Deeper Analysis
February 2022 in Figures
February 28, 2022
Investors were already on high alert as the month began as a re-intensification of inflationary pressures made the prospect of tighter monetary policies seem more inevitable and likely to proceed more aggressively than imagined at the start of this year. On top of that set of risks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine played out in surreal […] More
Central Bank Watch
Large Rate Hikes at the Central Bank of Russia and National Bank of Belarus
February 28, 2022
Today’s huge increase in the Central Bank of Russia’s policy interest rate from 9.5% to a 20-year high of 20.0% was the second increase this month following a percentage point high in the 11th. In a wide-ranging statement, Governor Nabiullina opens with acknowledging The conditions for the Russian economy have altered dramatically. The new sanctions […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Escalating Financial and Political Chaos in Ukraine and Russia, and Rest of World Feeling Pain, Too
February 28, 2022
Ukrainian and Russian talks in Belarus are unlikely to defuse the military conflict. Russian President Putin seeks to replace Ukraine’s government and has insinuated that he may use nuclear weapons if Nato doesn’t back off. In this high stakes game game of chicken, Nato allies seek to decapitate the Russian ruble and financial markets and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: February 26 – March 4, 2022
February 25, 2022
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed next week in Canada, Australia, and Malaysia. There is a scheduled review also in Ukraine whose status has been made uncertain by Russia’s invasion of that country. ECB Governing Council minutes and the Federal Reserve Beige Book of regional economic trends will be published. ECB Council member Guindos, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Softer Dollar and Stock Futures.. Russian Troops Closing in on Kyiv and Kharkiv Bombed
February 25, 2022
Stocks had bounced late Thursday when President Biden’s unveiled sanctions failed to include a denial of Russia’s ability to use the SWIFT global payments system or actions directed explicitly against Putin. But with the military conflict near Ukraine’s capital and second largest city, U.S. stock futures are currently down 0.4-0.5%. Ukraine’s stock market remains shut, […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Kazakhstan Lifts Key Interest Rate by 325 Basis Points and to Over Five-Year High
February 24, 2022
In Kazakhstan, which like Ukraine had been part of the defunct Soviet Union empire, the central bank today hoisted its policy interest rate by a whopping 325 basis points to 13.50%. That increase follows hikes of 50 basis points in January and a trio of 25-bp moves in the second half of 2021. The Kazakhstan […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stampede Into Safe Havens After Russia Invades Ukraine
February 24, 2022
Overnight advances of the U.S. dollar amount to 6.0% against the Russian ruble, 3.3% relative to the Ukraine hryvnia, 2.8% against the Turkish lira, 2.4% versus the Swedish krona and Brazilian real, 1.8% against the Mexican peso, 1.5% versus sterling, 1.4% vis-a-vis the euro, Korean won and New Zealand dollar, 1.2% relative to the Chinese […] More
Central Bank Watch
New Zealand Interest Rate Hike
February 23, 2022
The 25-basis point hike in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand‘s Official Cash Rate to 1.0% follows similar hikes last October and November and completes the reversal of the 75 basis points of pandemic easing engineered in mid-March 2020. A released statement leaves no doubt that considerable further monetary tightening will be necessary. By two […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Market Pause While Waiting for Other Shoes to Drop
February 23, 2022
Continental European share prices are up 0.6-0.9% so far today in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Futures trading in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq point to rebounds of 0.6% and 1.0%. In Pac Rim stock market trading, China and Indonesia closed up 0.9%, Hong Kong and Australian recovered 0.6%, and Japan didn’t trade due […] More
Central Bank Watch
Magyar Nemzeti Bank Tightens Hungarian Monetary Policy Stance Further
February 22, 2022
Hungary’s central bank policy interest rate has been raised by another half percentage point to 3.4%, matching the increase done in January. From a base of 0.60% through May 2021, the rate was raised in each of the final seven months of last year by a combined 180 basis points. CPI inflation accelerated from 2.2% […] More
