Central Bank Watch
Hungarian National Bank
October 16, 2018
As expected Hungary’s central bank rates were left unchanged at the monthly policy review. The last Base Rate Change was a reduction of 15 basis points to 0.90% in May 2016, and the last change in the overnight deposit rate was a 10-basis point cut to -0.15% made in September 2017. A released statement projects […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.K., China, and Saudi Arabia in the News
October 16, 2018
British regular pay inflation accelerated 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in June-August, the highest pace since the start of 2009. This has generated speculation about another Bank of England tightening and lifted the pound 0.5% above yesterday’s closing level. Chinese consumer prices recorded their second straight monthly advance of 0.7% in September, lifting the 12-month […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Equities Down and Bond Yields Rise Again
October 10, 2018
The dollar is comparatively steady, showing no net overnight change against the euro, yuan or sterling and upticks of 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, loonie and Australian dollar and of 0.2% relative to the Mexican peso. Somewhat bigger appreciations have occurred against the kiwi of 0.4% and yen of 0.3%. Share prices fell 1.1 in […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
U.S. Current Account and The Dollar
October 9, 2018
Reducing the U.S. trade deficit is a centerpiece of President Trump’s economic policy agenda, but the imbalance has been widening in 2018. A $570.5 billion census-basis merchandise trade deficit in January – August was $50.4 billion, or almost 10%, larger than the year-earlier deficit. Bilateral deficits grew each by $21.4 billion with Europe and China. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Rise, while Equities Slip Further
October 9, 2018
Markets remain risk averse today. The dollar appreciated 0.4% against the euro, 0.3% versus the loonie, peso and kiwi, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc, Aussie dollar, and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the yen. Share prices fell 1.3% in Japan, 1.0% in Australia, 0.7% in New Zealand, 0.6% in Indonesia, and 0.5% in Singapore and […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel Leaves Central Bank Rate at 0.10% and Signals Reluctance to Start Normalization Anytime Soon
October 8, 2018
Forty four months have elapsed since the last Israeli central bank change, a cut of 15 basis points to 0.10% in February 2015. Inflation is still too low to begin raising the rate. The inflation environment has not changed markedly since the previous interest rate decision, despite slightly lower than expected recent CPI readings: The […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
More Risk Aversion Lends Support to Dollar
October 8, 2018
The dollar has risen today by 0.8% against the Chinese yuan, 0.6% relative to sterling, 0.4% versus the euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the loonie, and 0.1% against the Swiss franc and Mexican peso. Japan (Sports Day) and Canada (Thanksgiving) are observing holiday closures, but China reopened for business following a one-week observance of the Communist Revolution […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
October 5, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Serbia, Peru, Israel and Argentina. Bostic, Williams and Evans are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly. ECB minutes to be published. Holidays and Special Events: Sports Day in Japan, Columbus Day in the U.S. and Thanksgiving Day in Canada fall on Monday. The Autumn World Bank/IMF meetings run […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting U.S. Jobs Report and the Kavanaugh Vote and Watching Sino-U.S. Trade Dispute Intensify
October 5, 2018
Wednesday’s ADP estimate of private employment growth and very low jobless insurance claims suggest a very large jump in U.S. non-farm payroll jobs. The Labor Dept announces the figure at 08:30 EDT. A cloture procedural vote on the Kavanaugh debate mid-day should set the stage for a a full senate confirmation vote Saturday. Best guess […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico Leaves Overnight Interbank Rate at 7.75%
October 4, 2018
Mexican CPI inflation of 4.9% as of August exceeded the 3% target and even the target range ceiling of 4%. Expected inflation is also running above the comfort zone in Mexico, but growth is only around 2%. The central bank interest rate was increased by 250 basis points during 2016, 150 basis points during 2017, […] More
