Deeper Analysis
U.S. Manufacturing Advantage Grew Versus Euro Area During July
August 1, 2019
The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI in July slipped another half point of 51.2, which is a month short of a 3-year low. New business improved slightly, but the sub-indices fell for production, employment and prices. The slower improvement in U.S. manufacturing was outmatched by a faster deterioration in Euroland manufacturing. The IHS-compiled PMI for the […] More
July 2019 in Figures
July 31, 2019
Even though only the Fed among major central banks cut interest rates in July, long-term interest rates declined in Europe but changed hardly at all over the course of the month in the United States, Canada, or Japan. The Fed’s 25-basis point interest rate cut announced on the final day of the month was its […] More
Fed Beige Book Out of Regional U.S. Economic Conditions
July 17, 2019
The Beige Book, covering the period from mid-May to early July identifies modest growth, a positive economic outlook, stable-to-diminishing price pressure, but also “widespread concerns about the possible negative impact of trade-related uncertainty.” This publication, which is prepared prior to each of the eight scheduled policy reviews by the FOMC, offers no contradicting opinions to […] More
U.S. and Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices Each Fell Last Month
July 1, 2019
The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI slipped 0.4 points in June to a 32-month low of 51.7 despite more rapid expansion in production. A pronounced slowdown in demand and a drop in prices were the driving forces. Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI, meanwhile, edged just 0.1 point lower to a 3-month low of 47.6, marking the sixth consecutive […] More
June and the Second Quarter in Figures
June 28, 2019
Although the major central banks did not change their key short-term interest rates in the second quarter, global disinflation and decelerating economic growth depressed expected inflation and fanned speculation that monetary policies will be eased later in 2019. This in turn put downward pressure on long-term interest rates but incentivized share prices to climb. President […] More
Dollar-Supporting U.S. Balance of Payments
June 21, 2019
The seasonally adjusted U.S. current account deficit was $13.5 billion smaller in the first quarter than in the final quarter of 2018, and it narrowed 0.3 percentage points as a percent of GDP to 2.5%. That ratio, which this century crested at 6.3% in the final quarter of 2005, hasn’t averaged 3.0% or higher in […] More
Next Week
June 14, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings at the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and in Norway, Turkey, Thailand, Taiwan, Brazil, and the Philippines. The FOMC will release updated forecasts, and Chairman Powell will preside over a press conference. Governors Carney of the Bank of England and Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia […] More
More Bad News Regarding Manufacturing
June 3, 2019
The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell by a further 0.7 index points to a 31-month low in May. Sub-indices for production, supply delivery times, inventories and order backlogs dropped by 1.0, 2.6, 2.0 and 6.7 points. Juxtaposed against a 0.2-point decline in the IHS-compiled Euroland PMI index to 47.7, the […] More
May 2019 in Figures
June 1, 2019
The month of May exemplified the global interdependence national financial markets, and the unifying force was rising risk aversion. Whereas equities had climbed broadly in April, all the ones shown below dropped just about as sharply in May. Likewise, climbing 10-year sovereign debt yields in April were reversed last month, and except in the case […] More
Thursday-Friday Data from the U.S. and Canada
May 31, 2019
U.S. first-quarter real GDP growth was revised down a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1% at an annualized rate from the prior quarter. This was the third time in four quarters in which growth was 3.1% or stronger. Over the eleven quarters following mid-2015, real growth didn’t exceed 3.0% even once. On the other […] More
