Holiday Observances But Also Several GDP Reports
February 16, 2026
(152) The Lunar New Year of the Fire Horse has begun. Chinese markets will be closed for the week, but other Asian countries observing the holiday today include Hong Kong, Sout Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Singapore. In North America, U.S. markets are closed for President’s Day, and Canada is observing Family Day.
A lack of leadership due to the confluence of holiday closures has muted financial market movements around the world. The dollar is showing overnight gains of 0.4% against the yen, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc, 0.2% relative to the euro and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling but is down 0.1% against the Canadian dollar and unchanged relative to the Mexican peso, Turkish lira, and New Zealand dollar. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are unchanged in Germany, France, Italy and Spain and a basis point lower in the U.K. and Japan. Share prices rose 0.8% in India but slid 0.2% in Japan. European stock markets are somewhat higher. For those looking for volatility, precious metals and crypto and the the place to go, with silver and gold down 1.4% and 0.5%, but Bitcoin up 1.5%.
Japanese real GDP grew only 0.2% at an annualized rate between the third and fourth quarters of last year. A 0.4% advance in personal consumption accounted for all of the rise in GDP. A 0.9 percentage point drag from inventories was the biggest negative factor. Government expenditures also declined last quarter. The 0.2% quarterly rise of GDP fell well short of reversing a 2.6% annualized contraction in the summer quarter, and left 2025 GDP growth at just 1.1%, which was the fourth straight year with growth of less than 2% following increases of 1.0% in 2022, 1.5% in 2023 and 0.1% in 2024. The GDP price deflator increased 3.4% between 4Q 2024 and 4Q 2025.
Swiss GDP also underwelmed in 2025, with gains of 0.2% in the second and fourth quarters surrounding a 0.5% decline in 3Q. Year-on-year growth of 0.8% in 4Q was the slowest in six quarters, and the 1.4% average rise of GDP in 2025 barely outpaced 1.2% in 2024.
In Thailand, GDP climbed 1.9% last quarter after contracting 0.3% in the third quarter. GDP increased 2.4% on average in 2025 and has averaged 2.5% per annum over the past four years.
Even with the pandemic, Israeli GDP growth had averaged 4.3% per year from 2019 through 2023. Growth in 2025 improved to 3.1% but averaged only 2.0% over the past two years, documenting a halving of growth during the war against Hamas.
Market participants will get their first view of U.S. GDP last quarter and in full 2025 at the end of this week. Some of the other economies that have reported full GDP growth in 2025 include Taiwan (8.7%), Indonesia (5.1%),China and Singapore (each 5.0%), the Philippines (4.4%), Hong Kong (3.5%), Euroland (1.5%) and Great Britain (1.3%). Aside political history, Taiwan’s strong AI-driven growth outlook provides another reason why China wants to reincorporate Taiwan.
Other data highlights reported on this holiday-muted day include the following items:
- The measurement of Japanese industrial production in December was left unrevised. IP slid 0.1% on month following a 2.7% plunge in November but still managed to growth 0.8% in both the fourth quarter and 2025 as a whole. Capacity utilization increased 1.3% on month and 2.2% on year in December but fell 3.0% in 2025 after dropping 2.7% in 2024.
- Industrial production in the euro area fell 1.4% in December (most in 8 months) and posted its smallest year-on-year rise (1.2%) in 4 months. All four of the bloc’s largest economies experienced a monthly drop in industrial production during December.
- Indian wholesale price inflation accelerated almost a full percentage point in January to 1.8%. That was a 10-month high, as were both the manufacturing and food components of the index. The fuel component was its most sub-zero (4%) in 15 months.
- Consumer price inflation in January rose to a 4-month high of 4.0% in Slovakia but fell to a 3-month low of 2.6% in Slovenia and a 6-month low of 9.6% in Romania.
- After moving above the 50 neutral level for the first time in 31 months, New Zealand’s service sector purchasing managers index edged back to 50.9 in January from 51.7 in December.
- the U.K. Rightmove house price index was unchanged from a year earlier in January.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: GDP grow in Switzerland, Indian wholesale prices, Japanese GDP and industrial production
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