New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Central Bankers Less Confident about What To Do

February 21, 2019

FOMC minutes from the late January policy review clarified that the Committee’s new buzz word “patience” reflects uncertainty as to what outlook the latest economic data and other factors may be implying. “In light of the range of uncertainties associated with global economic and financial developments, the Committee decided that it was not useful at […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

February 8, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Sweden and New Zealand. Powell, Mester, Bostic and George of the Federal Reserve will be speaking publicly. Holidays and Special Events: Japan closed Monday for Foundation Day, and the Eurogroup meets that day as well. British Prime Minister May to update Parliament on Wednesday on the state of Brexit […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Swedish Riksbank

February 13, 2019

Swedish Riksbank has not had a positive repo rate since a 25 basis point cut to zero percent in October 2014. That had been followed by additional reductions of 10 basis points in February 2015 and July 2015 and of 15 bps each in March 2015 and February 2016. But at this past December’s review, […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

February 5, 2019

Service sector growth slowed last month but remained positive in both the United States and the euro area. The ISM-compiled non-manufacturing PMI fell 1.3 points, while the IHS-compiled Ezone services PMI dropped by 1.0 point. The differential between those two data series narrowed slightly but remained significantly U.S.-advantageous at +6.6 points. The U.S. advantage in […] Read Article

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Awaiting FOMC Minutes and Assessing Data Out Earlier Today

February 20, 2019

The FOMC meeting in late January looms as an important inflection point in U.S. monetary policy. The statement released at that time deleted forward guidance that further increases in the target interest rate would be consistent with achieving the Fed’s mandates, instead spoke of patience while determining any future moves, and hinted at changes in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

More Evidence of Softening Euroland Economy

February 19, 2019

Aside from rises of 0.5% against the kiwi, 0.4% versus the Australian dollar and 0.3% relative to the euro, there’s been little net movement in the dollar overnight. Share prices are lower in Asia and Europe. Equities dropped 0.5% in Hong Kong, 0.3% in New Zealand, and 0.2% in Singapore, South Korea, and India. Stocks […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

North American Holidays and Lack of Data Reports Make for a Quiet Start to a New Week

February 18, 2019

North American markets will be shut Monday for the U.S. Presidents Day holiday and Canadian Family Day holiday. Share prices in Asia rose 2.7% in China, 1.8% in Hong Kong and Japan, 1.7% in Indonesia, 0.8% in Singapore and Taiwan, and 0.7% in South Korea but fell 0.9% in India. Among European bourses, stocks so […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Next Week

February 15, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled next week in Indonesia and Sri Lanka, while the European Central Bank, FOMC, and Reserve Bank of Australia will publish minutes from their last policy meetings. Federal Reserve district presidents Mester and Bullard will be speaking publicly, and so too will the governors of the Bank of Canada […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Border Emergency Instead of a Second U.S. Government Shutdown

February 15, 2019

Share prices sank in Asia by 2.2% in Hong Kong, 1.4% in China, 1.3% in South Korea and 1.1% in Japan but have since rallied 1.0% or more in the U.S., Canada, Germany and France. The dollar fell overnight by 0.5% against sterling, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.2% vis-a-vis the kiwi but […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Released Data in the Spotlight

February 14, 2019

Thursday figured to be a day of data watching with the scheduled release of both Euroland and Japanese GDP figures, plus China’s trade balance. But it was much weaker-than-anticipated U.S. retail sales in December that caught the market’s attention, giving greater credence to recent warnings from several economists that U.S. recessionary risks seem to be […] More

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Doesn’t Anticipate a Rate Change This Year or Next

February 13, 2019

The U.S. dollar lost 1.3% overnight against the kiwi. Officials at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to retain a 1.75% Official Cash Rate. This was the 15th straight monetary policy review in which the interest rate benchmark was not moved, and a released statement reiterated that the next rate move could conceivably be […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Policies Driving Currency Markets as More Evidence Emerges of Slower Global Growth

February 13, 2019

Industrial Production in the euro area fell 0.9% in December, more than double the expected slide after a 1.7% drop recorded in November. This resulted in a 4.2% 12-month rate of decline, the biggest on-year contraction since November of 20o9. December output among the common currency bloc’s five largest economies fell from end-2017 levels by […] More

Larry's Blog

Happy 210th Birthday, Abe and Charles

February 12, 2019

Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin were each born on February 12, 1809. No single day in history has yielded a duo that arguably went on to exert as much influence on mankind as that one. It is with a touch of irony that from present time one looks back on the legacy of those men. […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Greater Optimism on A U.S. Border Security Deal

February 12, 2019

The U.S. Congress reached an accord “in principle” on a border security deal. Details still need to be fleshed out, and it’s not clear if President Trump is prepared to sign such. But the development inspired enough hope to lift U.S. share prices about 1% in early Tuesday trading. Stocks earlier rose 2.6% in Japan, […] More

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