Lots of Economic Data Around the World to Start New Month
March 1, 2024
U.S. stock futures are marginally softer after Yesterday’s rally. This contrasts with share price gains of 1.9% in Japan, 0.7% in India, 0.6% in Australia and the U.K. so far, 0.5% in Hong Kong and Germany so far and 0.4% in China.
Whereas the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shed two basis points, comparable yields elsewhere are up 6 bps in Italy, 4 bps in Spain and France, 2 bps in the U.K. and Germany and a single basis point in Japan.
The dollar rose 0.4% against the yen overnight, but slipped 0.1% versus the euro, sterling and gold. Bitcoin prices advanced another 1.7%, and oil went up 1.5% with Mideast tensions reacting to the latest atrocity in Gaza.
The early look at Euroland consumer price inflation in February produced mixed results. Core CPI and total CPI inflation slowed to a 23-month low of 2.6% and a 3-month low of 2.6%, respectively. Such were at 5.6% and 8.5% a year earlier, by comparison, and the 12-month increase rate of the food component imploded in that span from 15.0% to 4.0%. Service sector prices, however, continue to be sticky, jumping 0.8% on month and their on-year pace falling not even a full percentage point in from 4.8% in February 2023 to 3.9% last month.
Unemployment in the euro area slid 0.1 percentage point to a record low of 6.4% in January but was just 0.2 percentage points below its year-earlier level.
Despite a 1.1-index point increase, consumer confidence in Japan remained deeply in pessimistic territory at 39.1 during February. This measure has been below 40.0 without interruption since May 2019. Japan’s jobless rate held steady at 2.4% in January.
Because of attractive corporate tax advantages offered in Ireland, that economy’s performance is heavily influenced by the global business landscape, which lately hasn’t been encouraging. Irish GDP contracted in each quarter of 2023, topped off by a 3.4% plunge last quarter. On-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 of -8.7% was its most negative in 15 years. Ireland also experienced its first quarterly current account deficit in three year during the latest quarter, even though it had a surplus equal to 9.9% of GDP in full-2023.
GDP growth last quarter was also weak in Lithuania (down 0.1% both quarter-on-quarter and year-0n-year) and the Czech Republic (up 0.2% on quarter and -0.2% versus the same quarter a year earlier).
Swiss retail sales in January recorded their first year-on-year advance (0.3%) since last June. Retail sales in Hong Kong were lower than a year before in January (-1.2%) for the first time in 13 months.
Among price data reported this Friday,
- A 1.0% year-on-year decline in Filipino producer prices in January was the most negative in 31 months.
- Indonesian consumer price inflation rose to a 3-month high of 2.75% in February but remained below its 3.5% target ceiling.
- Among Euroland’s big-four economies, the aforementioned preliminary consumer price estimates for February has harmonized inflation dropping to 2.7% in Germany from 9.3% a year earlier; to 3.1% in France from 7.3% in February 2023; to 0.9% in Italy from 9.8% a year before; and to 2.2% in Spain from 8.6% a year earlier.
Being the first business day of a new month, many manufacturing purchasing manager surveys were reported today. Among Asian economies, Japan’s PMI index of 47.2 remained in contractionary territory and the lowest reading in 42 months. Taiwanese and Thai manufacturing PMIs of 48.6 and 45.3 were both at 2-month lows. Alternatively, China’s Caixin-compiled index printed above the 50 neutral level for a fourth straight month in February and, at 50.9, represents a 6-month high. Vietnam’s reading of 50.4 was also the best score in a half year. The Malaysian PMI of 49.5 was its highest in 18 months, while the Filipino PMI (51.6) was a 2-month high. The Chinese government-compiled PMIs for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities were meanwhile reported lower at respective 2- and 5-month lows of 49.1 and 51.4 in February.
Australia’s manufacturing PMI got revised up a smidgen to a 2-month low of 47.8. The ABSA-compiled South African PMI of 51.7 was its highest score in 13 months and well above expectations.
Euroland’s February manufacturing PMI of 46.5 was better than the preliminary estimate of 46.1 but below January’s 10-month high of 46.6 and thus at a 2-month low. The individual PMIs among eight euro area members ranged from Greece’s 24-month high of 55.7 downward to Germany’s 4-month low of 42.5. The results indicate that the common currency’s year-long manufacturing recession is not yet over despite some good developments such as resilient optimism about the future, continuing disinflation, and a quick adjustment to the disruption caused by risks of using the Red Sea for transportation.
Elsewhere in Europe, the British manufacturing PMI was revised upward to a 10-month high of 47.5. The Swiss PMI improved to a 5-month high but stayed well below the 50 threshold at 44.0. Norwegian and Swedish PMIs printed at a 5-month high of 51.9 and 3-month high of 49.0, respectively. The Czech, Hungarian, and Polish PMI readings increased in February to a 10-month high of 44.3, a 9-month high of 52.2, and a 3-month high of 47.9. Russia’s PMI rebounded from January’s 6-month low to an 85-month high of 54.7, and Turkey’s 50.2 reading represents its best score in 8 months.
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the United States climbed 0.8 points to a 17-month high of 51.5 and surpassed analyst expectations. Comments by New York Fed President Williams have dampened concerns that the central bank might not be finished raising interest rate. He still expects a downward direction to begin later this year.
Brazil’s purchasing managers survey of manufacturers also saw improvement, a 20-month high of 54.1.
Copyright 2023, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Euroland CPI, Euroland unemployment, Japanese consumer confidence, John Williams, manufacturing purchasing managers surveys
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