November 12, 2018
The optics went very poorly for U.S. President Trump at centennial WWI Armistice observances in Paris, where he had to scrap a cemetery visit, was left out of other shared activities, heard a sharp rebuke of nationalism by French President Macron, and endured a stream of troubling political developments happening back in Washington. Currency markets […] Read Article
November 9, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Mexico and The Philippines. Quarles, Powell, Kashkari and Evans of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: U.S. Veterans Day on Monday. Brazil observes Proclamation of the Republic Day on Thursday. President Trump visits Europe to attend the WWI centenary celebration of the […] Read Article
November 8, 2018
With no press conference planned, the Federal Open Market released a statement at 14:00 EST (15:00 GMT) that is very similar to the previous meeting’s one, when policy was tightened. As expected this time the fed funds target was left unchanged, but no doubt was left about more rate normalization as officials reiterated the clause “in […] Read Article
November 6, 2018
Service sector activity in the euro area and non-manufacturing activity in the United States continued to expand last month but at a somewhat less robust pace than in September. This development paralleled the trend told by manufacturing purchasing manager indices released earlier this month. The right-most column in the table below, which adds the two […] Read Article
November 9, 2018
Equities today lost 2.6% in Hong Kong, 2.0% in Australia, 1.7% in India, 1.4% in China, 1.2% in Taiwan, 1.3% in New Zealand, and 1.1% in Japan. Share prices in key European markets are down 1.3% in Italy, 1.0% in Spain and Britain, 0.9% in France, and 0.6% in Switzerland and Germany. Oil has fallen […] More
November 8, 2018
FOMC policy has become an epitome of predictability in rate-rising cycles. For decades, the Fed didn’t even announce policy changes, and it could take some time to discern that one had occurred by watching open market operations and determining behavior that couldn’t be explained by seasonal and other special factors. Policymakers have come to believe […] More
November 8, 2018
U.S. Attorney General Sessions is out and will be replaced by someone critical of the Mueller investigation. President Trump wasted little time adopting a very confrontational stance to the Democratic majority in the House. The FOMC is not expected to hike interest rates today. No press conference is scheduled, but expectations are widespread that there […] More
November 7, 2018
A 25 basis point increase of the Bank of Iceland’s 7-day term rate to 4.50% was the first tightening since November 2015. In between, the benchmark had been reduced by 50 basis points in August 2016 and 25 basis point each in May 2017, June 2017, and October 2017. Today’s rate reversal comes in response […] More
November 7, 2018
The dollar traded down overnight by 1.7% against the kiwi, 1.0% versus the Australian dollar, 0.7% relative to the euro and Swiss franc, 0.5% vis-a-vis the peso and sterling, 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% against the yuan. Share prices fell in Asia but have risen in Europe. Market losses totaled […] More
November 6, 2018
Market behavior today has been unremarkable, as investors around the world wait to see which vision of America has prevailed. The dollar has dipped 0.1-0.2% against the euro, Swiss franc, yuan, and Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand dollars. there’s been a 0.3% drop against the peso and sterling but a 0.1% uptick relative to the […] More
November 5, 2018
Chinese President Xi Jinping did not budge from his previous posture on trade, throwing cold water on U.S. President Trump’s pre-weekend comments that much progress had been made to defuse the trade war. In response, equity markets in the Pacific Rim slumped today by 1.8% in Hong Kong and Singapore, 1.6% in Japan, 0.9% in […] More
November 2, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled at the Federal Reserve and in Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Malaysia and Peru. BOJ Governor Kuroda and ECB Vice President Guindos speak publicly. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September Board meeting and a summary of its end-October meeting, plus the Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary […] More
November 2, 2018
The differential between the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and the IHS-compiled Euroland factory PMI narrowed last month to +5.7 from +6.6 in September and +6.7 in August. The dollar’s average value was about 1.5% stronger than its September mean, but concerns about U.S. trade protectionism resulted in Euroland’s weakest business confidence in the […] More
November 2, 2018
U.S. President Trump claimed trade talk progress after phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping and instructed his cabinet to frame a possible trade deal with China before the G20 summit November 30-December 01 in Buenas Aires. The timing of this development four days ahead of U.S. mid-term elections is conspicuous. Stock markets around the […] More
Currency Thoughts has evolved from a blog to a full-functioning website. This new design provides easier access to your favorite features and new capabilities to accept ads. In the future, it will be possible to register to accept emailed updates.
Posts