Deeper Analysis
U.S. Nonmanufacturing PMI Survey and Euroland Services PMI Survey Show Slower Rates of Expansion in March
April 5, 2018
The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped back 0.7 points to a 3-month low in March 0f 58.8, which was still very robust. Increases of 1.6 points in the employment sub-index and 0.5 points in prices mitigated declines of 5.3 points in orders and 2.2 points in sales. The IHS-compiled Euroland services PMI dropped […] More
Factory Sector Growth in the U.S. and Euroland Slowed Last Month
April 3, 2018
The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index in March printed at 59.3, 1.5 points lower than in February but still 0.2 points above January’s reading. Indices for incoming orders, production, and employment respectively fell by 2.3, 1.0, and 2.4 points, but the score for inflation jumped 3.9 points to a lofty 78.1. The IHS-compiled manufacturing […] More
March and First Quarter 2018 in Figures
March 31, 2018
March was a difficult month for equities, largely because of Fed tightening, U.S.-inspired geopolitical uncertainty, and trade war fears. Nevertheless, U.S. share price losses in the first quarter of 2018 were generally smaller than declines recorded in other countries. Despite higher short-term interest rates during March especially in the United States and Great Britain, year-to-date […] More
Is U.S. Growth Really Strengthening?
March 28, 2018
Although the first derivative of the U.S. economy’s size has been very consistently positive, the answer to the above question is more debatable. In the nearly nine years since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009, real GDP rose in 35 of 36 quarters through end-2017, and the exception was a mere 0.9% annualized on-quarter dip […] More
Bear Markets and U.S. Recessions
March 24, 2018
Since a peak of 26,614 on January 26, the Dow Jones Industrials fell 11.6% in two months and has thus quickly moved 58% of the way to being a bonafide bear market, with a peak to trough drop of 20% or more. The causes of this downward correction remain active depressants, leaving little reason to […] More
FOMC Preview
March 21, 2018
Although government offices in Washington have been closed today due to a winter storm, the FOMC is meeting and will release a statement and updated macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts at 18:00 GMT (14:00 EDT) followed 30 minutes later by an hour-long press conference, the first of Jay Powell’s stewardship as Chairman. A 25-basis point […] More
Level of U.S. Employment Still Under Historical Trendline
March 12, 2018
The growth of U.S. nonfarm payroll employment in the 1980s (i.e. between December 1979 and December 1989) was 1.841% per annum or virtually identical to the 1.837% per year pace in the ensuing 1990s. The similarity of those figures covering the final fifth of the twentieth century establishes a long-term trendline entering the current century. […] More
U.S. Minus Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Spread Swings into Positive Territory
March 1, 2018
The ISM-compiled manufacturing purchasing managers index exceeded the IHS-compiled Euroland PMI in February for the first time since September. Their differential was +2.2 points compared to -0.5 in January, -1.3 in December and -1.9 points in November. At respective February readings of 60.8 and 58.6, manufacturing in both economies is expanding robustly, but the faster growth […] More
February in Figures
February 28, 2018
February was unlike January. The dollar had declined across the board in the first month of 2018, but declined, except against the yen, during February. Likewise, share prices performed well in January but experienced a difficult February, including the biggest U.S. monthly drop in just over two years. Stocks were spooked by speculation that the […] More
2017 GDP Growth and CPI Inflation in the U.S., Euroland and Japan
February 20, 2018
Economic growth slowed last quarter from the summer’s pace in the United States, Euroland and Japan but, also in each case was stronger in calendar 2017 than in 2016. U.S. GDP rose 2.6% at an annualized pace between 3Q and 2Q, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter and reflecting a combined 1.8 percentage point […] More
