Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference
May 1, 2024
The FOMC statement includes two changes compared to the prior March 20th statement. An added sentence to the first paragraph reads, In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. This comment follows the repeated remark that “inflation has eased over the past years but remains […] More
FOMC Preview
May 1, 2024
The Fed is in a difficult bind, partly resulting from the shift toward making policymaking more transparent. Four enormous shocks over the past two decades have eroded general confidence in all institutions of authority including the Fed: the financial crisis of 2007-8, a technology revolution that has transformed how economic and other news get received, […] More
Rate Cuts by Central Banks in Azerbaijan and Colombia
May 1, 2024
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, where CPI inflation of 1.0% in March was at a 111-month low and down from 13.9% touched in December 2022, the refinancing rate has been sliced by another quarter percentage point to a 29-month low of 7.25%. This was the fifth reduction since a peak of 9.0% that prevailed from […] More
Armenian and Kyrgyzstani Central Bank Rate Cuts
April 30, 2024
The Central Bank of Armenia‘s refinancing rate recorded its eighth reduction, dropping 25 basis points to 8.25%. From a high of 10.75% from December 2022 until an initial rate cut last June, the rate has so far been lowered by 250 basis points. With sub-zero consumer price inflation since November versus a medium-term target of […] More
Rapid-Fire Interest Rate Cuts Continue in Hyperinflationary Argentina
April 25, 2024
The Central Bank of Argentina’s policy interest rate was at 126% when President Milei assumed office last December 10th, promising a draconian tightening of fiscal policy. The rate was lowered to 100% within three days, cut by 20 percentage points three months later, another 10 percentage points two weeks ago. Then today came word of […] More
Ukraine’s Central Bank Rate cut to 13.5% from 14.5%
April 25, 2024
The National Bank of Ukraine‘s policy interest rate was cut to 13.5% from 14.5%, having previously been reduced by 50 basis points in March and 10 percentage points in the second half of 2023. From June 2022 to July 2023, the rate had been held at 25.0%. A statement from the NBU explained that today’s […] More
A Seventh Straight Hungarian Central Bank Interest Rate Cut
April 23, 2024
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered 50 basis points to 7.75% in a continuing normalization of monetary policy. The latest and expected reduction brings the cumulative decreases to 300 basis points since end-2024 and 525 basis points since October. Consumer price inflation in Hungary has receded from as much as 25.7% […] More
Central Bank of Chile Cuts Rate
April 3, 2024
The Central Bank of Chile has reduced its policy interest rate by a further 75 basis points, matching analyst expectations. There has previously been cuts of 100 basis points in January and 300 bps in the second half of 2023 from a peak of 11.25% maintained from November 2022 until July 2023. By contrast during […] More
Sri Lankan Interest Rate Cut
March 26, 2024
An unexpected interest rate cut was undertaken by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, whose Standing Deposit Facility Rate was cut to 8.5% from 9.0%. The rate has been on a roller coaster ride since its pandemic low of 4.5% from July 2020 to August 2021. An initial hike took it to 5.0% for the […] More
A Sixth Straight Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Hungary
March 26, 2024
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered at six straight monthly policy reviews, dropping by 225 basis points in the final quarter of 2023 and but 250 bps this quarter. The peak rate of 13.0% was maintained from September 2022 to October 2023. CPI inflation in Hungary peaked at 25.7% in January […] More
