New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Less Volatility Than Earlier in the Week

March 27, 2015

The dollar rose overnight by 0.5% versus the euro, 0.4% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.3% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie and 0.1% against the yuan and yen but slipped 0.2 against sterling. Concern has subsided about the impact on oil prices from the air strike on Yemen.  West […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

March 27, 2015

Central Bank Scene:  National Bank of Romania interest rate policy meeting.  Fisher, Kocherlakota, Lockhart, Lacker and Williams of the Fed speak publicly. Holiday:  Good Friday on April 3rd affects most of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and parts of the United States.  Japan’s fiscal year ends on Wednesday. Clocks Changed:  European countries moving clocks forward […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Mexico

March 26, 2015

Monetary easing in Mexico since 2009 has happened in two waves.  In each of the first seven months of that year, there was a rate cut, the total of which added up to 375 basis points, cutting the main interest rate to 4.5% from 8.25%.  The second wave of easing began with a 50-basis point […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

FOMC Statement and Press Conference

March 18, 2015

Within the two hours after today’s FOMC statement was released and 30 minutes from the end of Janet Yellen’s press conference, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.8%, the dollar fell by 1.8% against the euro and 0.6% versus the yen, and the 10-year Treasury yield swung from five basis points above the 2.00% threshold […] Read Article

Larry's Blog

U.S. Economic Growth Over the Past Ten Years

March 27, 2015

While faster than growth in Japan and the eurozone, U.S. growth during the past decade was considerably slower than in the prior ten-year intervals.  Nine consecutive calendar years have now passed without any showing average real GDP growth of as much as 3.0%.  The averages in the most recent three years — 2.3% in 2012, […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Reserve Bank Keeps Policy Stance Paused

March 26, 2015

It doesn’t happen often that a central bank raises projected and above-target inflation for the coming two years yet leaves its policy interest rate unchanged.  Yet that is what the South African Reserve Bank just did.  Inflation is forecast at 4.8% in 2015 (a whole percentage point higher than the previous estimate) and an average […] More

Central Bank Watch

Dovish Czech Monetary Policy Statement

March 26, 2015

the latest policy meeting ended with Czech monetary officials retaining a technical zero interest rate policy attested by the 0.05% two-week repo rate, as well as an asymmetric currency policy to prevent koruna appreciation beyond 27 per euro with automatic unlimited intervention.  A very dovish statement commits to maintaining the currency cap throughout the forecast […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Retains 4.0% Overnight Borrowing Rate

March 26, 2015

The Filipino Monetary Policy Board engineered its first interest rate hike since May 2011 in July 2014 and followed up that move with a second 25-basis point increase to 4.0% in September 2014.  Those increases reversed half the easing done in 2012.  No changes were done in 2013.  A statement released today after the latest […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of the Republic of China Keeps Policy Unchanged after Quarterly Review

March 26, 2015

From a multi-decade low of 1.25%, monetary authorities raised the central bank discount rate at five consecutive meetings — starting in June 2010, ending in June 2011 and moving the rate each time by 12.5 basis points.  Since the June 2011 tightening, policy has been unchanged. That will continue in the second quarter of 2015.  […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Abundance of Data, Some Central Bank Decisions, and a Saudi-Led Air Attack on Islamic Rebels in Yemen

March 26, 2015

In quickening activity, the dollar lost 0.8% overnight against the Swissie, 0.6% relative to the yen and loonie, 0.5% vis-a-vis the kiwi, 0.4% versus sterling, 0.3% against the euro, and 0.2% versus the Australian dollar.  The yuan slipped 0.1%. After Wednesday’s North American sell-off, stocks in the Pacific Rim and Europe are significantly lower.  Stocks […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Change is Gonna Come

March 25, 2015

World financial markets have lately been characterized by oscillating share prices, historically low long-term interest rates, a near record pace of dollar appreciation, and unthinkably cheap oil costs.  Forward-looking investors are trying to discern how these distinct themes will interact, which of the properties are most sustainable, and which seem less assured to continue because […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

German IFO Figures Better Than Expected inn Otherwise Uneventful Overnight Session

March 25, 2015

The dollar moved 0.4% lower against the euro overnight and also lost 0.2% versus sterling and 0.1% relative to the yen, kiwi, Aussie dollar and Swiss franc.  The U.S. currency is unchanged against the loonie and has recouped 0.1% vis-a-vis the yuan. Stocks in the Pacific Rim fell 0.8% in Indonesia and China, 0.7% in […] More

Central Bank Watch

Hungarian Monetary Policy Eased

March 24, 2015

Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s Base Rate was cut by 15 basis points to 1.95%.  This was the first reduction in eight months, and officials left the door open for the possibility of even more reductions ahead despite a baseline scenario calling for robust growth, a gradually diminishing output gap, and consumer  price inflation convergence upon an […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Weaker Pound and Dollar

March 24, 2015

The dollar advanced 0.4% relative to sterling but is otherwise down by 0.8% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the yen and loonie, 0.2% vis-a-vis the euro and Australian dollar and 0.1% against the kiwi and yuan. Preliminary purchasing manager surveys for March, based upon roughly 85% of the information in the final tallies, were […] More

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