Bank of Japan Tankan survey
Business World Plows On In Spite of Dystopic Newsfeed
December 15, 2025
(161) The coming week will be the last one of 2025 in which financial markets are not heavily affected by year-end factors. A heavy menu of economic data releases, including belated U.S. ones due to the government shutdown. Oftentimes particularly in the early years of the floating exchange rate era, the dollar exhibited a downward […] More
Investors Remain Highly Skeptical about President Trump’s Tariff Plans on This April Fool’s Day
April 1, 2025
The lack of confidence in the U.S. tariff changes to take effect tomorrow is underscored by diverse movements overnight in equities. The expectation is that his tariff moves and other dramatic changes made to the federal government will turn out very poorly for the United States and ultimately improve the relative significance of other countries […] More
Dollar Steps Up as Final Quarter of 2024 Begins
October 1, 2024
Remarks by Fed Chairman Powell yesterday afternoon countered mounting speculation of another 50-basis point rate cut, offering the alternative of two 25-bp moves before yearend as a far likelier scenario. In response, the dollar rebounded overnight by 0.4% against the euro, sterling and kiwi, 0.2% versus the yuan, and 0.1% against the yen, Swiss franc […] More
Averted U.S. Government Shutdown Hasn’t Changed Financial Market Dynamics
October 2, 2023
The approved continuing resolution to keep the U.S. government running is only a temporary 48-day remedy. Moreover, it removes a downside short-term risk to U.S. growth and therefore a potential deterrent to Fed officials raising interest rates additionally this quarter. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose overnight by six basis points in the United States, four […] More
June PMI Reports Put Spotlight on Deteriorating Factory Conditions Around the World
July 3, 2023
The observance of Canada Day and tomorrow’s Independence Day holiday in the United States will deprive market activity in the early part of this week. U.S. stock futures are little changed from Friday’s elevated closing levels. Share prices in Europe are similarly quite steady, whereas Asian markets took their lead from Friday’s rally, with gains […] More
Awaiting FOMC and Digesting Japanese Tankan and Released Price Data
December 14, 2022
The last scheduled FOMC meeting of 2022 will release a statement at 19:00 GMT. It will be accompanied by updated forecasts and followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference that starts at 19:30 GMT (14:30 EST). Street estimates center on a half percentage point interest rate hike today. In overnight trading the dollar has dropped 0.6% […] More
A Sign Emerges that Supply Constraints May Be Easing, but Investors Remain Bearish
July 1, 2022
Today’s been another fine day for the dollar. Thus far, the greenback shows gains of 1.6% against the Australian dollar, 1.5% versus the Swiss franc, 1.3% relative to the kiwi, 0.8% vis-a-vis sterling, 0.4% against the Canadian dollar but just 0.2% against the euro and zero percent against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. Equity […] More
Quiet Start to an Important Week
December 13, 2021
The dollar firmed o.2% overnight against the euro, Swiss franc and on a weighted basis as measured by the DXY index. The U.S. currency advanced more sharply versus the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars — respectively 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.4% — but has not moved on net relative to Japan’s yen. Equity markets rose […] More
Evidence of Two-Speed Post-Pandemic Recovery and Some Encouraging News on the Inflation Front
July 1, 2021
The first day of July brought a slew of manufacturing purchasing manager surveys. Recovery from the Covid recession is developing faster than than the upswing from the Great Recession, but countries that have been forced to reimpose restrictions on social gathering are seeing their recoveries lag others. Currencies are also becoming more aligned with Covid-management […] More
Risk On Despite Gigantic Hacking Incident
December 14, 2020
Russia again is being accused of an enormous cyber crime centered on Google. Many, many passwords have been compromised. Global Covid cases over the past 3 days (72 hours) totaled just slightly less than 2 million, and the worldwide death count was nearly 30k. There were almost 700k cases and over 6.5k deaths in the […] More
