New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Quarter-end Data Deluge

June 30, 2015

The dollar is trading with overnight gains of 1.4% against the kiwi, 0.5% relative to the euro and Swiss franc and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling.  It is unchanged versus the yen and Australia and dollar and down 0.1% against the loonie and yuan. Stocks in China rebounded by a big 6.7%, buoyed by a liquidity injection […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Musings on Midyear and the Greek Crisis

July 1, 2015

What is it about the cusp that separates the first and second half of the calendar year?  The Greek government’s failure to meet its debt payment to the IMF on June 30th brings to mind the devaluation of the Thai bhat on July 1, 1997 that lit the match and ignited a devastating Asian debt […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Romania

July 1, 2015

Romania’s policy interest rate, which had been cut four times in the first half of 2015 by 25 basis points each to a record low now of 1.75%, was not changed after the latest Board meeting.  While a released statement said officials expect inflation to run below the 1.5-3.5% target, other considerations argued for caution:  […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

U.S.-Minus-Eurozone Factory PMI Remained Small in June

July 1, 2015

Strengthening growth in jobs powered a 0.7-point rise of the U.S. purchasing managers index to 53.5 in June, whereas Euroland’s PMI went up just 0.3 points to 52.5.  The PMI differential between those two economies was at a four-month high but only 1.0 point in width. The U.S. jobs index leaped 3.8 points to 55.5.  […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Tankan Survey, PMIs, Greece, and an Approaching U.S. Holiday

July 1, 2015

The dollar began the second half of 2015 on its front foot, firming 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.4% versus the yen, 0.3% relative to sterling, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie and euro and 0.1% against the Australian dollar. The yuan is unchanged, and the New Zealand dollar edged 0.1% higher against its U.S. counterpart. In […] More

Deeper Analysis

June and the Second Quarter in Figures

June 30, 2015

The dollar against currencies in the table below closed mixed both in June and for the second quarter.  Long-term interest rates advanced pretty substantially, but short-term rates barely moved.  Equities had a difficult month, recording the bulk of their declines in the final days of the month, but the performance in the whole quarter was […] More

Central Bank Watch

Easier Chinese Monetary Policy

June 29, 2015

The People’s Bank of China announced several policy-easing steps over the weekend. The one-year lending rate was cut to 4.85% from 5.10%.  Prior reductions in in November, February and May had trimmed the rate by a total of 140 basis points from 6.00%, and there were also single cuts of 25 basis points and 31 […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Post-Greek Spike in Dollar Not Sustained

June 29, 2015

Greece and China made big news over the weekend. First from Greece:  PM Tsipras threw world financial markets a curve ball, vesting the country’s decision on whether to comply with the terms of the creditors in the hands of the people to be decided by referendum next Sunday, July 5. If his intent was in […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

June 26, 2015

Central Banks:  Interest rate policy meetings at Swedish Riksbank and National Bank of Romania.  Bank of England Financial Stability Report and ECB “Account” of Governing Council meeting get published.  Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens delivers a speech. Holidays:  Canada Day on Wednesday and U.S. Independence Day (observed) on Friday. Special Events:  Greek $1.5 billion […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Big Drop in Chinese Stock Market and an Unresolved Greek Debt Crisis

June 26, 2015

Equities slumped 7.9% in China, 2.3% in Hong Kong, 1.5% in Australia, 0.9% in Singapore but fell just 0.3% in Japan. Greece dominates today’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers, which will be followed by a 2-day summit of EU leaders.  The Greek government never resubmitted a revised reform plan, after Monday’s offering was rejected by […] More

Central Bank Watch

Czech National Bank More Upbeat Regarding Economic Trends but No Change in Policy

June 25, 2015

The latest CNB Board’s policy statement conveys three messages: The Czech economy is experiencing stronger growth and faces a reduced deflationary risk. Board members voted unanimously not to change monetary policy settings. The commitment not to tighten policy settings before the second half of 2016 remains intact. The Czech interest rate has been at 0.05% […] More

Central Bank Watch

No Changes to Filipino Monetary Policy After Latest Board Meeting

June 25, 2015

Not only did the Monetary Board leave the 4.0% overnight borrowing rate, 6.0% overnight lending rate and reserve requirements unchanged after its latest policy meeting, but it also released a statement that reiterates virtually identically the points summarized in my review of the prior meeting held on May 14.  Officials at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Greek Talks Looking Grim

June 25, 2015

Daybreak on Thursday brings news of an ultimatum to the Tsipras government from its Troika of creditors, not the breakthrough that investors had been hoping to hear.  The deadline has already passed.  Final decision now moves on to eurozone finance ministers, who meet later this day, but the outlook for a deal does not appear […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Markets Doomed to Be Always Waiting for Something

June 24, 2015

For the record, the past statement week from Wednesday to Wednesday was a good one for the dollar, which appreciated at two speeds.  Advances of 1.4% to 1.8% were clocked against the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and New Zealand and of 0.7% were accrued against the yen, Australian dollar and sterling.  The dollar’s strength […] More

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