March 22, 2019
There’s been a big move into safe assets, reflecting three developments since Wednesday: The Fed’s decision was more dovish than expected, putting interest rate normalization on hold for all of 2019 and ending the balance sheet rundown after September. EU leaders put Britain on a short leash to decide on its Brexit plan. While March […] Read Article
March 22, 2019
Central Banks: Policy meetings in Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Many Fed officials have public speaking engagements including Harker, Rosengren, Clarida, Williams, Quarles, Evans, George and Bullard. ECB President Draghi, Vice President DeGuindos, and Executive Board members Praet and Mersch also will be speaking. So will Ellis and Kent […] Read Article
March 22, 2019
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation maintained a one-week repo rate of 7.75% after its latest monetary policy review. The key interest rate was increased a quarter of a percentage point twice last year in September and then in December, but a statement released today revised projected inflation this year downward by 0.3 percentage […] Read Article
March 1, 2019
The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index declined 2.4 index points to 54.2, a 27-month low. That was twice as large as the 1.2-point drop in the IHS-compiled euro area manufacturing PMI to a 68-month low of 49.3. As a result, the differential between the two data series narrowed by 1.2 points to 4.9, as […] Read Article
March 21, 2019
The Bank of England as expected did not change its 0.75% Bank Rate, which earlier had been raised twice by 25 basis points, initially in November 2017 and then in August 2018 to 0.75%, highest since March 2009. Nor were quantitative policy tools modified, and both decisions were made unanimously as expected. In a released […] More
March 21, 2019
At the latest quarterly review of Swiss monetary policy, SNB officials kept policy unchanged. Since January 2015, when the automatic cap on Swiss franc was lifted and the interest rate target was cut by 50 basis points, the 3-month Libor rate target band has been an all-negative range of minus 1.25% to minus 0.25%, the […] More
March 21, 2019
The Bank of Norway’s policy interest rate was lifted 25 basis points to 1.0%. Norway is an oil producer and exporter and benefits from the firmer trend lately in that commodity. Growth has been solid, according to a released statement. Capacity usage is running a bit above normal, and core CPI inflation is somewhat higher […] More
March 21, 2019
Since the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and press conference yesterday, there’s been a parade of other central bank policy meetings. Although only Norway changed its policy rate — a hike no less — the running theme in the many central bank statements is that the slowdown in global demand late last year is continuing and […] More
March 20, 2019
Today’s released FOMC statement asserts that the slowdown of growth in the final quarter of 2018 persisted in the early going of 2019. Headline inflation has declined, too, and market-based measures of inflation compensation “have remained low in recent months.” The final three paragraphs of the statement are identical to the one from January 30th. […] More
March 20, 2019
Over the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar and price of oil have strengthened. Share prices recovered additionally, but the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back 13 basis points. Forward guidance in the January 30th statement was less hawkish, deleting the previous assertion that further gradual increases in the target interest rate […] More
March 20, 2019
Today’s FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) will be accompanied by updated forecasts and followed at 14:30 by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Analysts look for scaled-back growth and inflation forecasts, fewer interest rate hikes this year than indicated earlier, and a stop in quantitative tightening. British Prime Minister May is asking for a 3-month […] More
March 19, 2019
The dollar stayed in neutral gear overnight, dipping 0.1% against the euro, sterling, and kiwi, holding flat relative to the yen, yuan and Swiss franc, and nudging up 0.1% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar. Slightly bigger dollar dips occurred of 0.4% relative to the loonie and 0.2% versus the Mexican peso. Asian stock markets likewise didn’t […] More
March 18, 2019
As the last business week ended on Friday, investors learned of a terrorist shooting by a neo-nazi at a mosque in New Zealand that killed 50 people, and today brings news of another shooting some 11,670 miles away on a tram in The Netherlands that is also believed to be the work of a terrorist. […] More
March 15, 2019
Central Banks: In the week of March 18-22, monetary policy reviews are scheduled in the United States, U.K., Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines. Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of England Governor Carney, SNB President Jordan, and Kent and Bullock of the Reserve Bank of Australia speak publicly. Minutes from […] More
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