National Bank of Serbia
Fresh Dose of Moderate Risk Aversion Attributed to Covid Concerns
December 9, 2021
Ten-year sovereign debt yields retreated overnight by four basis points in the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain, three basis points in the United States and two basis points in Great Britain. Safe haven demand lifted the U.S. dollar by 0.6% against the Swiss franc and Mexican peso, 0.5% versus the euro and Chinese yuan, 0.4% […] More
Global Stock Markets and Dollar Pause
November 9, 2021
The strength of equities in October and the first week of November was fed by the tapering patience of major central banks, evidence of continuing economic recovery in spite of Covid and inflation, and robust corporate earnings. But new concerns are adding to the pile. Biden’s still-unannounced choice to lead the Fed Board of Governors […] More
National Bank of Serbia
October 7, 2021
Policymakers at the National Bank of Serbia, unlike several other central banks earlier this month, did not raise their key interest rate at the latest review. Following four reductions totaling 125 basis points between March and December last year, such will remain at a record low of 1.0%. However, an initial snugging of monetary policy […] More
A Very Temporary Solution in the U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate
October 7, 2021
Progress has been made on averting a U.S. debt default that would otherwise have occurred in the middle of this month, but the reprieve only buys about two extra months. Even so, two months are better than nothing, so equity markets rallied overnight. And the dollar and price of oil moved lower. The dollar fell […] More
Thursday Spotlight on Central Banks but Attention Also Maintained on Covid and Inflation
September 9, 2021
The dollar fell overnight by 0.3% against the Swiss franc and 0.6% versus sterling but remain unchanged on balance against the euro. Dips of 0.1% occurred against the yen and weighted DXY index. Share prices are higher in the United States and Continental Europe but are down in Great Britain. Earlier in the Pacific Rim, […] More
Yet Another Higher-than-Assumed U.S. Inflation Number and Other Disappointing Data
August 12, 2021
The dollar has edged up 0.1% against the euro, loonie, Swissie, yuan and its weighted DXY index. The dollar climbed 0.5% relative to the Australian and New Zealand dollars but is unchanged so far today versus the Japanese yen. Asian equity markets mostly lost modest ground Thursday, and U.S. share prices are a bit lower […] More
G7 Meetings, ECB Press Conference, and Released CPI and Industrial Production Share Spotlight
June 10, 2021
Climate change and challenges from China and Russia headline the agenda of this year’s Group of Seven summit in Cornwall, U.K.. This is U.S. President Biden’s first summit. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank, as expected, did not modify its accommodative monetary stance nor forward guidance regarding future policy. Key interest rates (a […] More
Bracing for the Potential of More Disruptive U.S. Releases Today
May 13, 2021
Last Friday brought the biggest monthly under-performance of U.S. jobs relative to analyst expectations, and yesterday’s consumer price report crushed market forecasts. Instead of monthly and yearly rises of 0.2% and 3.6%, the total CPI jumped 0.8% on month and to a 151-month year-on-year high of 4.2%. Even worse, core CPI recorded its largest monthly […] More
Spotlight on the United States
April 13, 2021
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% last month, which was marginally more than forecast and the largest month-on-month increase in 103 months. The 2.6% 12-month increase in the CPI was 0.9 percentage points more than in February and constitutes a 31-month high. The energy component advanced 5.0% on month and 13.2% on year, but non-energy service […] More
Projected Euroland Growth in 2021 Revised Lower
February 11, 2021
Many Asian markets were closed today due to holiday observances. China, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea were among the countries observing the lunar New Year, and Japan celebrated National Foundation Day. The lack of Asian market leadership confined the dollar to narrow ranges. Compared to Wednesday closing levels, the dollar is unchanged on […] More
