Euroland GDP

Yield Curve Inversion Amplifies Recession Fears and Flight to Safe Assets

August 14, 2019

The 2-year Treasury note yield edged marginally above the 10-year yield for the first time in 14-1/2 years. This and a similar yield curve inversion in the U.K. happened as investors selectively fixated on weak data while ignoring some better-than-expected statistics, causing share prices to drop sharply in Europe and the United States. Losses amount […] More

Released Data in the Spotlight

February 14, 2019

Thursday figured to be a day of data watching with the scheduled release of both Euroland and Japanese GDP figures, plus China’s trade balance. But it was much weaker-than-anticipated U.S. retail sales in December that caught the market’s attention, giving greater credence to recent warnings from several economists that U.S. recessionary risks seem to be […] More

Short-Lived Fed Stockmarket Rally

January 31, 2019

The FOMC’s tightening pause gave a big boost to U.S. stocks yesterday and was augmented by some better-than-expected corporate earnings.  But the DOW fell in the first hour of U.S. trading, and share prices have also weakened today in Germany France, and Australia. This contrasts with gains close to 1% in China, Hong Kong and […] More

U.S. Stocks Under Renewed Selling Pressure

December 7, 2018

The late Thursday rebound in U.S. share prices proved short-lived: the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq at this writing show losses today of 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.1% despite an equity-strengthening performance earlier in Europe and Asia. A successful conclusion to U.S.-Sino trade talks looks to be in peril. Also, the monthly U.S. labor force report revealed […] More

Japanese GDP Contracted in 3Q, while Eurozone Growth Slowed in Half

November 14, 2018

Data released this Wednesday confirmed a widening gap between economic growth in the United States on the one hand (3.5% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate SAAR last quarter) and Japan and Euroland on the other. Japanese real GDP contracted 0.3%, or 1.2% SAAR in 3Q. Personal consumption (-0.5% SAAR), public sector expenditures (-0.9%), and […] More

Volatile Market Session on Final Business Day of the Quarter and Amid Many Data Reports

June 29, 2018

Share prices climbed 2.8% in Hong Kong, 2.3% in Indonesia, 2.2% in China, 1.7% in Taiwan, but just 0.2% in Japan. In Europe, equities have risen 1.3% in Germany and France, 1.6% in Switzerland, 1.0% in Italy and 0.6% in the U.K.. The DOW shows a gain of slightly over 1.0% so far today. Another […] More

Dollar Loses Ground

June 7, 2018

The dollar fell overnight by 0.9% against the euro, 0.5% versus the Swiss franc, 0.2% relative to the yen, and nearly 2% vis-a-vis the Turkish lira. The lira had been slumping this year on rising inflation, increasingly autocratic politics, and the central bank’s pressured neglect of its currency. A 75-basis point interest rate hike in […] More

Lots of Data Released and Mostly on the Softer Side

May 15, 2018

The dollar strengthened across the board overnight, rising 0.7% against the peso, 0.4% relative to the euro, Aussie dollar and yuan, 0.3% versus the yen and sterling, and 0.2% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and kiwi. Equity markets in the Pacific Rim mostly fell, a 0.6% rise in China being the main exception. Share […] More

Significant Data Reports

February 14, 2018

Japanese real GDP expanded only 0.5% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate last quarter, the weakest pace in eight quarters and down from 2.2% in 3Q and 2.5% in 2Q17. GDP still grew faster (1.6%) in 2017 than the prior year’s pace of 0.9%. The GDP price deflator went up merely 0.2% in 2017 and […] More

Yesterday’s Dollar Rebound Already Petering Out

January 30, 2018

The dollar‘s advance on Monday was trimmed by overnight losses of 0.5% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% relative to the euro and yen, 0.2% vis-a-vis the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and 0.1% versus the loonie and sterling. Investors want to see exactly what President Trump presents in tonight’s state of the union address and […] More

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