Markets Focused on Data Releases and Awaiting FOMC Minutes of January’s Meeting
February 18, 2026
The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed today, but a 0.8% rise against the New Zealand dollar (aka the kiwi) has been an exception.
The U.S. DOW, SPX and Nasdaq in futures trading are around 0.3%. Many Asian stock markets remain closed for the extended lunar year holiday. Those that were open tended to rise, including gains of 1.0% in Japan, 1.5% in New Zealand and 0.6% in Australia. European share prices are experiencing a firm session, so far climbing 1.6% in Spain, 1.2% in Italy, 1.1% in the U.K. and 0.8% in Germany. According to one study, major stock markets outside the U.S. have outperformed U.S. equities during the first eighth of 2026 to the greatest extent since the mid-1990s.
The prices of oil, gold, silver and Bitcoin are each higher thus far this Wednesday.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields are unchanged in the United States, Great Britain, Italy and Spain but up a basis point so far in France, Germany, Japan and Switzerland.
The U.S. housing market picked up more strongly in December. Housing starts rose 6.2% to a 5-month high, while permits increased 4.3% to their largest level in nine months. This perkiness likely will be brief given the particularly harsh winter in many parts of the country. U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, less than had been forecast, and were associated with a robust 7.8% average gain in 2025. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which is a leading barometer of future business investment, rose 0.6% in the latest month and by 3.5% in 2025 as a whole.
Growth last month in U.S. industrial production also exceeded expectations. A monthly increase in January of 0.7% was the most in 11 months and resulted in a 40-month high year-on-year advance of 2.3%. Capacity utilization climbed a half percentage point to a 6-month peak of 76.2%.
British inflation receded in January. Consumer prices (down 0.5% on month and down to a 10-month year-on-year low of 3.0%) were aligned with analyst predictions. Retail prices (also down 0.5% on month and associated with a 0.4 percentage point drop in the year-on-year comparison to 3.8%) were a tad lower than forecast. Producer output price inflation dropped 0.6 percentage points to a 7-month low and had a sub-3% core pace of 2.9%. Producer input price inflation of -0.2% was at a 5-month low.
The final estimate of French consumer price inflation in January was unrevised from the preliminary figures of -0.3% on month and +0.3% on year, which was the smallest 12-month increase in 61 months. Core French consumer price inflation of 0.7% fell to a 54-month low.
South African CPI inflation in January ticked down to a 2-month low of 3.5% in January, marking the seventh straight reading in a range between 3.3% and 3.6%. From a peak of 7.8% in July 2022, such had previously dropped to as low as 2.7% in March 2025.
Other South African data reported today showed a 0.4% monthly decline in retail sales that cut the 12-month rate of increase to 2.6% in December from 3.6% in November. For all of 2025, sales climbed 3.7%. Meanwhile, the Sacci-compiled South African index of business confidence, which touched a 174-month high in December, fell to a 3-month low last month.
January is the seasonally weakest month for the Japanese trade balance, but an unadjusted JPY 1.15 trillion deficit last month was only around half as big as forecast and translated into a JPY 456 billion surplus on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Australia’s quarterly wage price index posted a third consecutive quarterly increase of 0.8% in 4Q 2025. The year-on-year 3.4% increase was above a reading of 3.2% in the final quarter of 2024 but below 4.3% posted in the final quarter of 2023.
Producer output price inflation in New Zealand of 3.5% last quarter was below expectations. Producer input prices unexpectedly dropped 0.5% compared to their third quarter level. This reassuring inflation news coincidentally arrived on the same date as a scheduled review of monetary policy at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The RBNZ Official Cash Rate as had been expected was left unchanged at 2.25%, which happens to be its lowest level since July 2022. The last OCR cut had been made this past November and culminated and easing cycle from 6.5% that began in August 2024. A statement issued by Governor Breman anticipates that New Zealand inflation will recede from 3.1% last quarter to the middle of the 1-3% target range later this year and describes economic activity as being in the early stage of recovery. “t. If the economy evolves as
expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time.”
A policy review at the National Bank of Romania yesterday also ended with an as-expected decision to leave that country’s central bank interest rate benchmark unchanged but at a regionally high level of 6.5%. Although at a 6-month low, the January CPI inflation reading for Romania was lofty at 9.6% and far above the year-earlier level of 4.95%.
Minutes from the late January meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee are being released at 14:00 EST today. Officials left the federal funds target unchanged at that review.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: French and British CPI, South African retail sales and CPI, U.S. industrial production and housing starts
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