Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: June 1-7, 2024
May 31, 2024
Central Banks: Interest rates will be reviewed next in Canada, Poland, India, Russia and, most of all, at the European Central Bank, where a 25-basis point reduction is widely expected. ECB President Lagarde will preside over a press conference afterward. Special Events and Holidays: Elections are scheduled in Mexico on Sunday. India’s election results will […] More
Larry's Blog
The Second Coming Perhaps, But of What? — That Is the Question
May 31, 2024
The driving motives of a polarizing political leader have been summarized as follows: Three traits were basic to his character. These were his belief in violence, his desire for revenge against his enemies, and his sense of insecurity. Most of his ideas grew directly from his own personal difficulties in getting along with society. Even […] More
Central Bank Watch
Rate Cut at National Bank of Kazakhstan
May 31, 2024
The National Bank of Kazakhstan‘s policy interest rate was cut today by 25 basis points to 14.5%, its lowest level in 20 months. The rate previously had been sliced by 100 basis points in the first quarter of this year and 100 bps last year. The peak of 15.75% from October 2022 until August 2023 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Big Data Release Day Including Inflation Measures for the U.S., Euroland and Tokyo
May 31, 2024
Just minutes before the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price deflator, the dollar showed overnight losses of 0.3% against the Canadian and Aussie currencies and 0.2% versus the euro and peso but had also risen 0.2% against the yen and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and sterling. Ten-year German, French, Italian and Spanish […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. First Quarter GDP Growth Revised Lower
May 30, 2024
U.S. growth decelerated slightly more sharply last quarter to 1.3% at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace (SAAR). The earlier estimate had been 1.6% versus 3.4% in the prior quarter 4.9% last summer and 2.5% in calendar 2023. A 2.0% advance in personal consumption, revised down from 2.5% estimated earlier, was the predominant dynamic behind the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Equities Giving Back Further Ground
May 30, 2024
3-1/2 hours prior to Thursday’s open and 2.5 hours before the release of revised U.S. GDP, weekly unemployment claims and an early glimpse of the merchandise trade deficit, U.S. stock futures were down 0.4% in the case of the SPX and Nasdaq and an even greater 0.9% in the DOW. Asian share prices had tumbled […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lessening Appetite for Riskier Assets
May 29, 2024
Disinflation has seemingly stalled. West Texas Intermediate oil has a price back above $80 per barrel. U.S. consumer confidence dealt an unwelcome upside surprise yesterday, and news from the Middle East keeps getting worse. All this is good for the U.S. dollar, which rose overnight by 0.3% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.2% […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets Waiting for the Proverbial Godot, I.E. Fed Easing
May 28, 2024
I found the market’s initially upbeat reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s May 1st press conference puzzling and dismaying and in my opening post the following day wrote Investors had a somewhat more comforting reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference than I, fixating on the fact that he generally doubted there were be a need […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Very Quiet Start to Week with U.S. and U.K. Shut for Holidays
May 27, 2024
Americans are observing their Memorial Day holiday, while British markets are shut for the late spring bank holiday. Minimal data have been released elsewhere. The dollar edged 0.1% lower overnight against the euro, yen, loonie, Swiss franc, sterling and as measured by the DXY weighted index. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are three basis points lower […] More
Uncategorized
Next Week’s Menu: May 25-31, 2024
May 24, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews will be held in South Africa and Kyrgyzstan. Fed Beige Book of regional economic trends in the United States will be published. Fed officials speaking publicly in the week will included Kashkari, Mester, Bowman and Williams. Bank of England Governor Bailey and Swiss National Bank President Jordan also have speaking […] More
