Zew Institute
U.K., China, and Saudi Arabia in the News
October 16, 2018
British regular pay inflation accelerated 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in June-August, the highest pace since the start of 2009. This has generated speculation about another Bank of England tightening and lifted the pound 0.5% above yesterday’s closing level. Chinese consumer prices recorded their second straight monthly advance of 0.7% in September, lifting the 12-month […] More
Mostly Firmer Dollar Tone
October 17, 2017
The dollar recorded overnight gains of 0.5% against the yuan, 0.4% versus sterling, 0.3% relative to the euro, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie, swissie, and peso, and 0.1% versus the yen and Australian dollar. The dollar edged 0.1% lower against the kiwi, in contrast. Inflation reports released today tended to be above expectations. Consumer prices in […] More
Markets Comfortable with Tomorrow’s Likely Fed Tightening
December 13, 2016
Stocks have risen in Asia, Europe and North America. Ten-year German bunds and British gilt yields are down three basis points. The 10-year JGB yield edged a basis point lower, and the 10-year Treasury is steady. Oil is trading firmly at $52.75 per barrel, albeit down 0.2% from Monday’s close. Gold declined 0.7% to $1,157.70 per […] More
Weaker Dollar and World Share Prices Ahead of Key U.S. Data Releases
August 16, 2016
The dollar fell overnight by 1.3% against the yen (now showing a 99 handle), 1.2% relative to the Swiss franc and kiwi, 1.0% versus the euro (which is near 1.13), 0.9% vis-a-vis sterling (hurt by a rise in British inflation), 0.8% against the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and 0.3% versus the yuan. Japan’s Nikkei closed […] More
Pound Up on Reduced Brexit Fears
May 24, 2016
A new phone poll by Daily Telegraph revealed a widening margin of voters favoring Britain staying in the European Union (55% to 42%), and sterling rose 0.9% against the dollar in response. The U.S. currency otherwise climbed 0.9% against the Aussie dollar, 0.6% versus the kiwi, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to […] More
Greek Default Risk Hangs over Markets Like a Dome
June 16, 2015
Share prices in Asia fell 3.0% in China, 2.1% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Japan and Singapore and 0.7% in South Korea. Equities in Europe have lost a further 3.4% in Greece, 1.5% in Spain, 1.3% in Italy, 1.1% in Germany, 0.9% in France, and 0.5% in Great Britain. Greece’s creditors are not budging from […] More
Chinese GDP and a New Drop in Oil Prices
January 20, 2015
Chinese GDP recorded on-year growth of 7.3% last quarter, 7.3% in the second half of 2014, and 7.4% for the full calendar year. 2014 growth was the slowest since 1990 and below the government’s target for the first time years. Other Chinese data released today showed Industrial production rising at a 3-month high of 7.9% […] More
Extremely Volatile Markets
December 16, 2014
A 650-basis point hike in the Central Bank of Russia’s one-week auction rate to 17% stemmed the ruble’s plunge only momentarily, and the currency posted its greatest daily drop since the 1998 default. Earlier today, it approached 80 per dollar, having only traversed the 40 level in October. There is talk that capital controls or […] More
More Good News Than Bad News
November 18, 2014
Japanese Prime Minister Abe has delayed imposition of the planned consumption tax by 18 months to April 2018 and dissolved parliament effective this Friday in preparation for a snap lower house election presumably on December 21. Abe’s LDP/Komeito coalition was elected in December 2012 to a four-year term. An election far ahead of schedule invites […] More
Central Bankers in Spotlight
September 16, 2014
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day policy meeting today. Chair-person Janet Yellen holds a press conference Wednesday. Macroeconomic forecasts will be presented, and new forward guidance language is anticipated. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the yen’s depreciation had on balance done more good than bad for Japan’s economy. Some firms had complained […] More
