yearend dollar seasonality
Yearend Seasonality of EUR/USD
January 1, 2026
The most widely followed bilateral relationship in the first quarter century of the era of flexible dollar exchange rates was that against Germany’s Deutsche mark. After 1998 the euro assumed the role of dollar performance bellwether when eleven European countries adopted the euro. The number of economies using the euro has since expanded to 21. […] More
Yearend Seasonal Softness of Dollar Against Euro Often Reverses in Early January
December 27, 2024
As documented in several earlier articles on this website such as this one that screened on December 17, 2023, a tendency of the dollar to depreciate in the second half of December and then recover in the first half of January against Europe’s dominant currency is perhaps the most notable example of a seasonal bias […] More
A Late December Pattern of Dollar Softness Against Europe’s Dominant Currency
December 5, 2022
It’s only December 5th, and the dollar experienced a strong session today as investors second-guessed earlier presumptions that the FOMC will raise its federal funds target by a smaller amount later this week. A cross-current to keep in mind, however, is that the second half of December has historically been a period when the dollar […] More
Yearend Swing in the Dollar Against Euro and/or Mark
December 30, 2010
The dollar tends to fall against the dominant European currency in the second half of December but then recoup ground in the first half of January. These tendencies have occurred too frequently to constitute a coincidence. The seasonal pattern manifested itself almost from the very beginning of floating exchange rates in 1973, although that year […] More
