New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar a Bit Softer and Equities Up Ahead of Labor Dept U.S. Report on Employment Situation

May 3, 2024

Fed Chairman Powell’s quelling of interest rate hike fears has alleviated investor concerns for now. It would probably take a significant overshoot of jobs and wage growth in today’s April data to remove that hopeful mood. Investors are anticipating a 240k rise in non-farm payrolls and marginally slower on-year wage growth of about 4.0%. U.S. […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: May 4-10, 2024

May 3, 2024

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in the U.K., Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Sweden, Poland, Serbia, Moldova, Iceland, and Malaysia. A summary of the Bank of Japan’s April 25-26th Board meeting will be published, and markets will get a clearer idea of how much intervention has been done by Japan. Governor Bailey of the Bank […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Czech National Bank Cuts Rate Again But Keeps Stance in Restrictive Territory

May 2, 2024

The CNB two-week repo rate was lowered by 50 basis points to 5.25% at today’s policy review, bringing the cumulative decline since December to 7.0% where such had previously been since June 2022. The vote to reduce the interest rate was a unanimous one. Czech consumer price inflation was 2.0% in both February and March, […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

April 2024 in Figures

May 1, 2024

In April, 10-year sovereign debt yields rose roughly as much, and in the U.S. case more, than in the whole first quarter. Central bank short-term interest rates were not changed in any of the central banks featured in the table below but fell by 20 percentage points in Argentina, 200 basis points in Kyrgyzstan, 100 […] Read Article

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

More Japanese Intervention Suspected and General Relief that Powell Didn’t Put a Rate Hike More Explicitly in Play

May 2, 2024

Dollar/Yen fluctuated in a wide 1.3% trading range overnight. Japan’s Ministry of Finance is suspected of selling more foreign currency to support their currency. Intervention the other day is thought to have exceeded $20 billion. Published minutes today taken from the March Bank of Japan mid-March Board meeting express concern about the yen and voice […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference

May 1, 2024

The FOMC statement includes two changes compared to the prior March 20th statement. An added sentence to the first paragraph reads, In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. This comment follows the repeated remark that “inflation has eased over the past years but remains […] More

Central Bank Watch

 FOMC Preview

May 1, 2024

The Fed is in a difficult bind, partly resulting from the shift toward making policymaking more transparent. Four enormous shocks over the past two decades have eroded general confidence in all institutions of authority including the Fed: the financial crisis of 2007-8, a technology revolution that has transformed how economic and other news get received, […] More

Central Bank Watch

Rate Cuts by Central Banks in Azerbaijan and Colombia

May 1, 2024

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, where CPI inflation of 1.0% in March was at a 111-month low and down from 13.9% touched in December 2022, the refinancing rate has been sliced by another quarter percentage point to a 29-month low of 7.25%. This was the fifth reduction since a peak of 9.0% that prevailed from […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

May Day and the FOMC

May 1, 2024

Financial markets are shut in a slew of countries — but not in the U.K., Japan or the United States — for May Day observances that extol the rights of workers. The dollar is modestly higher. Japanese officials have not confirmed nor denied yesterday’s strongly suspected intervention triggered after the yen fell to as low […] More

Central Bank Watch

Armenian and Kyrgyzstani Central Bank Rate Cuts

April 30, 2024

The Central Bank of Armenia‘s refinancing rate recorded its eighth reduction, dropping 25 basis points to 8.25%. From a high of 10.75% from December 2022 until an initial rate cut last June, the rate has so far been lowered by 250 basis points. With sub-zero consumer price inflation since November versus a medium-term target of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Much Data Out But Main Attention Turning to Fed as FOMC Begins Policy Review

April 30, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day review of U.S. monetary policy today. No policy changes are anticipated, but Chairman Powell’s press conference is bound to reaffirm the increasingly hawkish message conveyed in various rhetorical remarks by Fed officials since the March meeting. The dollar is closing out the month of April on an […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Suspected Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention

April 29, 2024

The yen initially plunged overnight to as low as 160.3 per dollar, but suspected foreign currency sales by the Japanese government yanked it back to 156.3 for a net gain of 1.2% from Friday’s closing level. Although not surprised, investors had been surprised Friday when the Bank of Japan chose not to raise interest rates […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: April 27-May 3, 2024

April 26, 2024

Central Banks: America’s Federal Reserve heads a group of scheduled monetary policy reviews that also includes central banks in the also includes those in the Czech Republic, Norway and Armenia. The FOMC will not be updating forecast at this meeting, but Chairman Powell will be holding a press conference Wednesday afternoon following the rate announcement. […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Weak Yen, Better-Than-Expected Tech Earnings, and Bracing for U.S. PCE Data

April 26, 2024

The yen is currently trading near its overnight low of 156.86 per dollar, a trough not experienced since May 1990. The Bank of Japan’s Board meeting failed to raise interest rates further, kept planned monthly JGB purchases at around 6 trillion yen and failed to clarify a possible timetable for additional monetary policy normalization. Adding […] More

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