Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
U.S. Mid-Term Election and the Dollar
October 31, 2018
The result of the U.S. election on November 6th can be viewed in binary terms. Either President Trump and the Republican Party will emerge still controlling all three branches of the federal government or political power to some extent will be shared. Because authoritarian leadership tends to become more deeply entrenched as more and more […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan
October 31, 2018
A statement released by the Bank of Japan Board after this week’s four hour 11 minute monetary policy review left all settings of the policy known as Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control unchanged. Similar to other recent meetings, the decision was taken by a 7-2 vote, with dissents from Yutaka […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
The Usual Month-End Flood of Economic Data but Little Overnight Movement in the dollar
October 31, 2018
The dollar is unchanged against the euro and loonie, 0.1% firmer relative to the yuan and Swiss franc, 0.2% higher vis-a-vis the yen, Aussie dollar and kiwi. Somewhat larger moves have happened against sterling (a drop of 0.5%) and the Mexican peso (a rise of 0.5%). Gold fell 0.6%. Following the rebound Tuesday of U.S. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
More Evidence That European Growth Is Slowing
October 30, 2018
The first reported estimate of third-quarter GDP growth in the euro area was a lower-than-forecast 0.2% quarter-on-quarter uptick, which is only half as much as the pace in the first two quarters of this year. On-year growth slowed to 1.7% from 2.2% in the second quarter and 2.8% in the summer quarter of 2017. Italian […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Volatile Markets This Monday
October 29, 2018
Ahead of the important release of U.S. personal income, personal spending and the PCE price deflator, share prices fell 2.2% in China, 1.5% in South Korea, 0.5% in Hong Kong and 0.2% in Japan but are trading higher by 2.8% in Italy, 2.2% in India, 2.0% in Germany, 1.8% in the U.K., 1.7% in Switzerland, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
October 26, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Japan, the U.K., Brazil, China, and the Czech Republic. BOJ publishes quarterly Outlook for Economic Growth and Prices. BOJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of England Governor Carney, Chicago Fed President Evans, and Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Bullock speak publicly. Holidays, Clock Change, and a 40th Anniversary: Parts of […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. GDP Report Deconstructed
October 26, 2018
Good News: Real GDP expanded by a somewhat greater-than-expected 3.5% between 2Q and 3Q, expressed at an annualized rate (SAAR). The two-quarter pace of 3.8% was the fastest since the middle two quarters of 2014, when a 5.0% pace was achieved. On-year growth of 3.0% was the most in 13 quarters and just 0.8 percentage […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Fresh Wave of Risk Aversion
October 26, 2018
Investors will get their first peak at U.S. third-quarter GDP in less than an hour. Growth likely decelerated from the 4.2% pace in the second quarter but still probably managed to be at 3.0% or a bit above. But markets are reacting most keenly to the Federal Reserve officials’ disregard of President Trump’s criticism of […] More
Central Bank Watch
European Central Bank Accentuates the Cup Being Half Full
October 25, 2018
Today’s ECB Governing Council meeting was not one associated with updated macroeconomic forecasts, but the President Draghi’s introductory statement and press conference expressed confidence in a coming convergence of currently muted inflation on the target of less than but close to 2%. The Council expects continuing positive broadly based economic growth despite some recent weakening […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Focus Turns to Central Banks
October 25, 2018
The dollar this Thursday is narrowly mixed with upticks of 0.2% against the yen and Swiss franc and of 0.1% versus the loonie but downticks of 0.3% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar and peso, 0.1% relative to sterling, the euro, and kiwi. The yuan is steady. Japan’s Nikkei plunged 822 points or 3.7%. Share prices also […] More
