New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Euro Sinks 0.6% to 16-Month Low of $1.1240

November 12, 2018

The optics went very poorly for U.S. President Trump at centennial WWI Armistice observances in Paris, where he had to scrap a cemetery visit, was left out of other shared activities, heard a sharp rebuke of nationalism by French President Macron, and endured a stream of troubling political developments happening back in Washington. Currency markets […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

November 9, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Mexico and The Philippines. Quarles, Powell, Kashkari and Evans of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: U.S. Veterans Day on Monday. Brazil observes Proclamation of the Republic Day on Thursday. President Trump visits Europe to attend the WWI centenary celebration of the […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Keeps 2-2.25% Federal Funds Target Range as Expected

November 8, 2018

With no press conference planned, the Federal Open Market released a statement¬†at 14:00 EST (15:00 GMT) that is very similar to the previous meeting’s one, when policy was tightened. As expected this time the fed funds target was left unchanged, but no doubt was left about more rate normalization as officials reiterated the clause “in […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

U.S. and Euro Area Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions Each Improved Less Rapidly in October than September

November 6, 2018

Service sector activity in the euro area and non-manufacturing activity in the United States continued to expand last month but at a somewhat less robust pace than in September. This development paralleled the trend told by manufacturing purchasing manager indices released earlier this month. The right-most column in the table below, which adds the two […] Read Article

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Share Prices End Week with a Thump

November 9, 2018

Equities today lost 2.6% in Hong Kong, 2.0% in Australia, 1.7% in India, 1.4% in China, 1.2% in Taiwan, 1.3% in New Zealand, and 1.1% in Japan. Share prices in key European markets are down 1.3% in Italy, 1.0% in Spain and Britain, 0.9% in France, and 0.6% in Switzerland and Germany. Oil has fallen […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

November 8, 2018

FOMC policy has become an epitome of predictability in rate-rising cycles. For decades, the Fed didn’t even announce policy changes, and it could take some time to discern that one had occurred by watching open market operations and determining behavior that couldn’t be explained by seasonal and other special factors. Policymakers have come to believe […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Political Fireworks but Markets Calm, Awaiting FOMC Announcement

November 8, 2018

U.S. Attorney General Sessions is out and will be replaced by someone critical of the Mueller investigation. President Trump wasted little time adopting a very confrontational stance to the Democratic majority in the House. The FOMC is not expected to hike interest rates today. No press conference is scheduled, but expectations are widespread that there […] More

Central Bank Watch

Iceland’s Central Bank Tightens and Suggest More Restraint May Follow

November 7, 2018

A 25 basis point increase of the Bank of Iceland’s 7-day term rate to 4.50% was the first tightening since November 2015. In between, the benchmark had been reduced by 50 basis points in August 2016 and 25 basis point each in May 2017, June 2017, and October 2017. Today’s rate reversal comes in response […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Down Broadly after Mixed U.S. Election Result

November 7, 2018

The dollar traded down overnight by 1.7% against the kiwi, 1.0% versus the Australian dollar, 0.7% relative to the euro and Swiss franc, 0.5% vis-a-vis the peso and sterling, 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% against the yuan. Share prices fell in Asia but have risen in Europe. Market losses totaled […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Decision Day in America

November 6, 2018

Market behavior today has been unremarkable, as investors around the world wait to see which vision of America has prevailed. The dollar has dipped 0.1-0.2% against the euro, Swiss franc, yuan, and Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand dollars. there’s been a 0.3% drop against the peso and sterling but a 0.1% uptick relative to the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Two Games of Chicken and an Uncertain U.S. Election Unnerving Investors

November 5, 2018

Chinese President Xi Jinping did not budge from his previous posture on trade, throwing cold water on U.S. President Trump’s pre-weekend comments that much progress had been made to defuse the trade war. In response, equity markets in the Pacific Rim slumped today by 1.8% in Hong Kong and Singapore, 1.6% in Japan, 0.9% in […] More

Deeper Analysis

Next Week

November 2, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled at the Federal Reserve and in Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Malaysia and Peru. BOJ Governor Kuroda and ECB Vice President Guindos speak publicly. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September Board meeting and a summary of its end-October meeting, plus the Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. Manufacturing Advantage Over Euro Area Narrowed but Remained Big in October

November 2, 2018

The differential between the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index and the IHS-compiled Euroland factory PMI narrowed last month to +5.7 from +6.6 in September and +6.7 in August. The dollar’s average value was about 1.5% stronger than its September mean, but concerns about U.S. trade protectionism resulted in Euroland’s weakest business confidence in the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Trump Dangles Possibility of Trade Deal with China Before Market Ahead of Mid-Term Election

November 2, 2018

U.S. President Trump claimed trade talk progress after phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping and instructed his cabinet to frame a possible trade deal with China before the G20 summit November 30-December 01 in Buenas Aires. The timing of this development four days ahead of U.S. mid-term elections is conspicuous. Stock markets around the […] More

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