New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Equities Revive as Markets Look Ahead to FOMC and Kavanaugh Hearing

September 25, 2018

The FOMC is expected to raise its interest rate tomorrow. New forecasts will be released, and Powell presides over a press conference. A third woman has surfaced, accusing Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct. The Senate Judiciary Committee hearing is set for Thursday. The third event of this upcoming three-ring circus will be the […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

September 21, 2018

Central Banks: An FOMC meeting with updated forecasts and a press conference to follow. Other monetary policy reviews scheduled in The Philippines, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Taiwan, and Colombia. Powell, Barkin, Kaplan and Ramsden of the Fed will be speaking publicly. So will Governors Orr, Kuroda and Poloz of the Reserve […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Swiss Quarterly Monetary Policy Review

September 20, 2018

A quarterly review of Swiss monetary policy kept the targeted interest rate at -0.75% within a range of negative 0.25% to negative 1.25% on 3-month Swiss Libor. A statement from the Swiss National Bank protests against a noticeable and unwelcome appreciation of the franc since the previous policy review in June. Subjective foreign exchange market […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Conditions Diverge

September 4, 2018

August saw the widest divergence that I can recall between U.S. factory conditions as measured by the ISM purchasing managers index and factory conditions in the euro area as measured by the IHS PMI. But there is a caveat. IHS also compiles a U.S. manufacturing PMI, and according to that measure, there was a deceleration […] Read Article

Larry's Blog

Jackson and Trump

September 24, 2018

Andrew Jackson, who led America from 1829 to 1837, is President Trump’s favorite former U.S. president. Photo ops of the current president at his oval office desk prominently display a portrait of the seventh president on the wall. And indeed the two men, separated by nearly two centuries, are true soul mates in temperament as […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Last Week’s Stock Market Euphoria Dissipates

September 24, 2018

Equities dropped 2.0% in Hong Kong, 1.8% in India, 1.3% in Indonesia and 0.5% in New Zealand. Losses in European markets so far amount to 1.2% in Greece, 0.6% in Italy, 0.5% in Spain, 0.3% in Germany, 0.2% in France and Switzerland, and 0.1% in Great Britain. The more sour mood reflects China’s refusal to […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Firmer Dollar and Equities as Summer Turns to Autumn

September 21, 2018

The dollar strengthened this Friday by 1.4% against the Turkish lira, 0.7% relative to the Russian ruble and sterling, 0.6% vis-a-vis the South African rand, 0.4% versus the Mexican peso, 0.2% against the yen and Brazilian real, and 0.1% relative to the euro, loonie, Australian and New Zealand dollars. The Hong Kong dollar was an […] More

Central Bank Watch

An Initial Tightening of Norwegian Monetary Policy

September 20, 2018

Norway’s key¬†central bank rate was raised 25 basis points to 0.75%. That’s the first increase in many years but will not be the last. The rate had been lowered by 175 basis points between late 2011 and March 2016. A statement from the Executive Committee observes gradually diminishing excess capacity that should similarly lift inflation […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Softer Dollar

September 20, 2018

The dollar fell overnight by 0.8% against the kiwi, 0.6% relative to sterling, 0.4% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% versus the currencies of America’s NAFTA partners. The yen and yuan are unchanged. China partly matched Trump’s latest round of tariff hikes. While the 10-year German bund and British gilt yields settled back a basis point […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Released Current Account Data and Some Central Bank Decisions

September 19, 2018

The dollar is steady to mostly softer. North America’s stock market rally on Tuesday carried over into Asia and Europe. The ten-year British gilt yield edged up 2 basis points, and gold firmed 0.4%. Oil is steady, as are German bunds and Japanese JGBs. New Zealand recorded a larger-than-forecast NZD 1.619 billion current account deficit […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Fresh Decline in Turkish Lira

September 18, 2018

Turkey grabbed the currency market spotlight on a day otherwise devoid of meaningful data to be reported. The lira dropped 2% against the dollar as President Erdogan took aim against opposition party members of IsBank’s Board of Trustees. The lira’s loss erased the recovery that occurred last week after the Turkish central bank sharply raised […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Many Asian Stock Markets Fall at Least 1.0%

September 17, 2018

While Japan was closed for Respect for the Aged Day, share prices¬†elsewhere in Asia dropped 2.1% in China to a 4-year low, 1.8% in Indonesia, 1.6% in Hong Kong, 1.3% in India, 0.7% in South Korea and 0.6% in Singapore. Investors continue to worry about a trade war involving the United States. Stocks softened much […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

September 14, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Japan, Brazil, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa, Hungary, and Thailand. Minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia policy review to be published. RBA Kent and ECB President Draghi speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: Japan’s Respect for the Aged Day on Monday. India’s Islamic New Year (Moharram) on Thursday. […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Russia Surprises Market with 25-Basis Point Key Interest Rate Hike to 7.5%

September 14, 2018

According to a statement released by the Board of Directors, inflation is climbing toward 4% faster than expected and inflation expectations have moved slightly higher, warranting today’s decision to implement the central bank’s first rate increase since mid-December of 2014. The peak of 17.0% only was retained for 7 weeks. A series of reductions ensued […] More

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