Reserve Bank of Australia
Investors Following the Bouncing Tariff Ball and Are Meanwhile Surprised by an Unexpected Australian Interest Rate Decision
July 8, 2025
Continuing tariff policy uncertainty is making day-to-day financial market activity very choppy. President Trump had intensified tariff war fears on Monday by disclosing some hefty planned import levies, for instance 40% on goods shipped from Laos, 36% from Thailand, 35% from Serbia, 26% from Kazakhstan, 30% from South Africa, 25% from Japan, South Korea and […] More
Interest Rate Cuts in Australia and China
May 20, 2025
Australia’s OCR cut of 25 basis points to a 23-month low of 3.85% today was the second such move since February, but Governor Bullock and a released statement acknowledged significant changes since that initial reduction. Price risks have diminished, while the global landscape for growth now looks much less supportive. Bullock revealed that monetary officials […] More
Producer Price Disinflation and Chinese and Australian Interest Rate Cuts
May 20, 2025
The U.S. dollar’s biggest overnight move was a 0.9% advance against the Australian dollar that followed an as-expected cut in the Reserve Bank of Australia Official Cash Rate but also a more dovish-than-expected statement and press conference explaining the action. The weighted DXY dollar index ticked only 0.1% higher. Whereas U.S. stock futures are slightly […] More
Investors Remain Highly Skeptical about President Trump’s Tariff Plans on This April Fool’s Day
April 1, 2025
The lack of confidence in the U.S. tariff changes to take effect tomorrow is underscored by diverse movements overnight in equities. The expectation is that his tariff moves and other dramatic changes made to the federal government will turn out very poorly for the United States and ultimately improve the relative significance of other countries […] More
Australian Interest Rate Cut
February 18, 2025
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Official Cash Rate has been cut by 25 basis points to 4.1% after being held at a peak of 4.35% since November 2023. The reduction size met analyst expectations but was accompanied by a statement with loads of cautionary rhetoric and assertions that a restrictive stance is still needed. The […] More
Perverse Reaction of Australian Financials After First RBA Rate Cut Since November 2020
February 18, 2025
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Official Cash Rate has been cut by 25 basis points to 4.1% after being held at a peak of 4.35% since November 2023. The reduction size met analyst expectations but was accompanied by a statement with loads of cautionary rhetoric and assertions that a restrictive stance is still needed. In […] More
Data Cyclone
December 10, 2024
This Tuesday was greeted with a heap of price and industrial production data, a downward revision to U.S. unit labor cost growth, Chinese trade figures, and central bank rate decisions in Australia and Armenia. The dollar strengthened overnight by 1.1-1.2% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.6% relative to the yen, and 0.4% versus […] More
Investor Flight to Safety After Putin Threatens Use of Nuclear Weapons
November 19, 2024
Geopolitical risk took a turn for the worse today. Russian President Putin widened conditions under which nuclear weapons might be used not only against Ukraine but allies of Ukraine whose long-range missiles are used against Russian sites by Ukraine. The clear implication is a much feared broader European war with weapons of mass destruction. Putin’s […] More
Last Day for Voting in the 2024 U.S. Election
November 5, 2024
In these polarized times, one area of wide agreement surrounding today’s U.S. election is that the stakes riding on the outcome are enormously high. Voters have been prepped not to be surprised if the winners of the presidential race and several congressional contests remained undecided at the end of this day, if not for several […] More
Investors Heartened by Hopes of Lower Interest Rates while Disregarding Enhanced Likelihood of a Trump Victory and the Direr Middle Eastern Situation
September 24, 2024
Latest U.S. opinion polls show revived support for former President Trump especially among key swing states. Odds of a multi-dimensional war in the Middle East have risen. This also favors Trump winning back the White House. Dovish monetary policy signals in China, Japan, and Australia reveal a broadening influence of the Fed’s reprioritization on other […] More
