Euroland trade balance
Bias of Monetary Stances Easing in Many Economies
October 16, 2025
Money markets are becoming more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rates several times in coming months, as the risks of weakening labor market conditions outweigh perceived risks of excessive inflation. Yesterday’s published Beige Book yielded five districts recently experiencing flat growth, four showing modest contractions and just three (Boston, Philadelphia and […] More
Ukraine Talks at White House Overshadow Other News and Market Developments Today
August 18, 2025
(178) Last Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Anchorage produced a profound shift in the U.S. President’s position, which again aligns with the Russian viewpoint. As it has been through most of the Ukraine-Russian War, Trump again sympathizes with Putin’s objectives that does not accept the ceasefire-first approach but rather prioritizes Russian grievances against Ukraine’s legitimacy as […] More
European Leaders Huddling About Ukraine, Japanese GDP Exceeds Expectations, and U.S. & Canada Observing Holidays
February 17, 2025
(204) Today is Presidents Day in the United States and Family Day in Canada. These holiday observances will make for a shortened day in global financial markets and are apt to sap them of leadership. European leaders have been invited to Paris to discuss policy regarding the Ukraine war and the wider issue of regional […] More
A Pause after Some Weak U.S. Housing Data
August 16, 2024
A surprisingly frenzied move into riskier assets this week hit a mild speed bump from weak U.S. housing starts and building permits last month. Starts dropped 6.8% on month to a four-year low and were 16% below the year-earlier level. Permits fell 4% on month and 7% on year. Only two days earlier, however, the […] More
Awaiting U.S. Data
July 16, 2024
The data release menu from Europe and Asia today has been comparatively sparse, but U.S. retail sales and import price figures as well as Canadian consumer prices are due momentarily. Meantime, the dollar has hardly changed position, dipping 0.1% against the euro and Swiss franc but firming 0.2% versus the yen. Share prices fell 1.6% […] More
Far-Right Political Ascendance Around World Freaking Out Financial Markets
June 14, 2024
The relationship between investors and left-right political balance is complicated. On the one hand, the very, very rich enjoy the tax policies favored by far-right politicians. At the same time, all market participants acting in concert are clearly unsettled by the swing of voters toward extreme-right politics. The biggest political event of 2024 will be […] More
Capping a Big Week in Financial Markets Driven By Lower Inflation Readings
July 14, 2023
In the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has jumped 1000 points, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has plunged 28 basis points, and the dollar has depreciated 2.7% against the yen and 2.4% against the euro. If inflation continues to recede, the Federal Reserve may not need to lift interest rates as much as […] More
More Banking Uncertainty
March 20, 2023
The share price of First Republic Bank plunged 32.8% on March 17, and over the weekend Swiss authorities arranged for UBS to acquire Suisse Bank. Market expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this Wednesday range from an increase of only 25 basis points to no change at all in the federal funds target. […] More
Marking Time Ahead of U.S. Data and Xi/Putin Meeting
September 15, 2022
There’s been little financial market reaction from data released overnight. Investors are looking ahead to a slew of U.S. releases later today, including retail sales, import prices, industrial production, the Empire State and Philly Fed monthly manufacturing surveys, and weekly jobless insurance claims. Markets will also be keeping an eye on face-to-face talks later today […] More
Spotlight on China Where GDP Contracted by Greater-than-Forecast 2.6% Last Quarter
July 15, 2022
Unlike any other country, China’s government treats Covid with no mercy, and so when the highly contagious subvariant emerged in March, officials resorted to aggressive lockdown tactics to stamp it out, regardless of economic cost. The 2.6% quarter-on-quarter slide was about a percentage point more than expected and the most since 10.5% plunge in the […] More
