Deeper Analysis

Narrower U.S. Non-Manufacturing Advantage Last Month Versus Euro Area

August 3, 2018

The July spread between the ISM non-manufacturing U.S. purchasing managers index and IHS’s service-sector PMI for the euro area was 2.4 points smaller than June’s differential. In combination with a 2.3-point contraction of their manufacturing PMI spread reported earlier this week, the sum of the two first differences was slightly more than halved to 4.5 points, […] More

U.S.-Minus-Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Narrowed Sharply Last Month

August 1, 2018

Mfg PMIs U.S. Euroland Spread EUR/USD Jan 2013 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.330 February 53.1 47.9 +5.2 1.334 March 51.5 46.8 +4.7 1.295 April 50.0 46.7 +3.3 1.301 May 50.0 48.3 +1.7 1.299 June 52.5 48.8 +3.7 1.319 July 54.9 50.3 +4.6 1.309 August 56.3 51.4 +4.9 1.331 September 56.0 51.1 +4.9 1.335 October 56.6 51.3 […] More

July in Figures

July 31, 2018

Net dollar movement against currencies in other well-developed economies was modest in July, but the U.S. currency extended gains against developing country monies. The rise in long-term U.S. interest rates pulled up other sovereign debt yields, blunting the impact on rate differentials. The Bank of Canada was the only central bank examined for this update […] More

U.S.-Minus-Ezone Non-manufacturing PMI Differential Narrowed Last Month

July 5, 2018

The ISM U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI minus IHS Euroland services PMI narrowed 0.9 points to 3.9 in June after having widened 2.7 points in May. Both economies experienced faster growth last month in these sectors. The U.S. index climbed 0.5 points to 59.1, but Euroland’s measure went up by a larger 1.4 points to 55.2. Manufacturing […] More

U.S. Advantage Versus Euroland Swelled Last Month in Manufacturing

July 2, 2018

A 5.3-point differential in June between the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and the IHS-compiled euro area manufacturing PMI represented the widest U.S. advantage in 43 months and was 2.1 points greater than the spread in May. The U.S. PMI score of 60.2 was at a 4-month high, while Euroland’s 55.4 reading constituted the slowest […] More

June and Second Quarter 2018 in Figures

June 29, 2018

The dominant market themes in June and 2Q were a sharp rise in the price of oil and a strengthening dollar, neither of which belongs in a recipe to accomplish President Trump’s quest to reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply if not to zero. Dollar appreciation was particularly pronounced against the Chinese yuan. The federal […] More

FOMC Preview

June 13, 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to enact its second 25-basis point increase in the federal funds target of 2018 and the seventh since December 2015. That will bring the target ceiling to 2.0% for the first time since a cut in October 2008 just four weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. […] More

Charlevoix G6 Summit Communique

June 10, 2018

Saturday’s statement from leaders of the Group of Seven had little to say about exchange rate policy and affirmed “the crucial role of a rules-based international trading system and continue to fight protectionism.” U.S. President Trump, who favors a Group of Eight including Russia as a more meaningful body than the Group of Seven, initially […] More

May PMI Results Point to Much Greater U.S. Advantage against Euro Area

June 5, 2018

The U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI, compiled by the Institute of Supply Management rose 1.8 to 58.6 in May, indicating a robust and considerably faster improvement in nonmanufacturing business conditions last month. The sales and prices indices increased by more than 2.0 points to pace the improvement. A U.S. services PMI, compiled by IHS Economics, was 2.2 […] More

Latest PMI Evidence on U.S. and Ezone Manufacturing Conditions

June 1, 2018

Even though the dollar posted its strongest monthly average in May since last November, the U.S. minus Euroland manufacturing purchasing managers indices swung 2.1 points further in favor of the United States. This created the most U.S.-advantageous differential since the end of 2014. The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. PMI rose 1.4 points to a […] More