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New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update

Unexpected Leap in U.S. Employment Last Month Dominates Friday’s News

December 6, 2019

U.S. non-farm payroll jobs increased 266k in November. Not since January had NFP risen so sharply, and the rises in September-October were revised upward by a combined 41k as well. Even with the resolution of the GM strike, these figures dwarfed expectations. Moreover, the jobless rate fell back 0.1 percentage point to a multi-decade low […] More

A Busy Day on Several Fronts

December 5, 2019

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi has instructed Democratic members to draw up articles of impeachment against President Trump. Revised third-quarter GDP data for the euro area left the quarterly growth rate unchanged at 0.2%, which matches the second-quarter result. Consumption, business investment, and government spending made positive growth contributions, but net exports and inventories […] More

Concerns Over Trade Lessen

December 4, 2019

Zig-zagging perceptions from day to day about the likelihood of a U.S.-Sino trade deal have been a major source all year of short-term financial market volatility. The shifts often happen inexplicably, like changing weather. Today investors are more hopeful than yesterday that a deal will be reached to culminate phase I of the trade negotiations. […] More

Fading Hopes of a U.S.-Sino Trade Deal Hammers Share Prices

December 3, 2019

Evidence keeps mounting that a near-term trade deal is slipping away. President Trump denied any deadline and hinted that a phase I agreement will not happen before next year. Angry about the U.S. congress’s resolution of support for Hong Kong protesters and perceived U.S. interference in Chinese domestic affairs on the mainland, Beijing officials reportedly […] More

Trump Plays the Tariff Card with Predictable Negative Economic Results

December 2, 2019

President Trump opened a fresh tariff offensive, this time against Brazil and Argentina which previously had been exempted from tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. He did this in response to the depreciation of those countries’ currencies and the difficulty such had exerted on U.S. farmers. But the immediate effect of his […] More

Dollar Mostly Unchanged Overnight, Share Prices and Sovereign Debt Yields Slip a Bit

November 26, 2019

The dollar is unchanged from Monday closing levels against the yen, Swiss franc, kiwi and Australian dollar and has moved no more than 0.1% versus the euro, loonie, yuan and peso. A bigger dollar change of 0.4% occurred against sterling. The 10-year British gilt yield fell three basis points. Ten-year U.S. Treasury, German bund, and […] More

Share Prices Strengthened on China Trade Concession and Favorable Corporate News

November 25, 2019

It’s been a risk-on start to this holiday-shortened week. Share prices rose 1.5% in Hong Kong, 1.3% in India, 1.0% in South Korea, 0.8% in Japan and 0.7% in China. European markets so far show gains of 0.4-0.6% in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Switzeraland as well as a 0.8% jump in the British Ftse. […] More

Meaningful Data from Abroad and a Paralyzed U.S. Federal Government

November 22, 2019

Today’s main dollar move has been a 0.4% rise against sterling. Provisional U.K. purchasing manager survey results from November revealed surprisingly weaker-than-expected developments. The composite PMI fell 1.5 points to a sub-50 reading of 48.5, lowest since July 2016 or, that is, right after the infamously ill-advised Brexit referendum. Both manufacturing (48.3) and services (48.6) […] More

Investors Concerned about Trade Strains Augmenting Slow Global Growth

November 21, 2019

Share prices overnight in the Pacific Rim fell 1.6% in Hong Kong, 1.4% in South Korea, 1.2% in Singapore, 0.7% in Australia, 0.6% in Taiwan and Indonesia, 0.5% in Japan and 0.3% in China. European stock markets are down but not as sharply as Asia’s. The dollar today is little changed since Wednesday’s close. Ten-year […] More

China Uncertainty Weighing on Stocks

November 20, 2019

For some time now, much of the day-to-day swings in financial market sentiment has been attributed to shifting perceptions about U.S.-Sino trade talks, and oftentimes in the absence of  concrete understanding of how those talks are really progressing. It makes one wonder if the trade talks have been a convenient excuse for explaining away normal […] More

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