New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Quiet End to a Stormy Year
December 31, 2024
The chaotic year of 2024 included wars in Sudan, the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, toppled governments in the U.K., Germany, France, the United States and — most unexpectedly — Syria after a half century of brutal Assad-family dictatorship, plus two plane crashes in the year’s final week that epitomized 2024. The year, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
2024 Winding Down With No Major News or Data to Disturb the Occasion
December 30, 2024
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.3% against the euro and Canadian dollar and by 0.2% relative to the Japanese yen and pound sterling. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have dropped three basis points in the United States, two basis points in Japan and Italy, and a basis point in Germany, Great Britain, France and Spain. Bitcoin […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: December 28, 2024-January 3, 2025
December 27, 2024
Central Banks: The Czech National Bank will review interest rate policy on January 3rd. Special Events and Holidays: Hungary’s rotating six-month presidency of the European Union ends on Tuesday and will be followed by Poland’s turn in the first half of 2025. New Year’s Day on Wednesday is the most widely shared holiday around the […] More
Deeper Analysis
Yearend Seasonal Softness of Dollar Against Euro Often Reverses in Early January
December 27, 2024
As documented in several earlier articles on this website such as this one that screened on December 17, 2023, a tendency of the dollar to depreciate in the second half of December and then recover in the first half of January against Europe’s dominant currency is perhaps the most notable example of a seasonal bias […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Firmer Long-Term Interest Rates as End-2024 Approaches
December 27, 2024
With markets reopening in Europe, ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen eight basis points in each of the four largest economies in the euro zone and by seven bps in Great Britain. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likewise eight basis points above its week-earlier level and three bps firmer than yesterday. The 10-year Japanese […] More
Central Bank Watch
Turkish Central Bank Rate Cut Exceeds Expectations
December 26, 2024
Turkey’s one-week central bank repo rate was reduced to 47.5% from 50.0%. The previous change, a 500-basis point hike in March 2024 had culminated a massive 4100 basis points of tightening begun in June 2023. A released statement from the Central Bank of Turkey‘s monetary policy committee defended the size today’s interest rate cut that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Many Markets Remain Closed, Korean Won & Turkish Lira Falter
December 26, 2024
Holiday closures continued Thursday in most of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, South Africa, and other parts of Africa. The dollar strengthened 0.5% against the South Korean won and 0.3% versus the Turkish lira. South Korean President Han Duck-Soo faces impeachment, and the Central Bank of Turkey’s one-week repo rate was slashed by a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Day Before Christmas and Not Much to Report
December 24, 2024
Compared to Monday closing levels, the dollar is unchanged against the euro, yen, and sterling. The greenback is up 0.3% relative to the Australian dollar and by 0.2% versus the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc but shows a 0.4% loss relative to the Mexican peso. Many stock and bond markets particularly in Europe were either […] More
Central Bank Watch
Jamaican Central Bank Interest Rate Cut
December 23, 2024
The latest central bank to announce the result of its last monetary policy review of 2024 is the Bank of Jamaica. Officials there reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.0%. This was the fourth such cut since August. The rate previously had been held at 7.0% since December 2022. Jamaican consumer price […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
The Start of Christmas Week Finds Dollar Atypically Well-Bid
December 23, 2024
More years than not since the onset of flexible dollar rates, the U.S. currency has exhibited a soft tendency in late December. This seasonal bias was especially pronounced early on, as the dollar fell against the Deutsche mark between mid-December and yearend 13 of 14 times from 1974 through 1987. But compared to closing levels […] More
