Deeper Analysis

U.S. Economy Strengthened Relative to Euroland’s in January

February 5, 2018

The ISM’s U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped 3.9 points to a 31-month high of 59.9 in January. Orders and jobs growth accelerated sharply. Production and inflation also picked up. The manufacturing PMI was also robust last month. The IHS estimate of Euroland’s services PMI rose 1.4 points to 58.0, which was at a 139-month […] More

U.S.-Minus-Euroland PMI Spread Narrowed in January

February 1, 2018

The differential between the ISM’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and the IHS-compiled PMI for the euro area had roughly doubled in December to -4.0 but then was cut by half to -2.0 last month. Both indices remained well above 50, indicating very strong rates of improvement, but each index was below December’s level. That […] More

January 2018 in Figures

January 31, 2018

The euro ranged from a low of $1.1914 to a high of $1.2583 in January, averaging $1.2195 in the month and closing 3.4% stronger than its end-2017 level. Against the yen, the dollar ranged between JPY 113.41 and JPY 108.28 during the month, with a mean value of JPY 110.92 and a 3.1% net drop […] More

Fed Beige Book Review

January 17, 2018

The Federal Reserve today released findings from its latest survey of regional economic conditions, known as the Beige Book.¬† It does this about two weeks prior to each of the eight scheduled FOMC meetings of the year. The latest report covers the period from roughly Thanksgiving to endyear. Economic growth was characterized a moderate in […] More

Manufacturing Activity Grew Last Month at a Faster Pace in the U.S. and Euro Area

January 3, 2018

The U.S.-minus-Euroland PMI spread narrowed to -0.9 percentage points in December from -1.9 percentage points in November. The ISM’s U.S. index rose to a 3-month high of 59.7% from 58.2%, and IHS’s Euroland¬†purchasing managers index climbed to a record high of 60.6% from 60.1%. The high export content of manufacturing makes such more sensitive to […] More

2017 and December in Figures

January 1, 2018

2017 was a stellar year for equity and commodity prices. The dollar declined broadly, consistent with President Trump’s intent to trim the U.S. trade deficit and despite three tightenings of Fed policy implemented in March, June and December. The ten-year Treasury yield rose less sharply than 3-month rates, which flattened the yield curve. The dollar […] More

An Improved U.S. Balance of Payments

December 19, 2017

The U.S. current account deficit in the third quarter of 2017 of $100.6 billion was 20% smaller than in the second quarter. The current account comprises net trade in goods (or merchandise) and services, plus net investment income and net transfer payments in and out of the country. The current account is an important measure, […] More

Euroland’s PMI Advantages Versus the U.S. Extended in November

December 5, 2017

Whereas the U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index fell 2.7 points to a 3-month low of 57.4 in November, Euroland’s service-sector PMI rose to a six-month high of 56.2. The resulting 1.2-point spread between the two data series was 3.9 points less U.S.-advantageous than in October and the narrowest differential since August. Adding this differential to […] More

Biggest Euro Area Advantage Over U.S. Since August 2016

December 1, 2017

The ISM¬†purchasing managers index for U.S. manufacturing settled back a further 0.5 points in November to 58.2 from 58.7 in October and a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. A reading of 58.2 still represents a robust rate of expansion and all the more so because sub-indices for production (up 2.9 points to 63.9) and […] More

November in Figures

November 30, 2017

The dollar fell mostly during November, constituting a change in direction from movements in October. Nonetheless, U.S. stocks recorded impressive gains just as they had the month before. Japanese share prices also climbed sharply in November, but many European stock markets declined. Investors became more confident that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates in […] More

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