Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Coming Week’s Menu: August 31-September 6, 2024
August 31, 2024
Central Banks: Interest rate policies will be reviewed in Canada, Poland and Malaysia. NY Fed President Williams has a public speaking engagement, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book of regional economic conditions gets published. Events and Holidays: German state elections in Saxony and Thuringia are scheduled for tomorrow, September 1, and the U.S. and Canadian […] More
Deeper Analysis
August 2024 in Figures
August 31, 2024
A sharper drop in U.S. long-term interest rates than those elsewhere during August was associated with renewed upward pressure on stocks and broadly spread dollar losses. At the Bank of England, officials among the five central banks featured in the table below were the only ones to hold an interest rate review during August, and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Lot of Data Out Today for Investors to Digest
August 30, 2024
There’s been a typical end-of-month deluge of economic data releases but without significant financial market repercussions. The dollar rose 0.2% overnight against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc but shows no net change against the euro, sterling or Aussie and New Zealand dollars. Following Thursday’s record high close in the DOW, pre-market trading today has […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Strengthening
August 28, 2024
The weighted DXY index of the dollar recorded a larger than usual 0.6% advance today, with gains of 0.7% versus the euro, 0.5% against the yen, 0.4% relative to sterling, and 0.3% against the Swiss franc, kiwi, and Aussie dollar. Investors eagerly await the next significantly clue, which will be Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report later […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Looking for a Fresh Direction
August 27, 2024
The U.S. presidential debate is two weeks away, and the mother of all elections will follow eight weeks after that. A once highly likely victory for Trump has been transformed into a close contest. The FOMC next meets September 17-18. Chairman Powell has all but telegraphed a rate cut then, but it’s size is uncertain […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Some Upbeat U.S. Data Gives Pause to Speculation that Fed Might Cut Rate by as Much as Half Percentage Point in September
August 26, 2024
A 9.9% leap in U.S. durable goods orders in July was twice analyst expectations and more than reversed June’s 6.9% retrenchment. Core non-defense orders for capital goods other than aircraft actually dipped 0.1%, however. Separately, the Dallas Fed’s monthly survey of manufacturers rose sharply to a 19-month high in August. The U.S. data stalled the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: August 24-30, 2024
August 23, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Hungary, Kyrgyzstan and Israel. Bostic of the Fed and Lane of the European Central Bank are among the monetary officials that will be speaking publicly. The Jackson Hole Symposium wraps up on August 25th. Event: The Eurogroup meets at the end of the period. U.S. Economic Data […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks and Commodities Up, Dollar Softer Ahead of Powell’s Speech at Jackson Hole
August 23, 2024
The attention of investors around the world is focused on Jackson Hole, where Fed Chairman Powell is about to speak. Investors attach three times more likelihood that September sees a 25-basis point rate cut rather than a 50-basis point move, but are unsure of what happens after that. Earlier overnight, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Likelihood Rises that Both the Fed and ECB Will Cut Interest Rates Next Month
August 22, 2024
A sizably large downward benchmark revision of U.S. jobs growth between March 2023 and March 2024 is the latest news to solidify the probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September. Investors look to Chairman Powell’s speech tomorrow for additional clarity about the speed of rate reductions thereafter. At the same time, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Wednesday Briefing
August 21, 2024
Central bank meetings today ended with decisions to leave interest rates unchanged in Iceland, Thailand, and Indonesia: The Bank of Iceland’s 7-day rate has been at 9.5% since a 50-basis point hike in August 2023. CPI inflation there remains too high and above expectations at 6.3%. The rate is at a 14-year high and had […] More
