Larry’s Blog
The Illusion of U.S. Inflation
May 9, 2012
The battle cry for the past decade of the critics of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has been “inflation is coming, inflation is coming!!” Never mind that their warning lacks empirical support and includes serious contra-indications when compared with the historical trends of inflation compared to trends of growth in real GDP, jobs, and population, [...] More
ECB Press Conference Highlights and Analysis
May 3, 2012
The ECB did not change its key interest rates nor make any concrete announcements regarding non-standard measures to fortify market functionality and the transmission of ECB policy to the real economy. There was no consideration of a rate reduction at the present time or any other form of stimulus. The SMP facility remains a possible [...] More
Comments on the Bernanke Press Conference
April 25, 2012
Several useful messages were delivered at the press conference. One of the biggest downside growth risks still facing the United States is the uncertain degree of fiscal drag that will be felt at the start of next year. If Congress legislates no changes in planned austerity from the spending and tax side, the Fed Chairman [...] More
U.S. Presidential Options
March 19, 2012
The president of the United States after January 19, 2013 will be Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or none of the above. Voters will decide the answer in less than eight months, but the manipulation of opinion by special interest money is so sophisticated these days that the choice arguably will be akin to [...] More
The U.S. Jobs Deficit
February 9, 2012
America’s jobs deficit recently climbed above 30 million workers. Although U.S. labor market data have improved considerably of late, Fed Chairman Bernanke continues to emphasize the market’s very weak overall level rather than the better pace of change, and he’s correct to do so. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment recorded identical rates of growth of 1.84% [...] More
Romney D Finally Getting Respect
February 2, 2012
With a landslide primary victory in Florida, which along with New York is tied with the third most electoral college votes (29 each) in the nation, Mitt Romney is finally getting the due respect he needs to challenge President Obama in November. It is said that money can’t buy one love, but it certainly helps [...] More
U.S. Economic Performance Under Obama and Bush43
January 26, 2012
With the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign heating up, traffic has risen noticeably to an article on this site that was posted in August 2008, which compared growth, inflation, and the performance of share prices, the dollar, and job creation under different presidencies since the Kennedy administration. Some of the figures upon which that original study [...] More
An Awful Way to Pick Presidential Candidates
January 17, 2012
The selection process for U.S. presidential nominees does a great disservice to voters and aspiring candidates. The use of state primaries was developed to make the choice more democratic but in practice has made it less so than when the main vetting of candidates was done by party professionals. In the Iowa caucus, Mitt Romney [...] More
Betting Against the Euro: Nothing is Ever a Slam Dunk
January 4, 2012
The news out of Continental Europe was horrendous in 2011. It was the second full calendar year of an intensifying sovereign debt crisis. Politicians devised a series of rescue plans that did not address the root imbalances behind the problem and offered insufficient firepower to end sentiment that the common currency is heading for a [...] More
End of the Euro as We Know It
December 13, 2011
The belief is gaining adherents that a break-up of the euro is a matter of when, not if. The unthinkable is transforming into conventional wisdom of what will be. Potentially catastrophic financial and economic consequences of any modification in the 17-nation configuration of EMU, however small, had been the basis for the perceived impossibility of [...] More
