British GDP and industrial production
Investors More Confident about a Federal Funds Target Rate Hike Next Week
September 11, 2026
Although U.S. August consumer price data could have been worse, the report packed enough warning signs to leave investors more convinced that the FOMC will raise its interest rate target for the first time since July 2023. The overall CPI index increased 0.4% month-on-month, most since April, and a core CPI increase to 0.3% above […] More
Cloudier Near-Term Prospects for Central Bank Interest Rates
July 16, 2026
In a widely expected action and by a unanimous vote, the central bank rate in one country, South Korea, has been raised for the first time since January 2023 (see my review). In another (New Zealand), which on July 8th experienced its first rate tightening since May 2023, a key central bank official said more […] More
First Day After Shutdown Ends Sees a Softer Dollar and Fresh Uncertainties
November 13, 2025
America’s longest federal government shutdown, 43 days in duration, ended last night, only to leave fresh uncertainties in its wake such as the times when many delayed U.S. data reports get released, what such will show, what now happens to the U.S. president’s approval ratings and other domestic political impacts, the lagged fallout on air […] More
Much Data to Digest… U.S. Stock Futures in the Red Ahead of PPI and Many Other U.S. Reports
May 15, 2025
The dollar, U.S. stock futures and 10-year Treasury yield lost ground overnight, reacting in part to greater-than-anticipated U.S. oil inventories last week and OPEC downwardly projected energy supplies. The dollar fell 0.5% below Wednesday closing levels against the yen and Swiss franc. The greenback is also down 0.3% against the Mexican peso, 0.8% versus the […] More
News of Likely Congressional CR Deal to Avert Government Shutdown Outweighs Impact of Further Weak Data and Escalated Verbal Trade War
March 14, 2025
Friday’s positive developments outweighed downside news in the market trenches. Overnight moves in the dollar were mixed, as the greenback gained 0.6% against the yen, 0.4% versus the Swissy, and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling but fell by 0.9% against the peso, 0.7% relative to the kiwi, 0.5% versus the Aussie dollar and 0.4% against the Canadian […] More
Dollar Closing August’s Second Week on an Up Note
August 12, 2022
Prior to the release of U.S. import price data, the dollar was showing overnight gains of 0.6% against the yen and sterling, 0.5% versus the DXY weighted index, 0.4% relative to the euro and 0.3% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar. A number of factors are supporting the dollar: lessened inflation concerns after reports of lower-than-forecast CPI […] More
Intensifying Global Risk Aversion
May 12, 2022
Equities hit an air pocket on Thursday in the Pacific Rim and Europe, closing down 2.2% in Taiwan and Hong Kong, 3.2% lower in Indonesia, and off 1.8% in Japan and Australia, 2.1% in India, 1.6% in South Korea and 1.9% in Singapore. Share price declines of 2.0% or more have so far occurred in […] More
Beijing Promises Stimulus for Smaller Firms, and Investors Await Fed Chairman Powell’s Humphrey Hawkins Testimony
February 11, 2020
A pledge by China’s government to counteract any drag on growth from the coronavirus outbreak with fiscal support aimed at small and midsized companies boosted share prices in the Pacific Rim by 1.3% in Hong Kong and New Zealand, 1.0% in South Korea, 0.8% in Taiwan, 0.6% in India and 0.4% in Singapore and China. […] More
Tariff War
May 10, 2019
President Trump made good on his threat to lift tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China, and Beijing officials promise to answer in kind even as talks continue. Trump erroneously expects the U.S. economy to at worst react neutrally to an escalated tariff war, but that delusion only partly explains his likely motivation. The […] More
Weak European Data Out but Little Fresh News on the Trade War Front
July 10, 2018
The dollar overnight gained 0.4% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, Swiss franc and yuan, 0.2% versus the kiwi and 0.1% relative to the Australian currencies and the loonie. The Trump Administration has flipped the U.S. political theme from tariffs, which rattled markets last week, to the president’s supreme court justice choice announced […] More
