December 10, 2018
After the European Court of Justice ruled that Britain has the right to unilaterally revoke plans to leave the EU without the permission of other members, British Prime Minister cancelled tomorrow’s scheduled vote on her Brexit plan. She lacks the votes. Several released British data today underscore the huge toll that Brexit and domestic political […] Read Article
December 4, 2018
My blog entry three weeks ago presented a mostly upbeat short- to medium-term view of the dollar’s outlook, although downside risks especially further out in time were cited, too. In the role of Devil’s Advocate, this follow-up piece has a more bearish hue, taking into account some shifting developments. U.S. President Trump’s bobbing and weaving […] Read Article
November 30, 2018
The Bank of Korea‘s benchmark interest rate has been raised by 25 basis points to 1.75%. This was the second such increase of the cycle following an initial tightening in November 2017, which had been the first hike since 2011. In between, there were five 25-basis point cuts from March 2014 to June 2016. A […] Read Article
December 6, 2018
The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing PMI rebounded 0.4 points to a reading in November of 60.7. That still reflects rapidly improved conditions. Sub-indices for production, orders and prices climbed by 2.7, 1.0 and 2.6 points between October and last month, but the measure of employment declined 1.3 points. The IHS-compiled service sector purchasing managers index for […] Read Article
December 7, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled at the European Central Bank and at central banks in Switzerland, Brazil, Iceland, Norway, the Philippines, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia. The Bank of Japan publishes findings of its quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations, and Fed Chairman’s postponed testimony before the congressional joint economic committee will […] More
December 7, 2018
The late Thursday rebound in U.S. share prices proved short-lived: the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq at this writing show losses today of 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.1% despite an equity-strengthening performance earlier in Europe and Asia. A successful conclusion to U.S.-Sino trade talks looks to be in peril. Also, the monthly U.S. labor force report revealed […] More
December 6, 2018
Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.9% overnight, and share prices are down even more sharply in the United States, Canada, U.K., Germany, France, Spain, China, Hong Kong. 10-year sovereign debt yields have climbed 14 and 10 basis points in Italy and Greece but fallen 8 bps in the U.K., 7 bps in the U.S., 5 bps in […] More
December 5, 2018
U.S. Treasury market and stock markets are closed for a federal holiday mourning the death of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush. Fed Chairman Powell’s scheduled testimony before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress was scrapped with no announced make-up date yet set, but the Beige Book analysis of regional conditions will be released at […] More
December 4, 2018
Share prices fell 539 points or 2.4% in Japan, 1.0% in Australia, 0.8% in South Korea, 0.7% in Singapore and 0.5% in Taiwan. European markets have lost 1.4% in the U.K., 1.0% in Germany, 1.2% in Spain, 0.9% in Italy and 0.7% in France. In the U.S., the DOW and S&P 500 each lost 0.6% […] More
December 3, 2018
The point differential between the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI and the IHS-compiled Euroland manufacturing purchasing managers index widened 1.8 points in November to 7.5, its greatest width since a similar spread in November 2014. This more sizable U.S. advantage happened in spite of a pricier dollar. With a large export-derived base, manufacturing prosperity tends to ebb […] More
December 3, 2018
Stock markets rose 2.6% in China, 2.5% in Taiwan, 2.3% in Hong Kong, 2.3% in Singapore, 1.8% in Australia, 1.7% in South Korea, 1.5% in Japan, and 1.0% in Indonesia. European share prices so far today have climbed 1.9% in Germany, 2.2% in Italy, 4.7% in Greece, 1.4% in the U.K., 1.3% in Spain, and […] More
November 30, 2018
Share prices were highly volatile in November, closing higher in the U.S., Japan and Canada but lower in Great Britain and the euro area. Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined in all the economies examined in this monthly feature. None of the central bank rates among these economies changed key interest rates. Among developing economies, however, […] More
November 30, 2018
The dollar rose 0.7% against the euro overnight but just 0.1% relative to the yen and sterling. Stocks dropped 1.6% in Australia and 0.8% in Indonesia and South Korea but climbed 0.8% in China, 0.5% in Hong Kong and 0.4% in Japan. Share prices in Europe are down 1.0% in the U.K. and 0.3% in […] More
November 29, 2018
FOMC minutes released today suggest a lesser shift in Fed policy intentions that markets perhaps assumed after yesterday’s speech by Chairman Powell. His remark regarding the federal funds rate perhaps now only being slightly lower than rate neutrality is ascribed in these minutes to just a few committee participants. A few participants, while viewing further […] More
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