October 22, 2019
Japanese markets were closed Tuesday for the enthronement of Naruhito as emperor. British Prime Minister Johnson failed to secure permission Monday for a Brexit vote. In this continuing cliff hanger, he hopes to hold two votes today, one to show sufficient support for the deal he struck with the EU and a second to determine […] Read Article
October 18, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Euroland, China, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, Hungary and Chile. The ECB Governing Council meeting will be the last chaired by Draghi. Kent of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Handane of the Bank of England also speak publicly. The Bank of Canada publishes its business outlook survey. […] Read Article
October 16, 2019
The Bank of Korea enacted its second 25-basis point repo rate cut since July and released a statement that suggests more ease may be done. But with two of seven policymakers dissenting in favor of not cutting the main interest rate today, the timing and certainty of a third move has been thrown into some […] Read Article
October 1, 2019
The manufacturing sector is very sensitive to the strength of export demand. Consequently, the trends of the U.S. and euro area manufacturing purchasing manager indices provides good empirical evidence to test President Trump’s oft-repeated assertion that the United States will win a trade war and incur minimal collateral damage along the way. Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI […] Read Article
October 21, 2019
Saturday’s planned Brexit vote in the House of Commons didn’t happen. Instead, MPs requested that Prime Minister Johnson get another deadline extension from the EU. Boris Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the EU that only complained that an extension would be toxic and now seeks to force a Brexit vote today. No response yet […] More
October 18, 2019
A debate and vote on British Prime Minister Johnson’s deal with the EU is scheduled Saturday. He needs 318 yes votes for approval, and the outcome figures to be very close to that threshold. Johnson needs only a simple majority win. In a more perfectly designed political system of self-governance, a decision with such profound […] More
October 17, 2019
Several big stories hit the wires this morning. First, Congressman Elijah Cummings of Maryland, Chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee and a leading figure in the investigation of President Trump, has died at age 68. He’d had several health problems, but exact details of cause of death were not provided. Second, British Prime […] More
October 16, 2019
Investor confidence regarding the main geopolitical risks of Brexit and U.S.-Sino trade continue to flip-flop seemingly on a daily basis, often without any concrete new actions. Still no deal on Brexit has been announced with the main sticking point being the handling of Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland, and time is getting exceedingly short. Trade […] More
October 15, 2019
Many forecasters had expected a downward break in the dollar this year. It didn’t happen, and only a fifth of the year remains. Compared to a year ago, the dollar shows a double-digit decline against the euro and rises of about 3% relative to sterling and the Chinese yuan versus a dip of less than […] More
October 15, 2019
Singapore’s monetary policy is reviewed by it Monetary Authority (MAS) semi-annually in April and October, and policy tool used is an allowed band for the trade-weighted Singapore dollar, rather than a domestic interest rate. Three-month Sibor is currently at 1.9%. The S-dollar’s policy band has three elements: a mid-point, the band’s width, and a prescribed […] More
October 15, 2019
Details of the Phase I trade deal that U.S. President Trump proclaimed last week remain vague, and it’s unclear even if the Chinese and U.S. negotiators reached any kind of common ground to commit to writing. The pendulum of investor expectations about where trade talks are heading continues to swing wildly by the day and […] More
October 14, 2019
In this important week for the fate of Brexit, sterling dropped 0.9% against the dollar overnight. On a day with holiday closures in the United States (Columbus Day), Canada (Thanksgiving), and Japan (Health Sports Day), the dollar otherwise advanced 0.7% against the kiwi, 0.2% versus the euro, and 0.5% relative to the Australian dollar but […] More
October 11, 2019
Central Banks: The Bank of Korea has a scheduled monetary policy review, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book and minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia Board meeting get published. Fed district presidents Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard and Evans are some of the U.S. central bank officials with public speaking opportunities during the week. Foreign […] More
October 11, 2019
An Iranian oil tanker in the Red Sea was the object of rocket attacks and is spilling oil. The missiles are believed to have been fired by Saudi Arabia. WTI crude oil rose 1.6% in response. British Prime Minister Johnson and Irish PM Varadkar after bilateral talks said they could see a pathway to a […] More
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