New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Attack on Saudi Refinery and Oil Field Sends Price of Oil Up Nearly 10%

September 16, 2019

More than 15 drone and cruise missile attacks against the largest oil refinery and an oil field in Saudi Arabia on Saturday is likely to impede over half that country’s production. The attack is believed to have been orchestrated by Iran or perhaps Iraq, but culpability hasn’t been firmly established. U.S. President Trump has threatened […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu (September 14-20, 2019)

September 13, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews take place next week in the United States, Japan, U.K., Switzerland, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, and Norway. Minutes of the last Australian central bank policy meeting will be published. The FOMC is likely to cut the fed funds rate target and will update macroeconomic and interest rate projections, and Chairman […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

ECB Enhances Stimulus

September 12, 2019

Policymakers at the European Central Bank as expected cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to minus 0.50%, announced an open-ended asset purchase program to start in November at EUR 20 billion per month, said targeted LTRO operations will carry the average deposit rate, and introduced a a 2-tiered system of reserve remuneration in […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

Comment about the ISM’s U.S. PMI for Non-Manufacturing

September 5, 2019

U.S. share prices were thrust sharply higher today, initially by news that Chinese officials are coming to Washington to resume trade talks, but again later as investors reacted to released U.S. data. U.S. labor productivity and unit labor costs increased robustly last quarter by 2.3% and 2.6% at annualized quarter-on-quarter comparisons. Factory orders advanced 1.4% […] Read Article

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Swing Continues Away from Safe Haven Assets

September 13, 2019

Ten-year sovereign debt yields increased this Friday by six basis points in Japan, 5 bps in the U.K., and 3 basis points in the U.S. and Germany. The dollar fell overnight by 1.0% against sterling, 0.5% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro, 0.2% versus the peso and 0.1% against the yen and […] More

Uncategorized

Rate Cut in Turkey

September 12, 2019

Policymakers at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey slashed the one-week repo rate by a greater-than-expected 325 basis points in follow-up to a 425-basis point cut in July from a peak of 24.0% that had prevailed since a 625-basis point increase in September of 2018. The rate now becomes 16.5%, which the monetary […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Markets React to ECB Stimulus, U.S. CPI Data, and Continuing Hopes on Trade Talks

September 12, 2019

Policymakers at the European Central Bank as expected cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to minus 0.50%, announced an open-ended asset purchase program to start in November at EUR 20 billion per month, said targeted LTRO operations will carry the average deposit rate, and introduced a a 2-tiered system of reserve remuneration in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Better Investor Mood Persisting

September 11, 2019

Share prices advanced overnight by 1.8% in Hong Kong, 1.6% in Singapore, 1.0% in Japan, 0.8% in South Korea, 0.7% in Indonesia and 0.4% in India and Australia. China, down 0.4%, was an exception to this upward trend. Stock markets in Europe so far show gains of 0.9% in the U.K., 0.7% in Germany, 0.4% […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Safe Haven Assets in Lessening Demand

September 10, 2019

Some of the recent uncertainties for investors seem somewhat less anxiety-provoking. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to now be intent on working out a Brexit deal with the EU instead of a no-deal exit. Reports have surfaced that the Merkel government in Germany is considering a relaxation of its rigid insistence on balancing the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Atypically High Amount of Data Reported This Monday

September 9, 2019

Data releases rather than market action were in today’s spotlight. Japanese real GDP growth last quarter was revised downward by a half percentage point to an annualized 1.3% from the first quarter. Business investment and exports were weaker than estimated initially. Real GDP was 1.0% greater than in the second quarter of 2018, and the […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: September 7-13, 2019

September 6, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank and in Poland, Serbia, Turkey, Malaysia and Peru. ECB macroeconomic forecasts will be updated, and a deposit rate decline is considered quite possible. ECB President Draghi and Vlieghe of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will be speaking publicly. Events and Holidays: South Koreans […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Third Russian Central Bank Rate Cut

September 6, 2019

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as it had done in June and July, cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points at today’s meeting, citing in a released statement the continuing downtrend of inflation, lower-than-expected economic growth and elevated global risks. Officials lowered their projections for both growth and inflation slightly, and […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Chinese Monetary Policy Eased, Powell to Speak, and Some Important Data Releases

September 6, 2019

The People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratios of commercial banks for the seventh time since early 2018, releasing a potential extra CNY 900 billion of liquidity. About CNY 3.63 trillion ($500 billion) had been unleashed in the six earlier actions. The latest easing comes as the U.S. imposes further tariffs and in […] More

Central Bank Watch

Third Cut of National Bank of Ukraine Easing Cycle, and Many More to Come

September 5, 2019

Ukraine’s central bank policy rate has been cut by 50 basis points to 16.5%. This follows similar-sized easings earlier this year in April and July. Since officials consider 8% to be the rate level that represents a neutral monetary stance and since officials believe that CPI inflation, which is now at 9.1%, will continue fallingĀ  […] More

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