British industrial production and trade deficit

Escalating Fear of a U.S. and Global Inflation

March 10, 2023

The subordination of U.S. monetary policy to an automatic formula tied to money growth in the early 1980’s was a politically effective way to put the economy in a deep recession and finally set inflation on a downward course. Nothing that drastic has been done yet, but investors are increasingly convinced that price stability can […] More

Anticipatory Mood as Calendar Year Winds Down

December 12, 2022

This will be the last week before financial market activity tucks into its lessening volume end-of-year closing of books period. There will be a big drop-off afterward in central banking news and meaningful economic data releases. But investors first have to get through this week’s heavily-ladenĀ  menu of potential market-moving events. The dollar has begun […] More

Anxious Start to a New Week

April 11, 2022

With central banks scrambling to counter inflation that has climbed far higher than anticipated, predictions are proliferating of a sharp economic slowdown or even a recession in the United States and many other economies. U.S. consumer price inflation is expected to have accelerated a half percentage point or more in March from February’s 7.9%. The […] More

Inflation Taking No Days Off for the Holiday

November 11, 2021

Today marks the 103rd anniversary of the “war to end all wars,” which is known by a variety of different names — for instance, Armistice Day in France and Germany, Remembrance Day in Canada and Veterans Day here in the United States. U.S. stock markets will be open, but no U.S. data releases are planed. […] More

Equities Down and Bond Yields Rise Again

October 10, 2018

The dollar is comparatively steady, showing no net overnight change against the euro, yuan or sterling and upticks of 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, loonie and Australian dollar and of 0.2% relative to the Mexican peso. Somewhat bigger appreciations have occurred against the kiwi of 0.4% and yen of 0.3%. Share prices fell 1.1 in […] More

Post-G7 Market Reaction Suppressed ahead of Tomorrow’s Kim-Trump Meeting and Several Key Central Bank Policy Reviews Later this Week

June 11, 2018

The annual summit of Group of Seven leaders over the weekend went poorly (see my review), but share prices mostly rose today in Asia and Europe. Stocks advanced 0.8% in South Korea, 0.5% in Japan, 0.4% in New Zealand, 0.3% in Hong Kong, 0.2% in Singapore, and 0.1% in India but slipped 0.5% in China […] More

Bond Market Slide Weighing on Dollar and Stocks

January 10, 2018

Rising long-term interest rates caused by growing optimism about global growth prospects is now depressing the dollar and stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield is 18 basis points above the end-2017 level just seven business days into 2018. Another Treasury market depressant has been an apparent Chinese decision to suspend purchases of U.S. government debt. The […] More

Softer Pound

May 11, 2017

Sterling fell 0.4% against the dollar overnight. The ten-year British gilt yield has firmed two basis points, and the Ftse is little changed. The Bank of England left policy unchanged but suggesting greater monetary policy tightening during the forecast period than is implied in market interest rates. Several British economic statistics were reported. Similar to […] More

Awaiting U.S. Jobs Data

September 6, 2013

The dollar has lost 0.8% against the kiwi, 0.6% versus the loonie, 0.4% relative to the yen and Australian dollar and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc.  The dollar is also unchanged against sterling, the euro and yuan. Japan’s Nikkei slumped 1.5% in part on unconfirmed news that Tokyo, heretofore the front-runner, is not going to […] More