New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Stock Markets Looking Vulnerable

September 25, 2020

This has been a difficult week for risk-laden assets but a good one for the dollar because of its safe-haven appeal. In turn, that property of the U.S. currency is ironic, given mounting uneasiness that President Trump may not accede to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the election. Stock markets are lacking […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: September 26 – October 2

September 25, 2020

The coming week that bridges the third and final quarters of 2020 will be very crowded with special events, data releases, and holidays. Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in India and The Philippines. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly corporate Tankan survey will be published, and so will a summary of this month’s BOJ […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Seventh Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Cut of 2020

September 24, 2020

The five-member Bank of Mexico Governing Board decided unanimously to cut its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4.5%. This was the seventh reduction reduction so far this year but only half the the incremental change in the the previous five adjustments but matches the size of the initial cut in February. Although Mexican GDP […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

2020 Recession Shared Widely

September 24, 2020

Two characteristics of the 2020 recession set it apart from all others in the last hundred years. It did not result from some kind of economic or financial market imbalance, and it constitutes the second extreme downturn in a row. Business cycle upswing do not end from old age. The expansion that began in mid-2009 […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Two Percentage Point Interest Rate Hike in Turkey

September 24, 2020

Officials at the Central Bank of Turkey made the biggest splash, hiking the one-week repo rate by two full percentage points to 10.25%, which reverses over half of the 375 basis points of reduction engineered earlier this year between January and May. This directional reversal was ostensibly done in light of this quarter’s “markedly” recovering […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Nine-Week High in Trade-Weighted Dollar Despite Adverse U.S. News

September 24, 2020

The dollar rose overnight to a nine-week trade-weighted high of 94.55. The U.S. currency touched a three-month high of NOK 9.5974 against the Norwegian krone, two-month highs of 1.1633 per euro and CHF 0.9269, and 1-month highs of $0.6516 against the New Zealand dollar and ZAR 17.2230 versus the South African rand. Gold, which tends […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Firmer Tone Wednesday in Equities and the Dollar

September 23, 2020

European share prices so far today show gains of 2.1% in the U.K., 1.6% in Spain, 1.5% in France, 1.4% in Germany and 1.1% in Italy. Equities also rebounded 2.4% in Australia, 1.1% in New Zealand, and 0.7% in Singapore but dipped 0.1% in Japan whose market was closed Monday and Tuesday for holidays. U.S. […] More

Central Bank Watch

Swedish 7-Day Repo Rate Held at 0.00%

September 22, 2020

A statement released by the Swedish Riksbank after officials voted to leave the 7-day repo rate unchanged at zero percent proclaimed, “The Swedish economy has now begun to recover after having fallen sharply in the spring. But the way back is long and fraught with uncertainty. To provide support to economic developments and help inflation […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Rising Covid Cases, Growth Outlook Concerns, Supreme Court Nomination Fight, and U.S.-China Tensions

September 22, 2020

The pace of new Covid-19 cases has risen in many countries. A U.S. increase above 40k in the past 24 hours is well above a safe level heading into the flu season. Fed Chairman Powell said America has a long way to go in its economic recovery from spring lockdowns and that a full comeback […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. Stock Market of Trump Compared to Earlier Presidencies

September 21, 2020

The favorable impression of the stock market performance during President Trump’s first term reflects in large part two factors: the very low unemployment level until just before the pandemic began and the appreciation of U.S. equity prices. The performance of the Dow Jones Industrials duringĀ  Donald Trump’s stewardship, however, has not been nearly as stellar […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Broad Decline in Equities and Strengthening Moves in the Yen and Dollar

September 21, 2020

Japanese markets were closed today for Respect for the Aged Day and will remain so Tuesday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday. Elsewhere in the Pacific Rim, stock markets have dropped 2.3% in India, 2.1% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in Indonesia, and 0.7% in Australia and New Zealand. Selling intensified in Europe, where equities so far […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: September 19-25, 2020

September 18, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed in Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, China, Thailand, New Zealand, Hungary, Turkey, Mexico, Colombia, and the Czech Republic. BOJ minutes will be published. Cleveland Fed President Mester, Deputy Governor DeBelle of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of England Governor Bailey speak publicly. Holidays and Events: Japan’s Respect for […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Mixed Signals this Friday

September 18, 2020

China’s Shanghai Composite equity index jumped 2.1%, but share prices fell 1.4% in New Zealand and 0.3% in Australia and India. Japan’s Nikkei rose only 0.2%, and Spanish stocks have so far dropped 1.2% on the day. The dollar climbed to another record high against the Turkish lira and shows a year-to-date advance of more […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Equities Fall Even as Central Banks Commit to Maintaining Low Interest Rates

September 17, 2020

Share prices in Asia closed down 1.6% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in South Korea, 0.8% in Taiwan and India, 0.7% in Japan and 0.4% in China and Indonesia. Equities in Europe so far today have dropped 1.2% in Italy, 0.9% in France, 0.8% in Germany and Spain, and 0.5% in the U.K.. The dollar recovered […] More

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