December 11, 2013
The first reduction of quantitative easing appears more likely because Democrat and Republican congressional leaders reached a 2-year tentative budget deal that President Obama is said to support. The legislation still must get approved by the full senate and house of representatives and, if so done, would avert a government shutdown next month. The risk […] Read Article
December 6, 2013
Central bank interest rate policy meetings will be held next week in Switzerland, South Korea, New Zealand, Indonesia, Iceland, the Philippines and Chile. The monthly ECB Bulletin gets published. Bank of England Governor Carney, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz, and Lacker, Bullard and Fisher of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. So does U.S. Treasury Secretary […] Read Article
December 11, 2013
New Zealand’s official cash rate has been at 2.5% since a 50-basis point cut in March 2011 reversed hikes of 25-bp each in June and July of 2010 and returned such to its cyclical low. A statement from Governor Wheeler projects upwardly trending inflation from 1.4% in the year to 3Q13 and retains a policy bias […] Read Article
December 11, 2013
Ben Bernanke’s eight-year stint as chairman of the Federal Reserve ends six weeks from today. His immediate predecessors were Alan Greenspan for 18 years and 5 months from August 1987 through January 2006 and Paul Volcker for eight years between August 1979 and August 1987. The infamous inflation buildup had deep roots going back to […] Read Article
December 11, 2013
Analysts didn’t get the 25-basis point central bank rate hike that they were anticipating, but the accompanying statement from Iceland’s Monetary Policy Committee underscored that today’s delayed action is only a delay and not a policy guidance rethink. The statement observes faster growth than assumed previously — such averaged 3.1% annualized in January-September — and […] More
December 10, 2013
Much of the U.S. is blanketed with the white stuff, including the Northeast which is experiencing wintry weather for a second straight day. The dollar fell overnight by 0.3% against the yen, 0.2% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars and 0.1% relative to the euro, Swiss franc, loonie and sterling. The Chinese yuan was […] More
December 9, 2013
The repo and reverse repo rates were left unchanged this month, matching the decision made at November’s meeting, and the current stance was deemed “appropriate” in a released statement from monetary officials. The statement lists several successful developments — faster growth last quarter, slower inflation last month, more favorable balance of payments trends, and a […] More
December 9, 2013
Share prices in India rallied 1.6% on the opposition’s victory in state elections over the weekend. In other Asia markets, stocks climbed 2.3% in Japan, 1.0% in South Korea, 0.9% in Taiwan and 0.8% in Malaysia and Indonesia. Equities fell 0.8% in Australia and dipped 0.1% in China and the Philippines. The Spanish IBEX and […] More
December 6, 2013
After overnight lending rate cuts this year of 50 basis points in March 25 bps in September and, most recently, 25 bps to 3.0% on October 25, Bank of Mexico policymakers seem satisfied with the status quo and likely to remain so for another year of more. That’s the implication of the latest interest rate […] More
December 6, 2013
The data were better than forecast. The 203K rise in non-farm payroll jobs last month beat the market consensus by 30K and was consistent with an average increase over the past four reported months of 204K. Such a pace translates into a 1.81% annualized rate. That trend is virtually in line with annualized employment growth […] More
December 6, 2013
Investors await U.S. and Canadian jobs figures. Analysts project a 185K increase in U.S. employment. A gain of 200K or more would goose speculation about earlier Fed tapering. Ahead of this key release, traditionally scheduled for the first Friday of the month, the dollar is unchanged against the euro and Aussie dollar, up by 0.3% […] More
December 5, 2013
Yen weakness and euro resilience have coexisted for the past sixteen months. From a low of 94.075 yen per euro in late July 2012 to a high this week of 140.025, the euro soared 49% against the Japanese currency, rounding slightly up to the nearest whole number. With hindsight, the trigger for the turning point […] More
December 5, 2013
New staff maroeconomic forecasts were released by the European Central Bank today following the final monetary policy meeting of 2013. The mid-point of projected high-low ranges for GDP and CPI inflation are shown in the top row of the table below and compared to earlier forecasts issued at quarterly intervals. Notably, sub-target inflation is foreseen […] More
December 5, 2013
The statement released by monetary officials in Britain followed the standard non-explanative format whenever policy is left unchanged. Investors and the public are instructed to stay tuned for details of the latest thinking that will be covered in published minutes due December 18. The statement also notes that today’s decision conformed to guidance adopted last […] More
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