New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Euroland Stocks Rally and Oil Retreats Further

December 7, 2016

The ECB Governing Council, which meets tomorrow and is scheduled to release new forecasts, is widely expected to unveil an extension of planned asset purchases beyond March 2017, the current termination date of the program. Stock markets are up today in Europe by 2.9% in Greece, 1.6% in Germany, 1.5% in the U.K., 1.8% in […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

December 2, 2016

Special Events and Holidays: Italian voter referendum on constitution reform (December 4) and Britain’s high court to hear an appeal on Brexit. Spain’s Constitution Day (December 6). Purchasing Manager Surveys: Private or non-oil PMIs for Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Singapore and South Africa. Retail PMIs for Euroland, Germany, France and Italy. Construction PMIs […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Canada

December 7, 2016

This month’s Bank of Canada policy meeting, the last scheduled for 2016, was not synchronized with one of the four full monetary policy reports produced each year. As expected, the overnight money target was left at 0.50%. Since the end of the Great Recession, the rate has been changed just five times: three 25-bp increases […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

Accelerating Economic Activity in the U.S. and Euroland

December 5, 2016

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 2.4 points in November to a 13-month high. Increases of 4.0 points and 5.1 points in production and jobs powered the improvement. Euroland’s services PMI went up less sharply to an 11-month high of 53.8 from 52.8, and this widened the differential between the two indicators by 1.4 […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Wait-And-See Stance at the Reserve Bank of India

December 7, 2016

The latest monetary policy review in India left the repo rate at 6.25%, the reverse repo at 5.75%, and reserve requirements unchanged. A released statement stressed uncertainty, guarded optimism, and a wish to see more data to confirm the baseline forecast amid considerable uncertainty affecting the global and Indian economies. This bi-monthly review is set […] More

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Poland Keeps Record Low 1.5% Reference Interest Rate

December 7, 2016

Poland’s main central bank interest rate has been 1.5% since cuts of 50 basis points in January 2014 and March 2015. In defending the appropriateness of this level after the latest Monetary Policy Council review, officials observed Amid moderate global economic growth and lower commodity prices than in previous years, price growth in the environment […] More

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of Australia

December 6, 2016

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting ended with a decision to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5% and a statement from Governor Lowe that calls the global inflation outlook more balanced, Australian inflation quite low, Aussie growth this quarter in a temporary slowdown, housing stronger, and the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar and Sterling Strengthen but Oil Steps Back

December 6, 2016

The dollar is unchanged against the pound but up 0.4% against the yen, loonie, kiwi and Australian dollar. The U.S. currency also rose 0.2% overnight relative to the euro and Swiss franc. An appeal is being heard in British courts regarding the legality of leaving the EU based solely on a voter referendum. Sterling has […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Investors Disregard Italian Referendum Result and Renzi’s Resignation

December 5, 2016

There was only a fleeting market response to the latest giant step for world populism and anti-globalization. Italy’s government suffered a very poor showing in the constitutional referendum held yesterday. Prime Minister Renzi’s Democratic Party barely captured two of every five votes, and Prime Minister Renzi resigned, setting the state for anti-euro sentiment in the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Sovereign Debt Yields Settle Somewhat Back

December 2, 2016

U.S. and Canadian labor statistics for November were released today. U.S. labor market data were mixed. Fed officials remain virtually certain to raise the fed funds target this month, but the size of the increase won’t exceed 25 basis points. The data do not suggest that the Fed has fallen far behind the curve and […] More

Uncategorized

Latest U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Trends

December 1, 2016

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped 1.3 points to a five-month high of 53.2 in November. Sub-indices for production and orders went up 1.4 points and 0.9 points. Euroland’s comparable index, compiled by Markit Economics, went up much more modestly, rising 0.2 points to 53.7. The German and French indices […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Sharp Overnight Increases in Price of Oil and Long-Term Interest Rates

December 1, 2016

West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded another 3.3% higher to $51.05 per barrel. Manufacturing purchasing manager surveys from November were mostly encouraging on growth but also reflect intensifying input price inflation. The latter development and oil’s recovery support the dramatic climb in ten-year sovereign debt yields. These rose today by 26 basis points in Brazil, […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Second 25-Basis Point Brazilian Selic Rate Cut

November 30, 2016

The Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic Rate was reduced at a second straight meeting by 25 basis points to 13.75%. A similar reduction on October 19 had constituted a trend change. Previously between October 2014 and July 2015, Brazilian monetary policymakers had increased interest rates by 325 basis points from 11.0% to 14.25%. Officials on […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Two Surprises With Different Currency Results

November 30, 2016

2016 will be remembered politically for the British referendum vote in late June to leave the European Union even if such means weaker British economic growth in the long term and the U.S. election in early November of Donald Trump, the significance of which remains quite uncertain. Sterling has fallen, but the dollar has climbed […] More

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