Deeper Analysis

Bigger Spread in June Between U.S. and Euroland’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices

July 1, 2020

The ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers index (52.6) and the IHS-compiled Euroland PMI of 47.4 both rose to four-month highs in June. The U.S. index increased 9.5 points, 1.5 points more than did the Ezone PMI, and there was an additional significant attribute to the U.S. widening advantage last month. At 47.4, conditions in Euroland manufacturing […] More

June and Second Quarter 2020 in Figures

June 30, 2020

The second quarter will be best remembered for the strong advances of stock markets after the first quarter’s debacle. Share price strength continued into June. There were no central bank interest changes in the countries featured in this update during the quarter, and net changes in 10-year sovereign debt yields were very small in June. […] More

U.S. Economic Trends and Prospects

June 25, 2020

During the 21st century the United States has experienced faster economic growth than Japan and Euroland more times than not. The Great Recession was less pronounced, and the subsequent recovery emerged sooner and proceeded more vigorously in America. This year’s recession struck abruptly in the first quarter, but the 5.0% annualized contraction of U.S. GDP […] More

Investor Optimism Returning but Prudence Still Warranted

June 8, 2020

Wow what a year this has been for stock markets, and it’s not even half over! The Dow Jones Industrials plunged 38.4% between February 12 and March 23, and in a roughly equivalent span of days rebounded 50.8% to come within 7% of its record high. The drop mirrored the pandemic-induced sharpest recession in 90 […] More

U.S. and Euro Area Manufacturing PMIs Compared

June 1, 2020

The table below compares the U.S. ISM-compiled and Euroland’s IHS-compiled manufacturing purchasing manager surveys. In May 2020, the U.S. index recovered 1.6 points to 43.1, whereas Euroland’s PMI rose 6.0 points to 39.4. May’s readings represent two-month highs in each instance, and while the spread between the two readings narrowed by a sizable 4.4 points […] More

May 2020 in Review

May 30, 2020

With the central bank interest rates featured below already historically low, none as in April were lowered during May. Moreover the sharp declines of ten-year sovereign debt yields in April were partly reversed in several instances this past months. The talk of plans around the world to begin loosening stay-at-home restrictions lifted equity markets sharply, […] More

GDP Contractions and Covid-19 Deaths

May 24, 2020

Not even a half year has passed since the earliest reports of a new and lethal illness in Wuhan China. The Covid-19 pandemic has been the biggest global news story of 2020 and very possibly will be in the spotlight for a good deal longer. First-quarter real GDP growth estimates have recently been reported in […] More

First-Quarter GDP Growth

May 17, 2020

First-quarter national income accounts have now been reported for the United States, China, Euroland, Japan and Great Britain. In China, where the Covid-19 pandemic first surfaced, economic activity suffered more sharply than in the other four economies. Real GDP there plummeted 33.8% at an annualized rate compared to its 4Q19 level. That pummeling caused the […] More

Rapid U.S. and European Contractions Last Month in Factory Activity

May 4, 2020

Euroland’s IHS-compiled manufacturing purchasing managers index dropped 11.1 points in April to a the lowest level recorded in the history of this survey dating back to 1997. IHS also calculates a U.S. manufacturing PMI, and it dropped by 12.4 points to 36.1. But the more widely watched U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers survey conducted by the […] More

April 2020 in Figures

April 30, 2020

Imposed business shutdowns around the world in March had severely rattled financial market confidence, sending share prices sharply lower and the dollar significantly upward. The feared negative impact on economic data was visibly confirmed during April, but forward-looking investors found hope in the policy response of low interest rates and fiscal support. Although long-term interest […] More