Deeper Analysis
U.S. and Canadian Trade and Labor Market Trends
May 11, 2012
Canada’s labor market continues to outperform its southern neighbor’s. U.S. non-farm payroll employment climbed only 134.5K per month in March-April, roughly half the 271.5 monthly rate of increase in January-February. The U.S. April jobless and participation rates were 8.1% and 63.6%, and people working represented 58.4% of the country’s population. Average hourly earnings were 1.8% [...] More
The Illusion of U.S. Inflation
May 9, 2012
The battle cry for the past decade of the critics of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has been “inflation is coming, inflation is coming!!” Never mind that their warning lacks empirical support and includes serious contra-indications when compared with the historical trends of inflation compared to trends of growth in real GDP, jobs, and population, [...] More
U.S. and Euro Zone Service-Sector Activity
May 4, 2012
Service-sector activity slowed in the United States last month, but the rate of contraction in Euroland services quickened, leaving their relative positions to one another little change. The purchasing manager spread between the two indices favored the U.S. by 6.6 points. Adding that differential to the manufacturing PMI spread of 8.9 yields a sum of [...] More
Widest U.S. Minus Euroland Factory PMI Differential Since Before the Great Recession Seen in April
May 2, 2012
The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index increased by 1.4 points to a greater-than-expected 54.8 in April, which was also a 10-month peak. Euroland’s comparable index, in comparison, fell 1.8 points to 45.9, causing the spread between the two measures to widen by 3.2 points to 8.9 points. The spread increased 5.5 points in the two [...] More
April in Figures
April 30, 2012
Concern about the growth outlook in advanced economies revived in April, dragging share prices and both short- and long-term interest rates somewhat lower. Gold barely moved on balance, but oil prices closed higher for the month and stayed above the key $100 per barrel level. The yen strengthened 3.5% against the dollar, which slipped below [...] More
Canadian and U.S. GDP and Some Thoughts on Government Deficits
April 30, 2012
Canadian real GDP in the three months to February exceeded GDP in the previous three months by 2.0% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. For service-producing activities, GDP went up 2.1% annualized, while the growth rate for goods-producing industries, and its subset of industrial production, was 1.9%. The U.S. Commerce Department reported last Friday first-quarter [...] More
Comments on the Bernanke Press Conference
April 25, 2012
Several useful messages were delivered at the press conference. One of the biggest downside growth risks still facing the United States is the uncertain degree of fiscal drag that will be felt at the start of next year. If Congress legislates no changes in planned austerity from the spending and tax side, the Fed Chairman [...] More
G20 Weekend Statement Will Not Bring the Euro Debt Crisis to Closure
April 22, 2012
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Twenty meeting in Washington D.C. on Saturday released a statement that confirmed leaked reports of an accord to raise IMF resources “by over $430 billion in addition to the quota increase under the 2010 reform.” These augmented resources are to be available to all IMF [...] More
Growth Outlook
April 19, 2012
Upwardly revised IMF forecasts released on Tuesday exerted greater influence on investor risk aversion than many recent hard data releases that were more disappointing than forecast. Also, the modifications from previous forecasts released in January reversed only a fraction of the downward revisions embodied in those January estimates from ones made and released in September [...] More
Today’s North American Data Highlights
April 12, 2012
Although the U.S. $46.0 billion goods and services trade deficit in February was at a three month low, the deficit in January-February was still 6.1% wider than in the first two months of 2011. A deficit with China comprised 39.9% of the total January-February shortfall, and the remaining deficit was split more or less evenly [...] More
