Deeper Analysis
September and Third Quarter in Figures
September 29, 2018
Central bank policy rates were raised during the third quarter in the United States, U.K., and Canada but left unchanged in Japan, Switzerland and Euroland. Nevertheless, long-term interest rates climbed noticeably in all six of those economies. Thus, 10-year differentials between the U.S. and the other countries didn’t shift all that much. Moreover, the squeeze […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 28, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Australia, India, Iceland, Poland, Sri Lanka, Romania and Mexico. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations will be published Monday. Powell, Mester, Rosengren, Barkin, Evans and Quarles are among the Fed officials speaking in public next week. Holidays and Events: China is shut all week […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Quarter-End Rush of Data, Italian Fiscal Concerns, and U.S. Supreme Court Drama
September 28, 2018
The new populist government of Five Star in Italy passed a stimulative budget, with a deficit equal to 2.4% of GDP and well above what Italy’s Euroland colleagues wanted to see. In response, the country’s 10-year sovereign debt yield leaped 33 basis points to 3.22%, while the comparable Greek sovereign debt yield went up 16 […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia Tightens Again
September 27, 2018
Amid continuing domestic demand-led growth, a greater-than-desired current account deficit, and and external environment that puts many emerging market currencies and the financial markets at some risks, Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors sanctioned a fifth hike of the seven-day reverse repo rate from its past six meetings. The rate, which now becomes 5.75%, has now […] More
Central Bank Watch
50-Basis Point Increase in Filipino Overnight Reverse Repo Central Bank Rate
September 27, 2018
The Monetary Board at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its key interest rate at a fourth straight scheduled monthly meeting and did so in the face of mounting inflationary risk that has persuaded officials to envisage a higher inflationary path going immediately forward. According to a released statement, today’s 50-basis point rate hike and 100 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
All Eyes on the Senate Judiciary Committee
September 27, 2018
The testimonies of Kavanaugh and Blassey Ford start at 10:00 EDT (14:00 GMT). This has been a busy day already from a central banking and data release standpoint. The dollar overnight firmed by 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.6% relative to the Aussie dollar, 0.5% vis-a-vis the euro and loonie, 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Forecasts
September 26, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee as expected raised its federal funds target by a quarter percentage point to a range of 2.00 – 2.25%. The released statement Repeated the same first paragraph used after the August 1 statement, which deals with economic conditions. Made no changes to the second paragraph that projects how its mandate […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
September 26, 2018
Markets have already priced in the Fed’s eighth increase of the federal funds target to a range of 2.0-2.25%. The increment of each hike has been 25 basis points, so today’s likely move will complete two full percentage points of tightening and be probably enough to warrant deletion in today’s FOMC statement of a characterization of […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank Takes Another Step Toward Interest Rate Normalization
September 26, 2018
In November 2012, Czech monetary policymakers enacted their final interest rate cut of the Great Recession cycle, lowering the 2-week repo rate to 0.05%, which they considered to be the lowest level such could safely go and therefore a virtual zero rate policy. A cap on koruna appreciation at 26 per euro was imposed a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Marking Time Ahead of Likely FOMC Rate Hike Later Today and Kavanaugh Hearing Tomorrow
September 26, 2018
The FOMC policy announcement today at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) is expected to justify another 25-basis point rate hike now and to leave in play a possible fourth move this year in December. New forecasts will be unveiled, and Chairman Powell will preside over a press conference starting at 14:30 EDT to explain the latest […] More
