Deeper Analysis

November 2020 in Figures

November 30, 2020

November was a momentous month both within financial markets and surrounding news. in the price of gold was only slight. Donald Trump became only the sixth incumbent president since 1900 to lose his bid for reelection. More rare, his political party picked up seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and stands a decent chance […] More

White House Transitions and Financial Market Volatility

November 13, 2020

This update examines how financial markets performed between America’s Election Day in early November and the ensuing presidential inauguration on the following January 20th. It considers only those times when the party affiliation of the president changed, which happened five times between 1980 and 2016. More times than not, these periods experienced market volatility of […] More

U.S. Minus Ezone Manufacturing PMI Differential Widened in October

November 2, 2020

October’s 4.5-point spread between the U.S. and Euroland manufacturing purchasing manager indices was 2.8 points wider than in September and the greatest differential since last April. Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI increased 1.1 points, while the ISM-compiled U.S. PMI jumped 3.9 points to a two-year high of 59.3. The monthly averages of the EUR/USD exchange rate in […] More

October 2020 in Figures

October 30, 2020

Compared to previous recent months, net dollar movements in October were limited, exceptions being a 1.9% rise against the Australian dollar and 1.5% slide versus the yuan. Ten-year sovereign debt yields favoring the dollar became even more advantageous, and share prices declined broadly and significantly. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped over […] More

Which Major Economy is Withstanding the Pandemic Best?

October 30, 2020

Although these are very early days for ranking economies according to their resilience against the Covid-19 pandemic, the recent release of third-quarter GDP data for a number of countries makes a preliminary stab at that question now possible. The United States, Neither the United States nor Euroland achieved a full-V pattern, but China, Hong Kong, […] More

Per Capita U.S. State GDP Rankings in 2018 Sorted by States That Supported Trump in 2016

October 15, 2020

President Trump has not disguised his contempt for states that supported his opponent, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 presidential election. He has again pretty much written off such blue state stalwarts like California, New York and Illinois this year. This note presents my findings from cross-checking state per capita GDP in the most recently available […] More

U.S.-Ezone Manufacturing PMI Differential Narrowed in September

October 1, 2020

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index settled back 0.6 points to a 2-month low of 55.4 in September. Sub-indices for production and orders showed a more pronounced slowdown, dropping 2.3 and 7.4 points under their August readings. The IHS-compiled euro area factory PMI, in contrast, increased 2.0 points to a 25-month […] More

September 2020 and Third Quarter in Figures

September 30, 2020

Third-quarter declines in the dollar were for the most part trimmed during the past month. Likewise, the dollar fell in the quarter but generally rose in September. There weren’t any central bank interest rate changes in the quarter in the countries examined here. Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell in September, while net changes between end-2Q […] More

2020 Recession Shared Widely

September 24, 2020

Two characteristics of the 2020 recession set it apart from all others in the last hundred years. It did not result from some kind of economic or financial market imbalance, and it constitutes the second extreme downturn in a row. Business cycle upswing do not end from old age. The expansion that began in mid-2009 […] More

U.S. Stock Market of Trump Compared to Earlier Presidencies

September 21, 2020

The favorable impression of the stock market performance during President Trump’s first term reflects in large part two factors: the very low unemployment level until just before the pandemic began and the appreciation of U.S. equity prices. The performance of the Dow Jones Industrials duringĀ  Donald Trump’s stewardship, however, has not been nearly as stellar […] More

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