Euroland GDP

Weak Data and Revised Forecasts Deliver A Reality Check

June 9, 2020

The mood of investors has turned bearish again. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell four basis points and is 8 bps below its recent high. 10-year Japanese JGB and British gilt yields slipped 3 and 1 basis points overnight. The price of WTI oil settled back 0.6%, while that of gold, which benefits from risk […] More

Fractious Politics Magnifying Fear Over the Covid-19 Pandemic

May 15, 2020

The Trump Administration’s harsh rhetoric against China has been elevated to trade sanctions. Semiconductor shipments to the Chinese firm Huawei are being prevented. In another disturbing political development, British Prime Minister Johnson reaffirmed and with more force that there will be no post-Brexit negotiations with the EU beyond the end of this year. In 2020, […] More

ECB Monetary Policy Review and Some Atrocious Economic Data

April 30, 2020

At a scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, officials left key interest rate unchanged (a 0.0% refinancing rate flanked by a -0.5% deposit rate and a 0.25% marginal lending rate). Quantitative stimulus (asset purchases) was not enhanced beyond last month’s parameters. Terms were relaxed on some lending operations, and a new series […] More

Partial Reversal of Monday’s Extreme Financial Market Moves but Mood Remains Extremely Guarded

March 10, 2020

Today’s rebound in equities and sovereign debt yields looks more like a dead-cat bounce than a trend reversal because the Covid-19 pandemic is still widening, skepticism about policy effectiveness and forcefulness is enormous, and the Saudi-Russian oil war is unsettled. Share prices in the Pacific Rim rose 1.8% in China, 3.1% in Australia, 1.6% in […] More

European GDP, U.S. Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Continuing Coronavirus Spread, and Another Trump Dispute With Own Government People

February 14, 2020

From a news standpoint, Friday has been a very busy day, but financial market movements have been tempered. Mid-morning in NY finds the dollar up 0.2% against the Swiss franc and sterling and plus-or-minus 0.1% relative to other key currencies. Share prices fell 0.6% in Japan and 0.5% in India and New Zealand but up […] More

Another Wave of Coronavirus-Related Risk Aversion to End Month of January

January 31, 2020

Near to noontime in New York, the DOW, S&P 500 and Canadian TSE indices shows losses of 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.9% in North American trading. Earlier, stocks fell 1.9% in Indonesia, 1.4% in South Korea, 0.9% in Malaysia, and 0.5% in Hong Kong and India. China’s market continues to stay shut. In Europe, the British […] More

Important Japanese, Euro Area, and Chinese Data Released

November 14, 2019

Japanese real GDP expanded at a lower-than-forecast 0.2% last quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. It was the weakest quarterly growth rate in a year. Net exports and inventories combined to exert a 1.8 percentage point drag on GDP growth. The GDP price deflator rose 0.6% between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019. […] More

Yield Curve Inversion Amplifies Recession Fears and Flight to Safe Assets

August 14, 2019

The 2-year Treasury note yield edged marginally above the 10-year yield for the first time in 14-1/2 years. This and a similar yield curve inversion in the U.K. happened as investors selectively fixated on weak data while ignoring some better-than-expected statistics, causing share prices to drop sharply in Europe and the United States. Losses amount […] More

Released Data in the Spotlight

February 14, 2019

Thursday figured to be a day of data watching with the scheduled release of both Euroland and Japanese GDP figures, plus China’s trade balance. But it was much weaker-than-anticipated U.S. retail sales in December that caught the market’s attention, giving greater credence to recent warnings from several economists that U.S. recessionary risks seem to be […] More

Short-Lived Fed Stockmarket Rally

January 31, 2019

The FOMC’s tightening pause gave a big boost to U.S. stocks yesterday and was augmented by some better-than-expected corporate earnings.  But the DOW fell in the first hour of U.S. trading, and share prices have also weakened today in Germany France, and Australia. This contrasts with gains close to 1% in China, Hong Kong and […] More

css.php