Central Bank Watch
Central Bank Rates in Turkey, Indonesia and South Africa Left Unchanged
January 17, 2019
The weaker global inflationary outlook has reduced lessened the risk of imported inflation and capital outflows that might caused by tighter monetary policy in the United States and other industrialized economies. The last central bank interest rate changes in Turkey, Indonesia, and South Africa had been upward, but officials at all of them held policy […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks Depressed by Lessening Global Growth and Inflation
January 14, 2019
It’s been a hard day’s night for stocks. Share prices overnight fell by 1.4% in Hong Kong, 0.9% in India, 0.7% in China, 0.5% in Taiwan and South Korea, and 0.4% in Indonesia. European equities are down 1.1% in Italy and Spain, 1.0% in Switzerland, 0.9% in Greece and Great Britain, 0.7% in France and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
January 11, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa and South Korea. The Federal Reserve Beige Book on regional economic conditions will be published, and Chairman Powell testifies in Congress. The K.C. and Minneapolis Fed Presidents also speak publicly. The European Central Bank releases results of latest survey of professional forecasters. Holidays and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Uneasy Financial Markets and Lower Dollar
January 11, 2019
Investors perceive many trouble spots, and none are getting resolved. Talks between President Trump and Congressional democrats have broken down, raising expectations that a border emergency situation will be declared. The federal government shutdown is now the longest on record. Fed Vice Chairman Clarida and Chicago Fed President Evans are the latest to signal fewer, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Early 2019 Check-Up on the Dollar
January 10, 2019
Compared to volatile share prices and sovereign debt yields, key dollar relationships like EUR/USD and USD/JYP have been pretty stable lately, and neither of those pairs is trading in historically extreme territory. The euro just passed its 20th birthday. Over the four quadrants of this lifespan, the common European currency had an average value of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Global Slowdown Concerns Remain in Play
January 10, 2019
FOMC minutes yesterday revealed less clarity about the future path of the fed funds target. Some committee members had been hesitant to endorse December’s rate hike, the ninth of this tightening cycle, although a consensus persists that a few more increase are probable in the future. Ultimately, policy will be reactive to the data, and […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Canada: No Rate Change but Tighter Forward Guidance than Predicted
January 9, 2019
Canadian monetary policy remains in a tightening cycle intended to converge on rate neutrality. There have already been five 25-basis point hikes of the overnight rate target beginning in July 2017 and with follow-up moves in September 2017, then January, July and October of 2018. The big decline in the global price of oil resulted […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Today’s Menu: Trade Data and Talks, Central Bank Meetings, and a Continuing U.S. Government Shutdown
January 9, 2019
Equity markets continued to rally after U.S.-Sino lower-level trade talks extended to a third day. Although no details about possible progress were revealed, investors took the unexpected third day of negotiations as a good sign that the dispute can be settled by March and avert a re-escalation of mutual big tariffs by the two countries […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Some Weak Data from Japan and Germany and No End to U.S. Government Shutdown
January 8, 2019
Consumer confidence in Japan ended 2018 at a 25-month low. A 1.9% plunge in German industrial production in November has raised the risk of a second consecutive quarterly contraction of real GDP in Europe’s largest economy. GDP fell 0.2% in the third quarter, and industrial output posted back-to-back month-on-month declines of 0.8% in October and […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
January 7, 2019
The Bank of Israel Monetary Committee reviewed its monetary policy stance for the first time since a 15-basis point interest rate hike announced in late November to 0.25%. That increase had been the first change 3-3/4 years and reversed a cut of same size in February 2015, which had culminated a 310-basis point easing cycle […] More
