Uncategorized
Weak European Data, Fizzled Oil Price Rally, and an Unexpected Australian Central Bank Rate Hike
June 6, 2023
Concerns about a global demand slowdown depressed the dollar, equities, and the prices of crypto and oil this Tuesday. The dollar fell 1.0% against the Aussie dollar, 0.6% versus the euro and yen, and 0.3% relative to sterling. An exception was the Turkish lira against which the dollar advanced by a further 1.2% overnight. Share […] More
Next Week’s Menu: May 27 – June 2, 2023
May 26, 2023
Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed in Thailand and Kyrgyzstan. Federal Reserve Beige Book of regional economic conditions and minutes from last European Central Bank governing council meeting to be published. Bowman and Jefferson from the Fed and ECB President Lagarde speak publicly during the week. Events and Holidays: Turkey’s runoff presidential election happens […] More
Another Bank of England Interest Rate Hike
May 11, 2023
As expected, the Bank of England’s Base Rate was increased by 25 basis points to 4.50%, although two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to leave the rate at 4.25%. By tightening again on top of 75 basis points of increase earlier this year and rate hikes from 0.10% at the […] More
Australian Central Bank Rate Hike and Probably Not the Last One
May 2, 2023
The Reserve Bank of Australia‘s Official Cash Rate has been raised by 25 basis points and at 3.85% is 375 basis points higher than a year ago. Beginning in May 2022 from a pandemic base of 0.10%, the OCR was increased at every scheduled opportunity except in March 2022, when “the Board held interest rates […] More
Fresh Concerns about the Banking System, But Also Some Good News from Tech Sector
April 26, 2023
First Republic Bank’s deposit base hemorrhaged over $100 billion last quarter. This disclosure sent the company’s stock price plunging 49% overnight. In contrast, the earnings reports of Alphabet and other tech giants surprised on the upside, and the Nasdaq has risen 1.2% in futures trading. In overseas equity markets, Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down […] More
Lack of Market Leadership With Many Market Centers Remaining on Holiday
April 10, 2023
Just about all of Europe remains closed for Easter Monday. So do key current and former elements of the British Commonwealth such as Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and India. South Africans are celebrating Family Day. The dollar has traded narrowly in the absence of market leadership, rising 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% relative to […] More
Next Week’s Menu: April 8 – 14, 2023
April 7, 2023
Central Banks: Policy meetings scheduled at the Bank of Korea and Bank of Canada. Minutes to be published from last FOMC and ECB policy meetings. Holidays and Special Events: Easter Monday in Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and many other members of the euro area. Family Day on Monday in South Africa. The […] More
Great Relief When U.S. CPI Fails to Exceed Expectations
March 14, 2023
The U.S. consumer price report for February was actually not entirely encouraging. But after a strong of worse-than-expected price news, the 6.0% year-on-year rise of total consumer prices matched expectations and represented the eighth decline in a rose from 6.4% in January and 9.1% last June. That was enough to send U.S. stock futures up […] More
Dollar Buoyed by Higher U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates and Reinvigorated Hawkish Fedspeak
March 2, 2023
In overnight action, the dollar advanced 0.6% against the euro, sterling, yuan and kiwi and by 0.5% relative to the yen and Australian dollar. At 4.07%, the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed 8 basis points today and 67 basis points over the four weeks since February 2nd. The Federal Reserve District presidents in Minnesota […] More
Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Release of U.S. Personal Consumption Price Deflator
February 24, 2023
Broad-based dollar strength overnight has yielded appreciations of 0.8% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.7% relative to the yen, 0.5% versus the yuan, 0.4% vis-a-vis the loonie, peso and sterling and 0.3% against the euro. The weighted DXY dollar index is 3.6% above its level at the start of this month. Ten-year sovereign […] More
