Deal or No Deal Choice Revised to Deal or Annihilate
September 22, 2026
The past 24 hours have been very volatile for energy prices. A slide in oil prices extended into Monday evening, but a reversal has seen the price of West Texas Intermediate crude climb around $4 in the last six hours to $96.75 per barrel.
General anxiety even if generated by the U.S. president once again brought out the best in the dollar, which has appreciated 0.3% against the euro, sterling, Mexican peso, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar. As noon approaches, 10-year sovereign debt yields show gains of three basis points in France and the U.K., two bps in the United States, Australia and Italy and a basis pint in Germany. Equity markets are narrowly mixed in the United States and elsewhere. Net movements in crypto and precious metal prices are likewise inconsequential.
The National Bank of Hungary’s policy interest rate was kept unchanged at 5.5%. The most recent reduction in August was the fourth this year, displacing a plateau of 6.5% from September 2024 through February 2026 and before that at 13.5% from September 2022 until October 2023. Consumer price inflation in Hungary decelerated from the 25.7% peak in January 2023 to a 116-month low of 1.2% this past July. August saw a minor uptick to 1.3%, but the central bank’s post-decision statement warns,
Although inflation is below the central bank’s target, high energy prices, as well as the uncertain global economic and financial market environments warrant a careful approach to monetary policy. Looking ahead, maintaining the current interest rate conditions is necessary to achieve the inflation target in a sustainable manner.
Bank Al-Maghrib in Morocco left its interest rate at 2.25%, its level since a 25-basis point cut a year and a half ago. Morocco reported marginally negative consumer price inflation in both July and August versus a 14-month high of 1.7% posted in April. “A very high level of uncertainty” factored in the decision not to cut the interest rate further.
Consumer confidence in the euro area remains pessimistic and slipped a bit more sharply between August and September to a 2-month low of -16.5 after improving from a reading of -20.5 in April to -15.5 four months later.
Reports of September consumer confidence elsewhere improved 1.1 index points to a 98-month high in Turkey of 91.9, well above the mid-2022 low of 63.4; edged lower to -13.7 in Denmark from -13.1 in August and -20.1 last November; rose marginally in the Netherlands to an 8-month high of -33; weakened to a 4-month low in Belgium of -10, matching May’s 13-month low; and also printed at a 4-month low in Slovenia.
The orders sub-index in Britain’s industrial trends survey taken this month far exceeded expectations, jumping from -25 in August to a 38-month high of -9. A 69-month low of -45 had been touched in June and repeated in the following month.
Mexican retail sales recorded three straight monthly declines in May-July, trimming their 12-month rate of increase from 4.4% in April to just 1.8%
The Swiss current account surplus widened more sharply than forecast in the second quarter to CHF 23.7 billion. As a percent of GDP, the surplus during the first half of 2026 hovered near 9%, up from the full-year average of 7.1% and seems on course to match, if not slightly exceed, the readings from 2024.
In the U.S., the Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing survey index this month weakened unexpectedly and by six points to a 7-month low of -2.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
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