Deeper Analysis
July 2024 in Figures
July 31, 2024
From a geopolitical standpoint, July was a tumultuous month. Britain got a new government, and the second round of French elections deprived the Far Right of the win that had seemed inevitable. U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump barely escaped an assassination attempt, and President Biden gave up his quest for a second term, shifting the […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference
July 31, 2024
Today’s FOMC statement modified the prior statement of June 12 in two notable ways. First, labor market conditions depict less tightness, with job gains that were previously seen as strong being depicted now as having moderated and with the jobless rate still low but having moved up lately. Second and even more noteworthy, the last […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Announces Several Policy Changes
July 31, 2024
Just four months ago, the BOJ made a baby step toward normalizing its ultra-loose monetary policy, ending the negative 0.1% short-term interest rate that had prevailed since January 2016, lifting such to 0.0-0.1%. By a 7-2 margin with two dissents in favor of another baby step, the short-term call rate was raised to 0.25%, as […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Second Quarter Euroland GDP Growth and Some Central Bank Rate Announcements
July 30, 2024
A 0.6% rebound of the dollar against the Japanese yen was the singular significant movement overnight in the U.S. currency. The 10-year Japanese JGB yield fell two basis points, moving through 1.0% to 0.99%. Comparable U.S. and British sovereign debt yields didn’t change, but the German counterpart edged a basis point higher. More troubling Chinese […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investors Facing Trio of Central Bank Policy Reviews With Confidence
July 29, 2024
Interest rate decisions arrive mid-week from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday. On the heels of more benign inflation data, the Fed is likely to encourage speculation regarding an initial rate cut at the September meeting. Views regarding whether the BoE will now launch a cycle […] More
Uncategorized
Russian Central Bank Rate Hike
July 26, 2024
The Central Bank of Russia hiked its interest rate by two percentage points to a new high for the move. The rate had last been increased by 100 basis points in December 2023, culminating 850 bps of tightening in the second half of that year. The new 18.0% rate level is just two percentage points […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: July 27-August 2, 2024
July 26, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed by the Federal Reserve and central banks in Japan, the U.K., the Czech Republic, Georgia, Armenia, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices will be published, and Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Japan Governor […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting U.S. PCE Price Deflator
July 26, 2024
Recent equity losses were trimmed ahead of the U.S. open in a bout of bottom-fishing. Share prices closed up 0.9% in Indonesia and 0.8% in South Korea and Taiwan. U.S. stock futures and equity futures in Germany, the U.K. and France are up, too. But Taiwan, which had been closed, saw a slump of 3.3%. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Uzbekistan
July 25, 2024
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s policy interest rate was cut today to 13.5% from 14.0%, where such had been since March 2023. The new rate level is its lowest level since mid-2017. A three-percentage point rate hike in March 2o22 after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia had been followed by one-percentage point cuts in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Several Data Surprises Accentuate Healthier U.S. Economy than Found in Other Countries
July 25, 2024
A 2.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter U.S. growth rate in April-June was twice the pace in the prior quarter and beat analyst expectation by three-quarters of a percentage point. Positive contributions to GDP growth were made by personal consumption (1.6 percentage points ppts) and non-residential business investment (0.7 ppts),and inventory growth more than offset the 0.7 ppt […] More
