Central Bank Watch
Chinese 5-Year Loan Prime Rate Reduction
February 20, 2024
The biggest central banking development of the day was the decision by officials at the People’s Bank of China to lower their 5-year Loan Prime Rate by a record 25 basis points to 3.95%. Analysts had anticipated an easing gesture but were looking for a cut of only 15 bps to buoy the economy’s increasingly […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Seemingly Contradictory Themes
February 20, 2024
Contradictory financial news headlines this Tuesday do not paint a consistent story. For a couple of months, Fed watchers with encouragement from top FRS officials have been trying to discern when and how quickly interest rates will be lowered. Out of the blue today, there’s a headline that the highly credentialed economist and former Treasury […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Growth & Inflation Since 2021 Versus Performance of Other Key Industrialized Economies
February 19, 2024
Despite widespread yet thus far incorrect predictions of a U.S. recession in 2023, opinion poll findings indicate that voters are not happy about the U.S. economic performance during the three years that Joe Biden has been president and show that more confidence exists in how the economy would perform if Trump is the next president […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
China Reopens After Week-Long Lunar New Year Celebration but Global Market Depth Still Not Back to Full Strength
February 19, 2024
The Shanghai Composite equity index rose 1.6% on its first post-holiday session, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed down 1.1% and Taiwan only edged 0.2% higher. In other Pacific Rim markets, share prices remained unchanged in Japan, fell 0.6% in New Zealand, and rose 0.4% in India, 0.2% in Taiwan and 0.1% in Singapore. European […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: February 17-23, 2024
February 16, 2024
Central Banks: Interest rate policies to be reviewed in Turkey, South Korea, Indonesia and China. FOMC minutes and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be released. Holidays and Events: U.S. Presidents Day on Monday and Japan’s Emperor’s Birthday holiday on Friday. European finance ministers meet Thursday. Scheduled U.S. Economic Data Releases: Existing home […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Marking Time Ahead of U.S. Producer Price Release
February 16, 2024
The dollar is unchanged from Thursday closing levels against the euro, sterling, yuan, peso and Canadian dollar. The greenback has dipped 0.1% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars but edged up 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. Chinese markets remain shut as they’ve been all week in observance of the start of the Year […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lots More Data to Reflect Upon
February 15, 2024
Investors are getting a much better picture of growth and inflation trends late in 2023 and into 2024. China’s is the only major stock market to remain closed for the New Year holiday. Elsewhere in the Pacific Rim, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.2% higher in spite of unexpected news that that economy had slipped into recession. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Indonesian Election and Euroland GDP Headline Wednesday’s Agenda
February 14, 2024
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto appears headed for victory in today’s Indonesian presidential election. Many votes still need to be counted, but with nearly 60% of the votes among those already tallied, he holds a large lead against his two opponents so far. The second report on fourth-quarter Euroland GDP are unrevised from flash indications reported […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Hotter-than-Predicted U.S. CPI Data Elicit Adverse Market Reaction
February 13, 2024
U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly remained above 3.0% in January. A 0.3% monthly increase was the most since September, and the 12-month rate of increased slowed less sharply than forecast, returning to November’s 5-month low of 3.1% but showing no net improvement since 3.0% recorded last June. U.S. core consumer prices, which exclude food and […] More
Deeper Analysis
Age Emerges As Big Issue in Looming U.S. Presidential Election
February 12, 2024
If this year’s election is the widely assumed rematch of the vote in 2020, the person sworn into office on January 20, 2025 would be either 78 years seven months in the case of Donald Trump or 82 years and two months if Joe Biden wins. The U.S. Constitution places no age limit on the […] More
