, South Africa and South Korea are holding scheduled monetary policy reviews. Bank of Japan Branch managers hold a quarterly meeting and will release a report on regional economic conditions. The Federal Reserve’s regional study known as the Beige Book gets published. Minutes from the last European Central Bank Governing Council meeting will […] More

Next Week’s Menu: January 4-10, 2020

January 4, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Poland, Romania, Israel, Peru and Serbia. ECB top economist Lane speaks publicly as do Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins of the Bank of Canada. Fed Vice Chair Clarida, St. Louis Fed President Bollard, and NY Fed President Williams also have public speaking engagements. Purchasing Manager Surveys to […] More

Next Week’s Menu: December 28, 2019 – January 3, 2020

December 28, 2019

Central Banks: South Korea has a monetary policy review, and FOMC minutes will be published. Kaplan, Barkin, Evans, Daly, and Brainard are some of the Fed officials with scheduled public remarks. New Year Holiday: This is the most widely observed holiday of the year. Just about every country observes a holiday on January 1, and […] More

Next Week’s Menu: December 20-27, 2019

December 20, 2019

The coming week is the last full one of the 20-teens. It’s hard to believe that the 21st century is almost one-fifth completed. Holidays: Many markets will be shut all day or earlier than normal on Tuesday, Wednesday, and/or Thursday for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Boxing Day. This sequence tends to squelch activity the […] More

Updating a Note Posted in December 2015 on Yearend Seasonality of the Dollar

December 16, 2019

In the early years after the United States adopted flexible dollar exchange rates in March 1973, the U.S. currency an astonishingly consistent pattern of depreciation against the mark during the second half of each December, dropping in thirteen out of fourteen years in one stretch. Like the euro now, the  mark was then Europe’s predominant […] More

Next Week’s Menu: December 14-20

December 14, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Japan, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Indonesia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Thailand, and Great Britain. Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting get published. Brainard, Evans, Williams, Rosengren and Kaplan of the Fed speak publicly, and so will Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. Holiday: South Africans observe the Day […] More

Next Week’s Menu: December 7-13

December 6, 2019

Central Banks: The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank head a crowded field of monetary policy reviews next week that also includes central banks in Brazil, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Peru, Serbia and the Philippines. The Fed’s Open Market Committee and ECB Governing Council will be updating their macroeconomic forecasts, and Fed Chairman Powell and […] More

Next Week’s Menu: November 23-29th

November 22, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in South Korea, Israel and Sri Lanka. Fed Beige Book of regional economic conditions to be published. ECB chief economist Lane and Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle speak publicly. Holidays: Japanese Labor Thanksgiving on Monday. U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday and an early close of the U.S. Treasury […] More