Deeper Analysis
Contrasting Canadian and U.S. Labor Markets
March 12, 2010
It’s not just Europe and Asia which have experienced milder labor market recessions than the United States. So has America’s neighbor to the north. Between February 2009 and February 2010, the unemployment rate climbed 0.5 percentage points net in Canada to 8.2%, while U.S. joblessness increased 1.5 percentage points to 9.7%. 38% of Canada’s 417K loss of [...] More
U.S. and Canadian Trends in Trade
March 11, 2010
The $37.3 billion U.S. trade deficit in January interrupted a rising trend seen in recent months. The January gap was near to the average shortfall of $36.3 billion last quarter, worse than the mean monthly deficit last year of $31.6 billion but much narrower than the average 2008 gap of $58.0 billion per month. Merchandise [...] More
U.S., Japanese, Ezone, and British GDP Growth in 4Q09
March 11, 2010
With revised Japanese figures out today, a reasonably representative comparison of growth in the four main advanced economies last quarter can be made and are summarized below, where C is personal consumption, I is business investment, G is government expenditures, and X represents exports. The percentage changes conform to the U.S. custom of annualization, that [...] More
Expected Long-Term Economic Growth in Selected Advanced Economies
March 8, 2010
This is the time of year when forecasters first wheel out projections for the next calendar year. Since over nine months remain before the period begins and more than 21 months remain before it ends, the forecasts are good proxies for estimates of long-term trend growth. One sense of consensus forecasts is published each month [...] More
U.S. Minus Euro Area Services PMI Spread Swings Into Black
March 3, 2010
The relative positions of the U.S. and Euroland economies remained little changed in February as seen in the right-most column of the table below. Reported manufacturing PMIs on Monday revealed a sharply diminished U.S. advantage, in part reflecting the lagged effect of euro depreciation on competitiveness. Service-sector purchasing manager indices out today show an offsetting [...] More
Sterling’s Legacy of Crisis
March 2, 2010
Britain’s periodic fiscal problems,chronic large trade deficits, comparatively high inflation and the enormous offshore holdings of sterling have made that currency an object of speculative selling through the ages. Prior to the modern era of floating dollar exchange rates, the pound devalued sharply after Britain quit the gold standard in 1931 for a second time. After [...] More
February in Figures
March 1, 2010
The yen, commodities and most stocks rose during February. The dollar and long-dated bond yields were mixed, while European currencies depreciated. 10-Yr Yield 01/29/10 02/26/10 Chg vs End-Jan U.S. 3.58% 3.62% +4 Basis Points Germany 3.20% 3120% -10 Japan 1.32% 1.30% -2 U.K. 3.91% 4.03% +12 Canada 3.35% 3.39% +4 3-month euros U.S. 0.25% 0.25% 0 Basis Points Euroland 0.61% 0.60% -1 Japan 0.26% 0.25% -1 U.K. 0.62% 0.64% +2 Canada 0.44% 0.40% -4 Swiss 0.25% 0.25% 0 FX Pct Chg in US$ EUR/$ 1.3868 1.3626 +1.8% $/JPY 90.28 88.82 -1.6% $/CHF 1.0612 1.0736 +1.2% GBP/$ 1.5993 1.5248 +4.9% AUD/$ 0.8849 0.8953 -1.2% NZ$/$ 0.7014 0.6981 +0.5% $/CAD 1.0702 1.0525 -1.7% Equities Pct Change Nasdaq 2147 2238 +4.2% Djia 10067 10325 +2.6% Dax 5609 5598 -0.2% Nikkei 10198 10268 -0.7% Ftse 5189 5355 +3.2% Canada TSE 11094 11630 +4.8% Swiss SMI 6441 6711 +4.2% Commodities Pct Change Oil, $ per brl 72.89 79.66 +9.3% Gold, $ per oz 1080.85 1117.60 +3.4% Copyright Larry Greenberg 2010. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission. More
Smallest U.S. Minus Euroland PMI-Mf’g Spread in Twelve Months
March 1, 2010
Although good for building national pride, a strengthening dollar creates new challenges of U.S. exporters. A near-doubling of the U.S. versus euro area PMI differential in manufacturing in January had been surprising in light of the faltering euro, and alas turned out to be short-lived. More than the total of January’s improvement was reversed last [...] More
Euro: An Imbalanced Marriage
February 24, 2010
To join Europe’s common currency, nations are required to meet five economic stress tests to ensure suitability. The standards are rigorous but count only for a brief moment in time. A Stability and Growth Pact, separate from the Maastricht Treaty that established the common currency, was meant to ensure that countries do not stray far [...] More
A Couple of Falling Stars
February 23, 2010
A column in Tuesday’s Financial Times observes that some forty years in which the United States and Japan have held the top two slots in national GDP rankings will end sometime this year when China overtakes Japan. Although those Asian economies remain far apart on a per capita basis, Japan’s star has indeed fallen many [...] More
