October 26, 2020
The week before the U.S. election opened with equity markets on the defensive, led by drops of 2.4% so far in the German Dax, a 0.8% decline in China’s Shanghai Composite index, and losses of 0.7% in France, Italy, and South Korea. There are holiday closures in New Zealand for Labour Day, Austria for National […] Read Article
October 23, 2020
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Japan, Canada, Euroland, Brazil and Colombia. The BOJ meeting coincides with publication of the quarterly Outlook for Economic Growth and Prices and will be followed, as always, by Governor Kuroda’s press conference. Other central bankers speaking in public next week include Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, Swiss […] Read Article
October 22, 2020
Instead of a follow-through measure after last month’s two percentage point rate hike, officials at the Central Bank of Turkey surprised analysts by keeping their one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.25%. Many had been expected the rate to return to its end-2019 level of 12%. The rate initially this year had been slashed by 75 […] Read Article
October 15, 2020
President Trump has not disguised his contempt for states that supported his opponent, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 presidential election. He has again pretty much written off such blue state stalwarts like California, New York and Illinois this year. This note presents my findings from cross-checking state per capita GDP in the most recently available […] Read Article
October 23, 2020
The dollar slipped by 0.4% overnight against the Australian and Canadian dollar, 0.3% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.2% vis-a-vis the peso, kiwi, and euro, and 0.1% versus the yen and yuan. Contrary to the softer trend, the dollar has edged up 0.1% against sterling, and sovereign debt yields and share prices are each firmer. […] More
October 22, 2020
The uncertain U.S. election outcome now just twelve days away continues to have markets on tenterhooks. The final Trump-Biden debate is tonight at 21:00 EDT. U.S. Justice Department officials have found evidence of attempted cyber interference in the result by Iran and Russia. Worsening Covid-19 trends are a second source of investor anxiety. More than […] More
October 21, 2020
The trend in new cases of Covid-19 are intensifying and becoming more dispersed in both Europe, where many governments have been compelled to reimpose restraints on social activity, and the United States where the 24-hour increase again topped 60k. Optimism has swelled that a U.S. fiscal stimulus may get passed before the election. Talks continued […] More
October 20, 2020
It’s T-minus two weeks to the U.S. presidential and congressional election. In national polls, Biden leads by just under 10 percentage points, but suspense continues because of Trump’s refusal to say he will honor the result, the electoral college distortion that necessitates a Democrat to secure a 5% or greater popular vote plurality in order […] More
October 19, 2020
It’s a near miracle that professional sports are even being played in this pandemic year of 2020. It’s even stranger that the 2020 baseball world series pits the winningest National League team against the American League team that had the best regular season won-loss record. The first world series in 1903 and subsequent world series […] More
October 19, 2020
Chinese real GDP expanded at a solid, albeit less-than-forecast 2.7%, rate in the third quarter, supported by strengthening exports, consumption and business expenditures. This lifted the year-on-year growth rate to 4.9% from 3.2% in 2Q and negative 6.8% in 1Q when many activities were locked down. Chinese industrial production and retail sales in September were […] More
October 16, 2020
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Russia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Israel, Turkey, China and Hungary. The Fed Beige Book of U.S. regional economic conditions will be published, and so will minutes of the last monetary policy meetings in Australia and India. ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and DeBelle and Kent […] More
October 16, 2020
Global and U.S. Covid-19 cases rose over the last day by 434k and 65k, while the possibility of a vaccine before the U.S. election is growing more doubtful. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U.K. will opt for no trade deal with the EU unless European leaders make substantial further concessions. That’s not going […] More
October 15, 2020
U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin concedes that a fiscal stimulus deal before the election isn’t going to get done, and there’s little reason to expect the dynamics to shift after November 3rd. Central bankers, whose policies are hitting diminishing returns, have been pleading for more forceful fiscal support. The Dallas Fed President said displaced workers will […] More
October 14, 2020
The U.S. dollar edged down overnight by 0.3% against sterling, 0.2% relative to the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and 0.1% versus the yuan, Swiss franc and yen, while holding steady vis-a-vis the euro and loonie. The dollar price of gold firmed 0.5%. Stock markets in the Pacific Rim rose 0.9% in Indonesia, 0.7% in […] More
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