Deeper Analysis
February 5, 2019
Service sector growth slowed last month but remained positive in both the United States and the euro area. The ISM-compiled non-manufacturing PMI fell 1.3 points, while the IHS-compiled Ezone services PMI dropped by 1.0 point. The differential between those two data series narrowed slightly but remained significantly U.S.-advantageous at +6.6 points. The U.S. advantage in […] More
U.S. Manufacturing Edge Versus Euro Area Increased Last Month
February 1, 2019
The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 2.3 index points in January, while IHS-compiled counterpart fell 0.9 points. Consequently, the differential between these two data series, which had narrowed from 7.0 points in November to 2.9 index points in December, ballooned back to 6.1 points in January. This strong U.S. advantage exists in spite […] More
January 2019 in Figures
January 31, 2019
Equities rebounded sharply in January from their December slump, and the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) soared 18.2%. There were no central bank policy rate changes among the major economies surveyed in this monthly feature, but the Federal Reserve signaled a shift from rate normalization to one of patience with no more increases […] More
Powell’s Press Conference
January 30, 2019
Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference reinforced the significant change in monetary policy forward guidance contained in the formal statement released today by the Federal Open Market Committee. He declined to agree that the current hold on further near-term changes in the federal funds target is merely a “pause in a tightening cycle,” conceding instead that […] More
The Next U.S. Recession
January 22, 2019
I can’t recall any U.S. President, Treasury Secretary, or Fed Chairman predicting a recession prior to its onset. For that matter, financial advisers tend to avoid the R-word until its partly in the rear-view mirror, and conventional wisdom all around usually doesn’t identify a recession until it’s underway. Because of this phobia against shouting that […] More
U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI and Euroland’s Service-Sector PMI Fell in December But Not Below a 50 Reading
January 7, 2019
The ISM’s non-manufacturing U.S. purchasing managers index declined 3.1 points in December to a 5-month low of 57.6. This slowdown in positive growth was led by lessening production/sales, whose subindex retraced 5.3 points. The report also revealed slower employment conditions and less inflation intensity. The IHS service sector PMI fell by 2.2 points last month […] More
Growth in U.S. Manufacturing Slowed Sharply Last Month Both Absolutely and Relative to Euroland Counterpart
January 3, 2019
In contrast to November when the ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers index exceeded the IHS-compiled PMI for the euro area by the widest margin in four years, that differential in December narrowed by 4.8 index points in December to an 8-month low of 2.7 points. The U.S. index dropped 5.2 points to a 25-month low of […] More
December and 2017 in Figures
January 1, 2019
Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell last month, resulting in end-2017 to end-2018 declines in Germany, Switzerland, Canada and Japan but end of year to end of year increases in both the United States and Great Britain. The Fed tightened its fed funds target rate four times by a total of one full percentage point last […] More
Trump and the U.S. Stock Market
December 24, 2018
Earlier in his presidency, Donald Trump would frequently cite rising U.S. share prices as a vote of confidence in his leadership and economic policies. However, less than two years into his term, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have entered bear market territory, and the Dow Jones Industrials, with a 19.1% slide from peak, is knocking […] More
U.S. PMI Readings Improved Last Month Relative to Euroland’s
December 6, 2018
The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing PMI rebounded 0.4 points to a reading in November of 60.7. That still reflects rapidly improved conditions. Sub-indices for production, orders and prices climbed by 2.7, 1.0 and 2.6 points between October and last month, but the measure of employment declined 1.3 points. The IHS-compiled service sector purchasing managers index for […] More
