Euroland CPI
February Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Surveys, Tariff Deadlines and Geopolitical Fallout from Friday’s White House Debacle
March 3, 2025
(202) Financial markets have seen some big moves this first business day of March. The dollar has dropped 0.9% against the euro and sterling and has also lost 0.4% against the Mexican peso and Australian dollar and by 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Korean won, and New Zealand dollar. The weighted DXY […] More
Worst Case German Election Result Averted
February 24, 2025
(203) The German DAX index rallied 0.9% so far on a day that saw many Pacific Rim stock markets falter, including declines of 1.8% in New Zealand, 1.1% in India, 0.7% in Taiwan, 0.6% in Indonesia and Hong Kong, 0.2% in China. U.S. stock futures are somewhat higher but in recent days have failed to […] More
Highly Anxious Financial Market Mood as Trump Gives Tariff Go-Ahead
February 3, 2025
(206) The dollar has soared and equity markets have plunged in response to the weekend White House announcement of 25% U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico and 10% levy against imports from China to go into effect on Tuesday. A tit-for-tat trade war is feared that may spawn higher inflation and interest rates everywhere. Tariffs […] More
Dollar Steps Up as Final Quarter of 2024 Begins
October 1, 2024
Remarks by Fed Chairman Powell yesterday afternoon countered mounting speculation of another 50-basis point rate cut, offering the alternative of two 25-bp moves before yearend as a far likelier scenario. In response, the dollar rebounded overnight by 0.4% against the euro, sterling and kiwi, 0.2% versus the yuan, and 0.1% against the yen, Swiss franc […] More
Big Data Release Day Including Inflation Measures for the U.S., Euroland and Tokyo
May 31, 2024
Just minutes before the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price deflator, the dollar showed overnight losses of 0.3% against the Canadian and Aussie currencies and 0.2% versus the euro and peso but had also risen 0.2% against the yen and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and sterling. Ten-year German, French, Italian and Spanish […] More
Discerning the Future Path When the Choices Are Finely Balanced
May 17, 2024
Investors remain unsure when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and wonder also whether other major central banks will follow their own compass or take their cue from the Fed. The Bank of Japan faces starkly conflicting priorities. Japan’s economy remains fragile, as attested by first quarter GDP contracting at a 2.0% annualized pace […] More
Widening Gap Between Fed and ECB Interest Rate Outlooks, Updated IMF Growth Forecasts, and a Slew of Price Data
April 17, 2024
The dollar and U.S. equities are little changed this Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei-225 index closed down 1.3%, but share prices rose 2.1% in China and 1.6% in Taiwan. European stocks are up, too. Bitcoin’s price plunged 4.4% overnight, extending its drop over the past five weeks to 17%. WTI oil is down 1.2%, but gold is […] More
Lots of Economic Data Around the World to Start New Month
March 1, 2024
U.S. stock futures are marginally softer after Yesterday’s rally. This contrasts with share price gains of 1.9% in Japan, 0.7% in India, 0.6% in Australia and the U.K. so far, 0.5% in Hong Kong and Germany so far and 0.4% in China. Whereas the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shed two basis points, comparable yields […] More
Continuing Pivot Back Into Equities
December 19, 2023
Two themes are dominating financial markets today: 1) speculation that major central banks will cut interest rates next year sooner and by more than now signaled and 2) Chinese debt service strains. Share prices in Japan on Tuesday rose 1.4% in Japan after the Bank of Japan Board unanimously agreed not to change its ultra-loose […] More
Monthend, Quarterend, and a Flood of Rain and Data Reported
September 29, 2023
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.55% just prior to 08:30 EDT, down from Thursday’s intra-day and 194-month high of 4.68%. This respite was aided by some remarks from Fed officials suggesting that coming rate moves have not been decided yet. German, French, Spanish and Italian 10-year sovereign debt yields are 7-8 basis points […] More
