Deeper Analysis

PMIs: Euroland Did Better than the United States Last Month

August 3, 2017

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index slumped 3.5 points to an 11-month low of 53.9 in July, depressed by declines of 5.4 points in new business, 4.9 points in business activity, and 2.2 points in employment. Euroland’s services PMI, by contrast, stayed unchanged with a reading of 55.4 in July, causing the differential between the […] More

U.S. and Ezone Factory Purchasing Manager Surveys in July 2017

August 1, 2017

The sharp relative improvement in U.S. manufacturing vis-a-vis Euroland seen in June was reversed partly a month later. The U.S. PMI fell 1.5 points to 56.3, while Euroland’s PMI declined by a lesser 0.8 points to 56.6. The euro continued to appreciate against the dollar in July, suggesting that the PMI will probably move back […] More

July in Figures

July 31, 2017

On the final day of July, the Dow hit a record high, and the dollar touched its weakest level against the euro since January 14, 2015 and softest yen value since mid-June. July was a difficult month for the U.S. presidency, even by Trump standards. Also, the future path of Fed policy became less certain, […] More

The U.S. Enjoyed a Bigger Growth Advantage in June than May

July 6, 2017

It was already reported earlier this week by the Institute of Supply Management that the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index leaped 2.9 points to a 32-month high of 57.8 in June. This eclipsed a 0.4-point rise in Euroland’s comparable PMI to 57.4. Now comes word that the non-manufacturing U.S. PMI increased 0.5 points to a […] More

Strong Factory Growth in Both the U.S. and Euroland

July 3, 2017

In June, U.S. manufacturing overcame a disadvantage relative the the euro area in a single month, as the euro advanced to its strongest monthly average in a year against the dollar. The U.S. Institute of Supply Management reported a 2.9-point increase in the manufacturing purchasing managers index to 57.8, signifying the strongest rate of improvement […] More

June and the Second Quarter in Figures

July 1, 2017

As in the previous quarter, a slide in the price of oil was a key development during the second quarter, and half of this move occurred in June. Gold also lost value both in June and the whole quarter. A second theme of the period was a shifting view about future monetary policies in the […] More

Comment on Revised U.S. GDP Figures

June 29, 2017

According to revised figures, real GDP expanded 1.4% at an annualized rate between the last quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. The initial estimate of 0.7% was revised a month ago to 1.2%. Personal consumption (up 1.1% annualized), non-residential business investment (10.4%) and residential construction (13.0%) collectively augmented real GDP growth by […] More

U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI and Ezone Services PMI Compared

June 5, 2017

The 0.6-point difference in May between the ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (56.9) and the euro zone services PMI compiled by IHS Markit (56.3) was 0.5 points smaller than in April. IHS Markit also measures a U.S. services PMI, and this rose by 0.5 points to 53.6. As was the case with the two economies’ […] More

Marginally Faster Manufacturing Activity in the U.S. and Euroland

June 1, 2017

In May, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index edged 0.1 point higher to 54.9, while Euroland’s PMI gained 0.3 points to 57.0. Both results imply robust expansion. Euroland’s advantage, represented by the difference between the U.S. and Ezone scores widened by 0.2 points to -2.1 points, which as seen in the column labeled “spread” below […] More

May in Figures

June 1, 2017

U.S. and European sovereign debt yields fell during May. Short-term European interest rates also fell in contrast to a rise of the 3-month U.S. deposit rate. In Japan, rates rose at the long end but fell in short maturities. Stock markets improved in all markets examined here except Canada’s. The dollar climbed against sterling and […] More